Leeds vs Burnley – 1 May 2026

Premier League Gameweek 35 Fri, May 1 · 20:00 Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire

Leeds 15th · 40 pts · 34 played DDWWD

3–1Full time

Burnley 19th · 20 pts · 34 played DLLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Leeds were clear favourites.

Leeds were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Leeds. Leeds had 9 days of rest, Burnley 9 and had to travel 45 km.

Away travel45 kmRest days9 · 9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Leeds70%

Draw18%

Burnley12%

Expected goals 2.39 – 0.91

Leeds59%

Draw23%

Burnley18%

Expected goals 1.90 – 0.94

Leeds69%

Draw18%

Burnley12%

Expected goals 2.37 – 0.92

Leeds62%

Draw21%

Burnley17%

Expected goals 2.13 – 1.02

Leeds69%

Draw19%

Burnley12%

Expected goals 2.31 – 0.89

Over 2.5 64% Both score 55% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)

No weather data yet

RefereeThomas Bramall

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 108

Team strength

Leeds

Burnley

71 L90 StrengthIn forecast 46

73 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

69 AttackIn forecast 27

77 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Burnley

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Leeds

Burnley

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.45 xGVia Att/Def 0.85

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.03

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

68% Scored inContext 62%

21% Clean sheetsContext 12%

12.62 ShotsContext 9.12

3.97 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.37

32% On target shareContext 33%

8.70 Shots in the boxContext 5.74

67% Box shareContext 61%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.12 OffsidesContext 2.04

12.24 Shots allowedContext 16.79

4.21 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.71

3.88 BlocksContext 5.27

2.77 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.73

65% Save rateContext 64%

46% PossessionIn forecast 42%

397 PassesContext 381

317 Accurate passesContext 300

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.69

10.47 FoulsContext 9.97

11.32 Fouls sufferedContext 9.12

1.59 Yellow cardsContext 1.65

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 34 and 34 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.58 xGVia Att/Def 0.90

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.05

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.00

60% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.00 ShotsContext 10.20

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30

30% On target shareContext 32%

9.11 Shots in the boxContext 7.10

66% Box shareContext 69%

10% ConversionContext 9%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.29

13.00 Shots allowedContext 16.40

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

4.40 BlocksContext 6.22

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

72% Save rateContext 53%

46% PossessionIn forecast 42%

385 PassesContext 387

304 Accurate passesContext 310

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.71

11.40 FoulsContext 10.00

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Leeds

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km686 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Burnley

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel45 km237 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Leeds	Burnley
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Apr	9Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	45 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	686 km	237 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	10	8.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Leeds Confirmed XI

3-5-2

26K. Darlow(G)

5P. Struijk 15J. Bijol 6J. Rodon

24J. Justin 22A. Tanaka 4E. Ampadu 18A. Stach 2J. Bogle

19N. Okafor 9D. Calvert-Lewin

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Burnley Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1M. Dúbravka(G)

3Q. Hartman 12B. Humphreys 5M. Estève 18H. Ekdal 2K. Walker

11J. Anthony 20J. Ward-Prowse 29J. Laurent 17L. Tchaouna

19Z. Flemming

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Leeds Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Burnley Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Leeds+0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Burnley-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Leeds · Home 1.53points per game · 17 home games

W-D-L: 7-5-5
Scored: 1.47
Conceded: 1.18

Burnley · Away 0.53points per game · 17 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-12
Scored: 1.12
Conceded: 2.47

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Leeds	Burnley
Bournemouth	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	D 0–0 HD 1–1 A
Wolves	W 3–0 HW 3–1 A	W 3–2 A
Manchester United	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H	D 2–2 HL 2–3 A
Brentford	D 0–0 HD 1–1 A	L 3–4 HL 1–3 A
Crystal Palace	D 0–0 AW 4–1 H	W 3–2 AL 0–1 H
Sunderland	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A	L 0–3 AW 2–0 H
Manchester City	L 0–1 HL 2–3 A	L 0–1 HL 1–5 A
Aston Villa	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H	L 1–2 A
Chelsea	D 2–2 AW 3–1 H	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H
Nottingham Forest	W 3–1 HL 1–3 A	L 1–4 AD 1–1 H
Arsenal	L 0–4 HL 0–5 A	L 0–2 H
Everton	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	L 0–2 AD 0–0 H
Fulham	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A	L 1–3 AL 2–3 H
Newcastle	L 3–4 AD 0–0 H	L 1–3 HL 1–2 A
Liverpool	D 0–0 AD 3–3 H	D 1–1 AL 0–1 H
Brighton	L 0–3 A	L 0–2 HL 0–2 A
West Ham	W 2–1 H	L 0–2 HL 2–3 A
Tottenham	L 1–2 H	D 2–2 HL 0–3 A
Points	40 of 99 · 1.21 per game	17 of 99 · 0.52 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 Leeds wins2 draws2 Burnley wins

Goals per game1.29 – 0.71 Over 2.529% Both scored29% Clean sheets43% · 43%

18 Oct 2025Burnley2–0Leeds
27 Jan 2025Burnley0–0Leeds
14 Sep 2024Leeds0–1Burnley
2 Jan 2022Leeds3–1Burnley
29 Aug 2021Burnley1–1Leeds
15 May 2021Burnley0–4Leeds

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Leeds	Burnley	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	1.00
Conceded per game	1.50	2.00
Match goals	2.79	3.00	3.29
Over 1.5	74%	85%
Over 2.5	56%	50%	64%
Over 3.5	38%	38%
Both teams scored	59%	56%	55%
Clean sheets	21%	12%
Failed to score	32%	38%
Games	34	34

	Leeds	Burnley	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	0.90
Conceded per game	0.90	2.10
Match goals	2.20	3.00	3.29
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	64%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	40%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Leeds	Burnley	League
Corners
Corners won	4.59	3.71
Corners conceded	5.03	5.97
Match total	9.62	9.68	10.07
Over 8.5	66% 21/32	59% 20/34
Over 9.5	53% 17/32	53% 18/34
Over 10.5	41% 13/32	38% 13/34
Cards
Cards	1.62	1.74
Opponent cards	1.82	1.15
Match total	3.44	2.89	3.91
Over 3.5	41% 14/34	38% 13/34
Over 4.5	32% 11/34	18% 6/34

	Leeds	Burnley	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	4.50
Corners conceded	6.50	6.40
Match total	10.60	10.90	10.07
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.70
Opponent cards	2.20	1.20
Match total	4.10	2.90	3.91
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Bramall 108 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.72league 3.77

Red cards0.14league 0.12

Cards 5+41%league 38%

Fouls22.0league 21.5

Penalties0.19league 0.21

Home wins47%league 42%

Leeds4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D15 Mar 26A · Crystal Palace0–03
W20 Dec 25H · Crystal Palace4–11
L4 Oct 25H · Tottenham1–22
D5 Apr 25A · Luton1–12

Burnley6 with this referee

Record0-3-3 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 1

L11 Apr 26H · Brighton0–22
D20 Sep 25H · Nottingham Forest1–11
D2 Apr 24H · Wolves1–10
L30 Sep 23A · Newcastle0–23
D4 Mar 23A · Blackpool0–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.