Leeds
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Leeds69.7%fair odds 1.44
Draw18.2%fair odds 5.50
Burnley12.2%fair odds 8.22
Expected goals2.39 – 0.91total 3.29
Likeliest score2–010.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Burnley
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Leeds ↓ · Burnley → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Leeds goals, columns Burnley goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.5%9.48
- 2–19.6%10.42
- 1–18.5%11.80
- 1–08.4%11.88
- 3–08.4%11.92
- 3–17.6%13.11
- 4–05.0%20.00
- 4–14.5%21.99
- 2–24.4%22.92
- 0–04.1%24.18
Winning margin
26.9%
Leeds by 3+
fair 3.72
20.6%
Leeds by 2
fair 4.86
22.2%
Leeds by 1
fair 4.51
18.2%
Draw
fair 5.50
8.2%
Burnley by 1
fair 12.20
3.0%
Burnley by 2
fair 33.43
1.0%
Burnley by 3+
fair 102.91
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
Leeds goals
9%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
22%4+
Burnley goals
40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 69.7% | 68.8% | +0.8 pp |
| Draw | 18.2% | 18.8% | -0.6 pp |
| Burnley win | 12.2% | 12.4% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.9% | 61.9% | +2.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.7% | 53.4% | +1.3 pp |
| Expected goals Leeds | 2.39 | 2.31 | +0.08 |
| Expected goals Burnley | 0.91 | 0.89 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Leeds win69.7%1.44
- Draw18.2%5.50
- Burnley win12.2%8.22
- Double chance Leeds or draw87.8%1.14
- Double chance Leeds or Burnley81.8%1.22
- Double chance Burnley or draw30.3%3.30
- Draw no bet Leeds85.1%1.17
- Draw no bet Burnley14.9%6.73
Goals
- Over 0.595.9%1.04
- Over 1.584.5%1.18
- Over 2.563.9%1.56
- Over 3.541.8%2.39
- Over 4.523.6%4.23
- Under 1.515.5%6.45
- Under 2.536.1%2.77
- Under 3.558.2%1.72
Both teams to score
- Yes54.7%1.83
- No45.3%2.21
- Yes and over 2.546.2%2.17
- Leeds win and yes33.5%2.98
- Draw and yes14.0%7.12
- Burnley win and yes7.1%14.12
Team goals
- Leeds over 0.590.8%1.10
- Leeds over 1.568.8%1.45
- Leeds over 2.542.6%2.35
- Burnley over 0.559.7%1.67
- Burnley over 1.523.1%4.33
- Burnley over 2.56.4%15.52
- Leeds clean sheet40.3%2.48
- Burnley clean sheet9.2%10.86
- Leeds win to nil36.1%2.77
- Burnley win to nil5.1%19.71
Handicap
- Leeds −1.547.5%2.11
- Leeds −2.526.9%3.72
- Burnley +1.552.5%1.90
- Burnley +2.573.1%1.37
- Burnley −1.54.0%25.23
- Leeds +1.596.0%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored339
Favourite won49.6%
Avg chance given to result39.1%
1X2 Brier0.621
Over 2.5 called right55.2%
BTTS called right54.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 50 | 38.3% | 38.0% |
| 40–50% | 124 | 45.0% | 45.2% |
| 50–60% | 91 | 54.9% | 53.8% |
| 60–70% | 45 | 64.1% | 57.8% |
| 70–80% | 26 | 73.5% | 57.7% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 279 of 339 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6197 | 0.6081 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.2% | 40.0% |
| Favourite won | 49.5% | 50.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 279 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 339 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.