Lecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lecce were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Lecce had 14 days of rest, Sassuolo 14.8 and had to travel 784 km.
Away travel784 kmRest days14 · 14.8Matches / 14d1 · 0
Lecce43%
Draw29%
Sassuolo28%
Lecce44%
Draw27%
Sassuolo29%
Lecce42%
Draw29%
Sassuolo29%
Lecce36%
Draw29%
Sassuolo35%
Lecce45%
Draw27%
Sassuolo29%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lecce)
No weather data yet
RefereeValerio Crezzini
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 3
Team strength
Lecce
Sassuolo
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
36
AttackIn forecast
41
30
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LecceSassuolo
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
0.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
67%
Scored inContext
83%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
9.17
ShotsContext
9.50
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
29%
On target shareContext
42%
5.83
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
65%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.67
Shots allowedContext
14.17
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
2.83
BlocksContext
3.50
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
66%
Save rateContext
79%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
320
PassesContext
366
244
Accurate passesContext
301
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.17
FoulsContext
11.83
13.83
Fouls sufferedContext
14.83
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.69
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.40
ShotsContext
9.00
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
29%
On target shareContext
37%
5.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
58%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.40
Shots allowedContext
12.80
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.90
BlocksContext
3.80
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
75%
Save rateContext
77%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
311
PassesContext
342
237
Accurate passesContext
272
76%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.70
FoulsContext
11.60
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lecce
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,620 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Sassuolo
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel784 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lecce |
Sassuolo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 14.8Serie A 2025-2026, 3 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 784 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,620 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
4E. Gaspar
17Danilo Veiga
10M. Berisha
20Y. Ramadani
29L. Coulibaly
7Tete Morente
9N. Štulić
50S. Pierotti
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
3J. Doig
21J. Idzes
19F. Romagna
6S. Walukiewicz
42K. Thorstvedt
18N. Matić
40A. Vranckx
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
10D. Berardi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lecce
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sassuolo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lecce+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Sassuolo-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Lecce · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Sassuolo · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Lecce wins1 draws2 Sassuolo wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.75
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 21 Apr 2024Sassuolo0–3Lecce
- 6 Oct 2023Lecce1–1Sassuolo
- 25 Feb 2023Lecce0–1Sassuolo
- 20 Aug 2022Sassuolo1–0Lecce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lecce | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.67 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Lecce | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.67 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lecce | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 2.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 7.33 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 6/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.84 | 3.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Lecce | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.90 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 8.00 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.50 | 3.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Valerio Crezzini 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.62
Red cards0.00league 0.13
Cards 5+33%league 35%
Fouls27.7league 26.2
Penalties0.33league 0.25
Home wins67%league 38%
LecceNo previous matches with this referee.
SassuoloNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lecce6 games · scored 5 · conceded 10
2
0-15
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
46-60
5
61-75
2
1
76-90
Sassuolo6 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
5
61-75
2
1
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
