Leeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 72). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Leeds. Leeds had 5.8 days of rest, Brighton 8 and had to travel 341 km.
Away travel341 kmRest days5.8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Leeds41%
Draw25%
Brighton34%
Leeds38%
Draw27%
Brighton35%
Leeds41%
Draw25%
Brighton34%
Leeds33%
Draw25%
Brighton42%
Leeds41%
Draw26%
Brighton33%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Oliver
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 200
Team strength
Leeds
Brighton
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
79
73
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
69
AttackIn forecast
87
77
DefenceIn forecast
85
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBrighton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LeedsBrighton
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.44
1.47
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
69%
Scored inContext
81%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
12.72
ShotsContext
12.86
4.08
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.61
32%
On target shareContext
36%
8.69
Shots in the boxContext
8.47
66%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.15
OffsidesContext
2.18
12.25
Shots allowedContext
11.81
4.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.91
BlocksContext
3.42
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
64%
Save rateContext
71%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
397
PassesContext
474
316
Accurate passesContext
397
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.42
FoulsContext
12.08
11.36
Fouls sufferedContext
10.17
1.64
Yellow cardsContext
2.39
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.10
ShotsContext
12.90
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
31%
On target shareContext
43%
9.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
63%
Box shareContext
69%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.43
12.00
Shots allowedContext
10.60
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.20
BlocksContext
3.13
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
69%
Save rateContext
78%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
383
PassesContext
479
297
Accurate passesContext
397
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.96
Team ratingContext
7.03
11.10
FoulsContext
12.40
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Leeds
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km544 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Brighton
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel341 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Leeds |
Brighton |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Premier League 2025-2026, 11 May | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 341 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 544 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Leeds
Confirmed XI
26K. Darlow(G)
23S. Bornauw
15J. Bijol
6J. Rodon
24J. Justin
22A. Tanaka
4E. Ampadu
18A. Stach
7D. James
11B. Aaronson
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Brighton
Confirmed XI
1B. Verbruggen(G)
29M. De Cuyper
5L. Dunk
6J. van Hecke
34J. Veltman
17C. Baleba
30P. Groß
11Y. Minteh
13J. Hinshelwood
24F. Kadıoğlu
18D. Welbeck
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Leeds
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Brighton
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Leeds-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Brighton+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Leeds · Home
1.61points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-5
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 1.17
Brighton · Away
1.11points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-8
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.39
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Leeds | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Burnley | W 3–1 HL 0–2 A | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Bournemouth | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Wolves | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Manchester United | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | L 2–4 A |
| Brentford | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 AW 4–1 H | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Sunderland | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Manchester City | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Aston Villa | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 AL 3–4 H |
| Chelsea | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 3–1 HL 1–3 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–4 HL 0–5 A | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Everton | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Fulham | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Newcastle | L 3–4 AD 0–0 H | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Liverpool | D 0–0 AD 3–3 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| West Ham | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Points | 44 of 105 · 1.26 per game | 50 of 105 · 1.43 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Leeds wins3 draws4 Brighton wins
Goals per game0.43 – 1.43
Over 2.529%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets14% · 71%
- 1 Nov 2025Brighton3–0Leeds
- 11 Mar 2023Leeds2–2Brighton
- 27 Aug 2022Brighton1–0Leeds
- 15 May 2022Leeds1–1Brighton
- 27 Nov 2021Brighton0–0Leeds
- 1 May 2021Brighton2–0Leeds
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Leeds | Brighton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.47 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.81 | 2.61 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 58% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 19% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Leeds | Brighton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.60 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Leeds | Brighton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.52 | 4.92 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 4.81 | |
| Match total | 9.82 | 9.73 | 10.09 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 22/33 | 61% 22/36 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 18/33 | 58% 21/36 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 14/33 | 44% 16/36 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.89 | 2.11 | |
| Match total | 3.56 | 4.50 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 16/36 | 67% 24/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 12/36 | 42% 15/36 | |
| Leeds | Brighton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.22 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 11.33 | 10.00 | 10.09 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.30 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.68league 3.79
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+35%league 38%
Fouls22.3league 21.6
Penalties0.21league 0.20
Home wins42%league 43%
Leeds9 with this referee
Record2-3-4
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D21 Feb 26A · Aston Villa1–14
- L1 Nov 25A · Brighton0–31
- D27 Sep 25H · Bournemouth2–22
- L4 Mar 23A · Chelsea0–10
- L13 Jan 23A · Aston Villa1–22
Brighton10 with this referee
Record4-3-3
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.7
Pens for · against3 · 0
- L24 Jan 26A · Fulham1–21
- W30 Nov 25A · Nottingham Forest2–01
- W1 Nov 25H · Leeds3–00
- W10 May 25A · Wolves2–01
- W25 Feb 25H · Bournemouth2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Leeds36 games · scored 48 · conceded 53
7
4
0-15
6
7
16-30
11
5
31-45
7
11
46-60
9
11
61-75
8
15
76-90
Brighton36 games · scored 52 · conceded 42
9
6
0-15
4
8
16-30
7
9
31-45
7
4
46-60
9
5
61-75
16
10
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
6
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
