Liverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Liverpool were clear favourites.
Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 69). Liverpool usually keep the ball (60% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Liverpool had 5.9 days of rest, Everton 6.9 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days5.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Liverpool73%
Draw17%
Everton11%
Liverpool69%
Draw19%
Everton12%
Liverpool71%
Draw18%
Everton11%
Liverpool65%
Draw20%
Everton15%
Liverpool70%
Draw19%
Everton11%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool)
No weather data yet
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 102
Team strength
Liverpool
Everton
92
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
84
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
85
AttackIn forecast
61
84
DefenceIn forecast
66
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEverton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LiverpoolEverton
2.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.73
Goals minus xGContext
-0.35
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.00
ShotsContext
12.00
5.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
35%
On target shareContext
21%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
59%
Box shareContext
66%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.67
8.50
Shots allowedContext
13.25
2.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.33
BlocksContext
6.25
1.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
43%
Save rateContext
75%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
517
PassesContext
372
437
Accurate passesContext
288
85%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.02
Team ratingContext
7.00
9.50
FoulsContext
10.50
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.75
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
100%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
16.10
ShotsContext
10.70
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
31%
On target shareContext
34%
11.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
70%
Box shareContext
71%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
1.38
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.60
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.33
BlocksContext
4.00
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
64%
Save rateContext
80%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
523
PassesContext
374
449
Accurate passesContext
303
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.04
Team ratingContext
7.05
10.00
FoulsContext
9.40
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Liverpool
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km131 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Everton
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Liverpool |
Everton |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 131 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 9.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez
4V. van Dijk
5I. Konaté
12C. Bradley
10A. Mac Allister
38R. Gravenberch
18C. Gakpo
8D. Szoboszlai
11Mohamed Salah
22H. Ekitiké
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
5M. Keane
6J. Tarkowski
15J. O'Brien
37J. Garner
27I. Gueye
18J. Grealish
22K. Dewsbury-Hall
10I. Ndiaye
9Beto
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Liverpool
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Everton
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Liverpool+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Everton-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Liverpool · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Everton · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 Liverpool wins3 draws2 Everton wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.90
Over 2.530%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets50% · 30%
- 2 Apr 2025Liverpool1–0Everton
- 12 Feb 2025Everton2–2Liverpool
- 24 Apr 2024Everton2–0Liverpool
- 21 Oct 2023Liverpool2–0Everton
- 13 Feb 2023Liverpool2–0Everton
- 3 Sep 2022Everton0–0Liverpool
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Liverpool | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.00 | 3.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Liverpool | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.00 | 3.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Liverpool | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.75 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 7.50 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 4.00 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Liverpool | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 8.70 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 102 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.21league 3.50
Red cards0.11league 0.13
Cards 5+40%league 40%
Fouls22.4league 22.5
Penalties0.29league 0.30
Home wins44%league 50%
Liverpool5 with this referee
Record1-3-1
Cards · opp.3.2 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D25 May 25H · Crystal Palace1–13
- W1 Feb 25A · Bournemouth2–03
- D28 May 23A · Southampton4–42
- D25 Feb 23A · Crystal Palace0–05
- L14 Jan 23A · Brighton0–33
Everton11 with this referee
Record4-6-1
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 2
- W10 May 25A · Fulham3–10
- D5 Apr 25H · Arsenal1–13
- W19 Jan 25H · Tottenham3–22
- D21 Sep 24A · Leicester1–12
- W27 Apr 24H · Brentford1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Liverpool4 games · scored 9 · conceded 4
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Everton4 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 23 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
4
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
8
5
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
