Lecce vs Cremonese – 8 Mar 2026

Serie A Gameweek 28 Sun, Mar 8 · 11:30 Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce

Lecce 18th · 24 pts · 27 played LWWLL

2–1Full time

Cremonese 17th · 24 pts · 27 played LLDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lecce were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Cremonese. Lecce had 7.9 days of rest, Cremonese 7 and had to travel 851 km.

Away travel851 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2

Lecce45%

Draw29%

Cremonese26%

Expected goals 1.36 – 0.95

Lecce47%

Draw26%

Cremonese27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Lecce44%

Draw29%

Cremonese26%

Expected goals 1.32 – 0.95

Lecce39%

Draw30%

Cremonese32%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.07

Lecce48%

Draw27%

Cremonese26%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.08

Over 2.5 41% Both score 46% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lecce)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalySimone Sozza

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.47
Matches 90

Team strength

Lecce

Cremonese

23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

36 AttackIn forecast 16

30 DefenceIn forecast 30

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Cremonese

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lecce

Cremonese

0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.78

1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.41

0.73 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.61

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

48% Scored inContext 48%

30% Clean sheetsContext 26%

9.59 ShotsContext 8.78

2.58 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.23

24% On target shareContext 35%

5.38 Shots in the boxContext 5.52

53% Box shareContext 58%

7% ConversionContext 9%

1.56 OffsidesContext 2.35

12.85 Shots allowedContext 16.93

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.56

3.56 BlocksContext 4.96

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.35

68% Save rateContext 76%

43% PossessionIn forecast 45%

330 PassesContext 368

250 Accurate passesContext 287

76% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.73

12.22 FoulsContext 12.93

13.59 Fouls sufferedContext 12.41

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 27 and 27 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.30

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

0.64 xGVia Att/Def 0.84

1.64 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.82

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.54

40% Scored inContext 20%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

9.10 ShotsContext 9.70

2.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33

20% On target shareContext 31%

5.11 Shots in the boxContext 6.56

48% Box shareContext 60%

7% ConversionContext 3%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.29

13.70 Shots allowedContext 19.00

4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50

3.50 BlocksContext 5.80

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.70

68% Save rateContext 72%

41% PossessionIn forecast 43%

321 PassesContext 360

239 Accurate passesContext 279

74% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.67

12.10 FoulsContext 13.40

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lecce

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,909 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Cremonese

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel851 km825 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lecce	Cremonese
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Feb	7Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	851 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,909 km	825 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	8.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 5J. Siebert 17Danilo Veiga

79Oumar Ngom 20Y. Ramadani

19L. Banda 29L. Coulibaly 50S. Pierotti

9N. Štulić

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Cremonese Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1E. Audero(G)

5S. Luperto 55F. Folino 15M. Bianchetti

3G. Pezzella 29Y. Maleh 27J. Vandeputte 2M. Thorsby 4T. Barbieri

90F. Bonazzoli 10J. Vardy

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lecce Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Cremonese Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lecce+1.0 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Cremonese-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Lecce · Home 0.93points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 3-4-7
Scored: 0.64
Conceded: 1.29

Cremonese · Away 0.86points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-8
Scored: 0.71
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Lecce	Cremonese
Como	L 1–3 AL 0–3 H	D 1–1 A
Inter	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A	L 0–2 HL 1–4 A
Cagliari	W 2–0 AL 1–2 H	D 2–2 H
Udinese	W 2–1 HL 2–3 A	D 1–1 H
Torino	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H	L 0–1 A
Lazio	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A	D 0–0 A
AC Milan	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	L 0–2 HW 2–1 A
Parma	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A	D 0–0 H
AS Roma	L 0–2 H	L 0–3 AL 1–3 H
Juventus	D 1–1 A	L 0–5 AL 1–2 H
Pisa	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 A
Verona	D 0–0 H	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A
Fiorentina	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 A
Napoli	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 H
Sassuolo	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 AW 3–2 H
Bologna	D 2–2 H	W 3–1 A
Atalanta	L 1–4 A	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Genoa	D 0–0 A	D 0–0 HW 2–0 A
Points	24 of 78 · 0.92 per game	21 of 78 · 0.81 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Lecce wins1 draws1 Cremonese wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%

7 Dec 2025Cremonese2–0Lecce
4 Feb 2023Cremonese0–2Lecce
2 Oct 2022Lecce1–1Cremonese

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lecce	Cremonese	Forecast
Scored per game	0.67	0.78
Conceded per game	1.33	1.41
Match goals	2.00	2.19	2.31
Over 1.5	59%	67%
Over 2.5	33%	37%	41%
Over 3.5	15%	22%
Both teams scored	33%	41%	46%
Clean sheets	30%	26%
Failed to score	52%	52%
Games	27	27

	Lecce	Cremonese	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	0.30
Conceded per game	1.30	1.80
Match goals	1.90	2.10	2.31
Over 1.5	60%	60%
Over 2.5	30%	40%	41%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	20%	46%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	60%	80%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lecce	Cremonese	League
Corners
Corners won	4.27	3.42
Corners conceded	5.42	6.69
Match total	9.69	10.11	8.78
Over 8.5	77% 20/26	69% 18/26
Over 9.5	62% 16/26	46% 12/26
Over 10.5	42% 11/26	31% 8/26
Cards
Cards	1.74	2.04
Opponent cards	1.52	1.48
Match total	3.26	3.52	3.94
Over 3.5	44% 12/27	41% 11/27
Over 4.5	26% 7/27	22% 6/27

	Lecce	Cremonese	League
Corners
Corners won	2.78	3.40
Corners conceded	5.67	7.00
Match total	8.45	10.40	8.78
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.80
Opponent cards	1.10	0.70
Match total	2.80	2.50	3.94
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 90 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.22league 3.77

Red cards0.14league 0.19

Cards 5+42%league 36%

Fouls24.8league 25.1

Penalties0.47league 0.31

Home wins39%league 39%

Lecce4 with this referee

Record1-0-3 Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 2

L1 Feb 26A · Torino0–12
L19 Apr 25H · Como0–33
W31 Jan 25A · Parma3–12
L23 Oct 22A · Bologna0–22

Cremonese1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D15 Feb 26H · Genoa0–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.