Lecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were slight favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 23). Absences weigh more on AS Roma. Lecce had 3 days of rest, AS Roma 2.9 and had to travel 504 km.
Away travel504 kmRest days3 · 2.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lecce19%
Draw24%
AS Roma57%
Lecce18%
Draw23%
AS Roma58%
Lecce18%
Draw25%
AS Roma58%
Lecce14%
Draw22%
AS Roma64%
Lecce19%
Draw23%
AS Roma58%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lecce)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyJuan Luca Sacchi
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 5
Team strength
Lecce
AS Roma
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
36
AttackIn forecast
72
30
DefenceIn forecast
75
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LecceAS Roma
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
1.35
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
53%
Scored inContext
67%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
39%
9.88
ShotsContext
13.11
2.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
26%
On target shareContext
37%
5.53
Shots in the boxContext
9.35
56%
Box shareContext
69%
7%
ConversionContext
9%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.85
12.35
Shots allowedContext
10.83
4.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.59
BlocksContext
3.00
3.19
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.35
69%
Save rateContext
85%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
335
PassesContext
485
257
Accurate passesContext
407
77%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.29
FoulsContext
14.22
13.76
Fouls sufferedContext
14.67
1.76
Yellow cardsContext
2.06
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
50%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.20
ShotsContext
11.60
2.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
26%
On target shareContext
40%
5.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.89
51%
Box shareContext
71%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.57
12.60
Shots allowedContext
10.90
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
4.20
BlocksContext
4.00
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
70%
Save rateContext
86%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
336
PassesContext
471
256
Accurate passesContext
390
76%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.60
FoulsContext
13.40
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lecce
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,006 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
AS Roma
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel504 km961 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lecce |
AS Roma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 13 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Serie A 2025-2026, 3 Jan | 2.9Serie A 2025-2026, 3 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 504 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,006 km | 961 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.8 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
4E. Gaspar
17Danilo Veiga
93Y. Maleh
20Y. Ramadani
77M. Kaba
23R. Sottil
22F. Camarda
19L. Banda
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
19M. Çelik
24J. Ziółkowski
87D. Ghilardi
92S. El Shaarawy
17K. Koné
61N. Pisilli
43Wesley
4B. Cristante
11E. Ferguson
21P. Dybala
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lecce
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AS Roma
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lecce+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- AS Roma-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Lecce · Home
1.00points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-4
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.22
AS Roma · Away
1.67points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-0-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.78
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 17 this season
| Opponent | Lecce | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Como | L 0–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| Pisa | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Cremonese | L 0–2 A | W 3–1 A |
| Torino | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Lazio | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Verona | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Fiorentina | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Napoli | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Udinese | L 2–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Sassuolo | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Parma | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Bologna | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Cagliari | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Atalanta | L 1–4 A | L 0–1 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Genoa | D 0–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 17 of 51 · 1.00 per game | 33 of 51 · 1.94 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Lecce wins2 draws4 AS Roma wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.67
Over 2.550%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 33%
- 29 Mar 2025Lecce0–1AS Roma
- 7 Dec 2024AS Roma4–1Lecce
- 1 Apr 2024Lecce0–0AS Roma
- 5 Nov 2023AS Roma2–1Lecce
- 11 Feb 2023Lecce1–1AS Roma
- 9 Oct 2022AS Roma2–1Lecce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lecce | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.35 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.06 | 1.78 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 59% | 39% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 28% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 28% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 39% | |
| Failed to score | 47% | 33% | |
| Games | 17 | 18 |
| Lecce | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.30 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lecce | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.06 | 5.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.29 | 3.44 | |
| Match total | 10.35 | 8.61 | 8.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 15/17 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 12/17 | 28% 5/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 7/17 | 28% 5/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.76 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.76 | 2.28 | |
| Match total | 3.52 | 4.45 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 9/17 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 6/17 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Lecce | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 8.00 | 8.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.70 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Luca Sacchi Italy · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.90
Red cards0.00league 0.17
Cards 5+20%league 38%
Fouls28.2league 25.9
Penalties0.20league 0.31
Home wins40%league 39%
Lecce1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W12 Dec 25H · Pisa1–02
AS RomaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lecce17 games · scored 12 · conceded 23
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
8
61-75
3
4
76-90
AS Roma18 games · scored 20 · conceded 12
2
3
0-15
5
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
