Lille
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League
Matchday 8 Thu, Jan 29 · 20:00
Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
Our take
It was too close to call.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for SC Freiburg. Lille had 4 days of rest, SC Freiburg 4.1 and had to travel 447 km.
Away travel447 kmRest days4 · 4.1Matches / 14d3 · 3
Lille35%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg40%
Lille38%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg35%
Lille37%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg38%
Lille28%
Draw24%
SC Freiburg48%
Lille35%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg40%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)
No weather data yet
RefereeDamian Sylwestrzak
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 35
Team strength
Lille
SC Freiburg
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
42
AttackIn forecast
63
60
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LilleSC Freiburg
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.43
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.86
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
71%
Scored inContext
86%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
57%
14.71
ShotsContext
16.43
5.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
35%
On target shareContext
37%
8.71
Shots in the boxContext
11.14
62%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.75
10.00
Shots allowedContext
11.14
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.71
2.40
BlocksContext
4.60
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
64%
Save rateContext
89%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
545
PassesContext
407
470
Accurate passesContext
333
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.04
9.57
FoulsContext
11.43
12.14
Fouls sufferedContext
12.71
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
2.05
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.00
ShotsContext
17.00
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
37%
On target shareContext
32%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.44
67%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.71
10.70
Shots allowedContext
10.90
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.89
BlocksContext
5.20
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
63%
Save rateContext
78%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
479
PassesContext
457
413
Accurate passesContext
384
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.95
8.60
FoulsContext
10.10
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.50
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lille
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,011 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
SC Freiburg
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel447 km459 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lille |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 4.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 447 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,011 km | 459 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
24C. Verdonk
23A. Mandi
3N. Ngoy
22Tiago Santos
27Félix Correia
32A. Bouaddi
21B. André
17N. Mukau
10H. Haraldsson
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
43B. Ogbus
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
14Y. Suzuki
19J. Beste
20C. Adamu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lille
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lille-1.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- SC Freiburg+1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Lille · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
SC Freiburg · Away
1.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Lille | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 0.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 1.86 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 29% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 57% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Lille | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.00 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lille | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.43 | 5.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.14 | 3.86 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 9.43 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.57 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 4.57 | 3.29 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Lille | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 10.50 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.00 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Damian Sylwestrzak 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.91league 4.13
Red cards0.29league 0.21
Cards 5+60%league 42%
Fouls27.2league 24.2
Penalties0.43league 0.36
Home wins57%league 51%
LilleNo previous matches with this referee.
SC FreiburgNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lille7 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
SC Freiburg7 games · scored 10 · conceded 3
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
10
3
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
7
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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