Lecce vs Atalanta – 6 Apr 2026

Serie A Gameweek 31 Mon, Apr 6 · 14:00 Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce

Lecce 17th · 27 pts · 30 played LLWLL

0–3Full time

Atalanta 7th · 50 pts · 30 played WLDDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atalanta were slight favourites.

Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lecce. Lecce had 14.8 days of rest, Atalanta 15 and had to travel 911 km.

Away travel911 kmRest days14.8 · 15Matches / 14d0 · 0

Lecce23%

Draw27%

Atalanta50%

Expected goals 0.96 – 1.54

Lecce19%

Draw24%

Atalanta57%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.84

Lecce24%

Draw27%

Atalanta49%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.51

Lecce18%

Draw25%

Atalanta57%

Expected goals 0.86 – 1.72

Lecce24%

Draw25%

Atalanta51%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.69

Over 2.5 46% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lecce)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyFederico La Penna

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 48

Team strength

Lecce

Atalanta

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

36 AttackIn forecast 48

30 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lecce

Atalanta

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.37

1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

0.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

50% Scored inContext 83%

27% Clean sheetsContext 37%

9.60 ShotsContext 14.50

2.59 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.79

24% On target shareContext 31%

5.55 Shots in the boxContext 9.60

55% Box shareContext 65%

7% ConversionContext 9%

1.63 OffsidesContext 2.33

12.70 Shots allowedContext 11.57

4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.50 BlocksContext 3.14

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.37

68% Save rateContext 81%

42% PossessionIn forecast 55%

323 PassesContext 482

243 Accurate passesContext 410

75% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.94

12.40 FoulsContext 10.63

13.97 Fouls sufferedContext 10.33

1.63 Yellow cardsContext 1.63

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

0.80 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.82

+0.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

50% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

9.50 ShotsContext 13.30

2.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

24% On target shareContext 38%

5.89 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

54% Box shareContext 70%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.40 OffsidesContext 1.88

12.80 Shots allowedContext 13.60

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

3.30 BlocksContext 3.20

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75

65% Save rateContext 67%

39% PossessionIn forecast 51%

306 PassesContext 476

226 Accurate passesContext 406

74% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.79

12.30 FoulsContext 9.80

13.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lecce

Rest14.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atalanta

Rest15 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel911 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lecce	Atalanta
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14.8Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Mar	15Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	911 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	5.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30W. Falcone(G)

3C. Ndaba 44Tiago Gabriel 5J. Siebert 17Danilo Veiga

79Oumar Ngom 20Y. Ramadani

19L. Banda 8S. Fofana 50S. Pierotti

99W. Cheddira

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

23S. Kolašinac 19B. Djimsiti 42G. Scalvini

47L. Bernasconi 13Éderson 15M. de Roon 77D. Zappacosta

59N. Zalewski 17C. De Ketelaere

90N. Krstović

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lecce Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Atalanta Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lecce-0.7 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Atalanta+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Lecce · Home 1.07points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 4-4-7
Scored: 0.73
Conceded: 1.27

Atalanta · Away 1.29points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 4-6-4
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Lecce	Atalanta
AS Roma	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	W 1–0 H
Napoli	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A
Cremonese	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
Como	L 1–3 AL 0–3 H	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H
Inter	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A	D 1–1 AL 0–1 H
Cagliari	W 2–0 AL 1–2 H	W 2–1 H
Udinese	W 2–1 HL 2–3 A	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A
Torino	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H	W 2–0 HW 3–0 A
Lazio	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H
AC Milan	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	D 1–1 H
Parma	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A	W 4–0 HD 1–1 A
Juventus	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Pisa	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H
Verona	D 0–0 H	W 1–0 HL 1–3 A
Fiorentina	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 H
Sassuolo	D 0–0 H	L 1–2 AL 0–3 H
Bologna	D 2–2 H	W 2–0 A
Genoa	D 0–0 A	W 1–0 A
Points	27 of 87 · 0.93 per game	47 of 87 · 1.62 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Lecce wins1 draws4 Atalanta wins

Goals per game0.86 – 2.00 Over 2.557% Both scored57% Clean sheets0% · 43%

14 Sep 2025Atalanta4–1Lecce
27 Apr 2025Atalanta1–1Lecce
19 Aug 2024Lecce0–4Atalanta
18 May 2024Lecce0–2Atalanta
30 Dec 2023Atalanta1–0Lecce
19 Feb 2023Atalanta1–2Lecce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lecce	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.37
Conceded per game	1.33	0.90
Match goals	2.03	2.27	2.50
Over 1.5	60%	77%
Over 2.5	37%	37%	46%
Over 3.5	13%	17%
Both teams scored	37%	53%	49%
Clean sheets	27%	37%
Failed to score	50%	17%
Games	30	30

	Lecce	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.60
Conceded per game	1.20	0.80
Match goals	2.00	2.40	2.50
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	46%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	49%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	50%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lecce	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	4.28	5.79
Corners conceded	5.55	4.31
Match total	9.83	10.10	8.67
Over 8.5	76% 22/29	66% 19/29
Over 9.5	62% 18/29	52% 15/29
Over 10.5	45% 13/29	41% 12/29
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.70
Opponent cards	1.50	1.57
Match total	3.20	3.27	3.92
Over 3.5	43% 13/30	47% 14/30
Over 4.5	23% 7/30	10% 3/30

	Lecce	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	3.44	4.60
Corners conceded	6.11	3.40
Match total	9.55	8.00	8.67
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.60
Opponent cards	1.20	2.30
Match total	2.40	3.90	3.92
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Federico La Penna Italy · 48 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.27league 3.73

Red cards0.17league 0.20

Cards 5+42%league 36%

Fouls26.1league 25.1

Penalties0.29league 0.30

Home wins42%league 39%

Lecce3 with this referee

Record0-2-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 1

D27 Apr 25A · Atalanta1–11
D27 Nov 23A · Verona2–22
L21 Jan 23A · Verona0–20

Atalanta5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 2

L28 Dec 25H · Inter0–12
D27 Apr 25H · Lecce1–11
W6 Dec 24H · AC Milan2–12
L3 Mar 24H · Bologna1–23
W9 Dec 23H · AC Milan3–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.