Leeds
Attack0%
Defense risk+3%
Our take
Leeds were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Leeds. Leeds were without J. Rodon. Manchester United were without L. Shaw. Leeds had 8.1 days of rest, Manchester United 4.8 and had to travel 57 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel57 kmRest days8.1 · 4.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Leeds44%
Draw24%
Manchester United32%
Leeds39%
Draw27%
Manchester United34%
Leeds43%
Draw24%
Manchester United33%
Leeds36%
Draw24%
Manchester United39%
Leeds44%
Draw25%
Manchester United31%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)
12°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 15 km/h
- Humidity 63%
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 126
Team strength
Leeds
Manchester United
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
79
73
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
69
AttackIn forecast
72
77
DefenceIn forecast
80
63
Form indexContext
44
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester United
Attack−1%
Defense risk−3%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
LeedsManchester United
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
83%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.00
ShotsContext
20.67
3.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
32%
On target shareContext
26%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.83
61%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.40
14.17
Shots allowedContext
10.83
4.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
5.20
BlocksContext
3.17
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
88%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
361
PassesContext
550
278
Accurate passesContext
482
77%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.17
FoulsContext
10.33
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.67
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.96
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.10
ShotsContext
19.20
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
32%
On target shareContext
31%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
59%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.17
14.50
Shots allowedContext
10.90
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
4.78
BlocksContext
3.40
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
77%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
368
PassesContext
517
283
Accurate passesContext
452
77%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.95
11.50
FoulsContext
10.60
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Leeds
DDWDL
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km544 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 63 · 6 pts vs 4.5 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected
Manchester United
WLDDL
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel57 km2,914 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 44 · 5 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -3.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Leeds |
Manchester United |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 5 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Premier League 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 4.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 13 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 57 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 544 km | 2,914 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Leeds
Confirmed XI
1J. Trafford(G)
5T. Muharemović
30N. Elvedi
24J. Justin
3G. Gudmundsson
22A. Tanaka
4E. Ampadu
2J. Bogle
19N. Okafor
18A. Stach
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
1S. Lammens(G)
2Diogo Dalot
6L. Martínez
5J. Maguire
15L. Yoro
20C. Baleba
17Andrey Santos
8Bruno Fernandes
18Y. Tielemans
16A. Diallo
19B. Mbeumo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Leeds
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −1.2% · Defence line −8.8% of weighted minutes
- DEF J. Rodon Starter 6.64 Def −8.4%
- MID D. James Rotation 6.63 Att −1.2% Def −0.3%
Manchester United
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals
Attack line −10.5% · Defence line −22.2% of weighted minutes
- DEF L. Shaw Starter 6.75 Def −13.7%
- MID K. Mainoo Rotation 6.98 Att −3.9% Def −2.4%
- ATT B. Šeško Rotation 6.82 Att −5.4%
- DEF P. Dorgu Rotation 6.88 Def −2.9%
- DEF N. Mazraoui Rotation 6.77 Def −2.3%
- MID M. Ugarte Rotation 6.69 Att −1.3% Def −0.8%
Total impact vs full squads
- Leeds+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Manchester United-0.8 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Leeds · Home
1.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Manchester United · Away
0.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Leeds wins3 draws4 Manchester United wins
Goals per game1.25 – 2.63
Over 2.563%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 13 Apr 2026Manchester United1–2Leeds
- 4 Jan 2026Leeds1–1Manchester United
- 12 Feb 2023Leeds0–2Manchester United
- 8 Feb 2023Manchester United2–2Leeds
- 20 Feb 2022Leeds2–4Manchester United
- 14 Aug 2021Manchester United5–1Leeds
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Leeds | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.83 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 3.00 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Leeds | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Leeds | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 6.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 3.83 | |
| Match total | 8.66 | 10.50 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 4.67 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Leeds | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 10.00 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 126 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.24league 3.97
Red cards0.11league 0.18
Cards 5+42%league 45%
Fouls22.2league 23.0
Penalties0.25league 0.17
Home wins44%league 38%
Leeds7 with this referee
Record2-4-1
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W3 Dec 25H · Chelsea3–11
- W2 Dec 23H · Middlesbrough3–22
- L1 Apr 23A · Arsenal1–42
- D30 Aug 22H · Everton1–13
- D25 Apr 22A · Crystal Palace0–02
Manchester United7 with this referee
Record4-1-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L22 Aug 26A · Hull City0–21
- W3 May 26H · Liverpool3–22
- W23 Feb 26A · Everton1–03
- D1 Nov 25A · Nottingham Forest2–21
- W26 Feb 25H · Ipswich3–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Leeds6 games · scored 8 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Manchester United6 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
2
0-15
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
3
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 19 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
