Serie A Gameweek 33 Sun, Apr 25 · 17:30 Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce
Lecce 12th · 9 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
AC Milan 4th · 15 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel925 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Lecce—%
Draw—%
AC Milan—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Lecce)

Forecast from 10 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Lecce and AC Milan. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

LecceAC Milan
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
28 Current StrengthIn forecast 66
36 AttackIn forecast 72
30 DefenceIn forecast 69
35 Form indexContext 74
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lecce

Attack—
Defense risk—

AC Milan

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LecceAC Milan
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.83
1.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19
-0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.17
57% Scored inContext 100%
29% Clean sheetsContext 29%
11.14 ShotsContext 12.29
4.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.71
42% On target shareContext 38%
7.14 Shots in the boxContext 7.83
64% Box shareContext 67%
12% ConversionContext 16%
2.60 OffsidesContext 1.60
14.86 Shots allowedContext 9.57
6.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.57
2.83 BlocksContext 2.67
4.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
69% Save rateContext 75%
40% PossessionIn forecast 60%
346 PassesContext 583
271 Accurate passesContext 522
78% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.78 Team ratingContext 6.98
12.86 FoulsContext 9.29
9.14 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.86
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.97
1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27
-0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.07
60% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
10.40 ShotsContext 13.20
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
43% On target shareContext 38%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.00
68% Box shareContext 69%
13% ConversionContext 14%
2.50 OffsidesContext 1.86
13.80 Shots allowedContext 11.70
5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10
2.67 BlocksContext 3.44
3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44
69% Save rateContext 78%
37% PossessionIn forecast 57%
312 PassesContext 556
239 Accurate passesContext 498
77% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.78 Team ratingContext 6.98
12.10 FoulsContext 9.90
9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lecce
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,574 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 35 · 6 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Udinese3–00.9 xPts
  • L11 OctH · Bologna1–21.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · AC Milan0–30.5 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Monza3–21.7 xPts
  • L7 SepA · Cagliari0–11.1 xPts
AC Milan
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel925 km496 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Atalanta3–22.1 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Red Bull Salzburg4–01.4 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Sassuolo1–11.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Lecce3–02.3 xPts
  • L16 SepH · Benfica0–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Lecce AC Milan
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 10Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Serie A 2026-2027, 18 Apr7Serie A 2026-2027, 18 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km925 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways3,574 km496 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lecce Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Udinese (A) 3–0, 18 Oct
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 4E. Gaspar 17Danilo Veiga
14Y. Maleh 79Oumar Ngom 29L. Coulibaly
7A. Fatah 69W. Geubbels 11K. N’Dri
AC Milan Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Atalanta (H) 3–2, 18 Oct
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović 5K. De Winter 34Mario Gila
22Diego Moreira 14L. Modrić 80Y. Musah 21S. Chukwueze
11C. Pulišić 9Gonçalo Ramos 12A. Rabiot

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Lecce Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
AC Milan Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Lecce · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
1.33
Conceded
2.67
AC Milan · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-3-0
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentLecceAC Milan
Venezia W 2–0 A W 2–0 H
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

0 Lecce wins2 draws7 AC Milan wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.33 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets0% · 67%
  • 20 Sep 2026AC Milan3–0Lecce
  • 18 Jan 2026AC Milan1–0Lecce
  • 29 Aug 2025Lecce0–2AC Milan
  • 8 Mar 2025Lecce2–3AC Milan
  • 27 Sep 2024AC Milan3–0Lecce
  • 6 Apr 2024AC Milan3–0Lecce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

LecceAC MilanForecast
Scored per game 1.292.00
Conceded per game 1.711.00
Match goals 3.003.00
Over 1.5 86%100%
Over 2.5 71%57%
Over 3.5 29%29%
Both teams scored 29%71%
Clean sheets 29%29%
Failed to score 43%0%
Games77
LecceAC MilanForecast
Scored per game 1.301.90
Conceded per game 1.501.10
Match goals 2.803.00
Over 1.5 70%100%
Over 2.5 60%60%
Over 3.5 30%30%
Both teams scored 30%60%
Clean sheets 30%30%
Failed to score 40%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LecceAC MilanLeague
Corners
Corners won4.573.00
Corners conceded3.293.14
Match total7.866.149.38
Over 8.529% 2/70% 0/7
Over 9.529% 2/70% 0/7
Over 10.529% 2/70% 0/7
Cards
Cards1.861.86
Opponent cards0.861.43
Match total2.723.293.43
Over 3.543% 3/757% 4/7
Over 4.514% 1/729% 2/7
LecceAC MilanLeague
Corners
Corners won4.203.70
Corners conceded3.803.10
Match total8.006.809.38
Over 8.530% 3/1020% 2/10
Over 9.530% 3/1020% 2/10
Over 10.520% 2/100% 0/10
Cards
Cards2.001.80
Opponent cards0.801.80
Match total2.803.603.43
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.520% 2/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Lecce7 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
3 2 0-15
1 5 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 4 61-75
2 1 76-90
AC Milan7 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
9 2 61-75
1 3 76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
5 3 0-15
2 6 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 4 61-75
3 2 76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
3 1 0-15
1 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
10 2 61-75
1 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Serie A

View all fixtures →
Lazio Como Apr 2517:30 Cagliari Monza Apr 2517:30 Napoli Udinese Apr 2517:30 Genoa Sassuolo Apr 2517:30 Juventus Fiorentina Apr 2517:30 Inter Bologna Apr 2517:30 Frosinone AS Roma Apr 2517:30 Venezia Torino Apr 2517:30 Parma Atalanta Apr 2517:30 Lecce AC Milan Apr 2517:30