Liverpool vs Newcastle – 31 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 24 Sat, Jan 31 · 20:00 Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool 6th · 36 pts · 23 played DDDDL

4–1Full time

Newcastle 10th · 33 pts · 23 played WWWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were slight favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 80). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Liverpool. Liverpool had 7.1 days of rest, Newcastle 6.3 and had to travel 195 km.

Away travel195 kmRest days7.1 · 6.3Matches / 14d1 · 2

Liverpool60%

Draw20%

Newcastle20%

Expected goals 2.31 – 1.30

Liverpool52%

Draw25%

Newcastle23%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.05

Liverpool60%

Draw20%

Newcastle20%

Expected goals 2.29 – 1.27

Liverpool51%

Draw22%

Newcastle27%

Expected goals 2.06 – 1.46

Liverpool57%

Draw22%

Newcastle21%

Expected goals 2.07 – 1.18

Over 2.5 70% Both score 66% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool)

No weather data yet

RefereeSimon Hooper

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 139

Team strength

Liverpool

Newcastle

87 L90 StrengthIn forecast 80

84 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

85 AttackIn forecast 61

84 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Liverpool

Newcastle

1.52 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.39

1.39 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.26

1.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

83% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.43 ShotsContext 13.00

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.65

28% On target shareContext 36%

9.87 Shots in the boxContext 8.52

64% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.63 OffsidesContext 2.07

10.65 Shots allowedContext 10.83

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.96

3.23 BlocksContext 3.50

2.65 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86

65% Save rateContext 71%

62% PossessionIn forecast 54%

560 PassesContext 466

484 Accurate passesContext 391

86% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.96

9.26 FoulsContext 9.64

10.48 Fouls sufferedContext 11.57

1.65 Yellow cardsContext 1.39

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.99

0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

+0.35 Goals minus xGContext -0.29

80% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

17.50 ShotsContext 14.80

5.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

29% On target shareContext 36%

11.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.50

65% Box shareContext 79%

13% ConversionContext 12%

3.13 OffsidesContext 2.10

9.30 Shots allowedContext 13.30

3.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

2.80 BlocksContext 3.22

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

79% Save rateContext 72%

62% PossessionIn forecast 57%

604 PassesContext 513

532 Accurate passesContext 432

88% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.08 Team ratingContext 7.07

7.60 FoulsContext 7.00

8.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

0.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km617 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Newcastle

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel195 km535 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Liverpool	Newcastle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Jan	6.3Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	195 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	617 km	535 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Becker(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5I. Konaté 8D. Szoboszlai

10A. Mac Allister 38R. Gravenberch

18C. Gakpo 7F. Wirtz 11Mohamed Salah

22H. Ekitiké

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1N. Pope(G)

3L. Hall 33D. Burn 12M. Thiaw 2K. Trippier

28J. Willock 8S. Tonali 41J. Ramsey

11H. Barnes 10A. Gordon 20A. Elanga

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Liverpool Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Newcastle Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Liverpool-0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Newcastle+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home 1.91points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 6-3-2
Scored: 1.45
Conceded: 1.00

Newcastle · Away 0.91points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 2-4-5
Scored: 0.91
Conceded: 1.09

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Liverpool	Newcastle
Bournemouth	L 2–3 AW 4–2 H	D 0–0 A
Burnley	D 1–1 HW 1–0 A	W 3–1 AW 2–1 H
Arsenal	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	L 1–2 H
Fulham	D 2–2 A	W 2–1 H
Leeds	D 0–0 HD 3–3 A	W 4–3 HD 0–0 A
Wolves	W 2–1 H	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Tottenham	W 2–1 A	D 2–2 H
Brighton	W 2–0 H	L 1–2 A
Sunderland	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 A
West Ham	W 2–0 A	L 1–3 A
Nottingham Forest	L 0–3 H	W 2–0 H
Manchester City	L 0–3 A	W 2–1 H
Aston Villa	W 2–0 H	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A
Brentford	L 2–3 A	L 1–3 A
Manchester United	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 A
Chelsea	L 1–2 A	D 2–2 H
Crystal Palace	L 1–2 A	W 2–0 H
Everton	W 2–1 H	W 4–1 A
Points	33 of 66 · 1.50 per game	33 of 66 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

8 Liverpool wins2 draws0 Newcastle wins

Goals per game2.30 – 1.10 Over 2.560% Both scored70% Clean sheets30% · 0%

25 Aug 2025Newcastle2–3Liverpool
26 Feb 2025Liverpool2–0Newcastle
4 Dec 2024Newcastle3–3Liverpool
1 Jan 2024Liverpool4–2Newcastle
27 Aug 2023Newcastle1–2Liverpool
18 Feb 2023Newcastle0–2Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Liverpool	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.52	1.39
Conceded per game	1.39	1.26
Match goals	2.91	2.65	3.61
Over 1.5	83%	70%
Over 2.5	61%	57%	70%
Over 3.5	26%	35%
Both teams scored	61%	57%	66%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	17%	30%
Games	23	23

	Liverpool	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.50
Conceded per game	1.20	1.30
Match goals	2.70	2.80	3.61
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	70%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	66%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Liverpool	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	5.82	6.43
Corners conceded	4.32	5.22
Match total	10.14	11.65	9.96
Over 8.5	77% 17/22	78% 18/23
Over 9.5	55% 12/22	65% 15/23
Over 10.5	41% 9/22	57% 13/23
Cards
Cards	1.65	1.48
Opponent cards	2.04	2.39
Match total	3.69	3.87	3.85
Over 3.5	48% 11/23	48% 11/23
Over 4.5	30% 7/23	30% 7/23

	Liverpool	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	8.56	6.10
Corners conceded	3.22	3.90
Match total	11.78	10.00	9.96
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	89% 8/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	0.90	1.60
Opponent cards	1.70	2.80
Match total	2.60	4.40	3.85
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simon Hooper 139 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.91league 3.71

Red cards0.07league 0.11

Cards 5+37%league 38%

Fouls21.8league 21.3

Penalties0.16league 0.20

Home wins49%league 44%

Liverpool13 with this referee

Record8-1-4 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds2

W27 Dec 25H · Wolves2–10
L25 Oct 25A · Brentford2–32
W25 Aug 25A · Newcastle3–23
L4 May 25A · Chelsea1–32
W16 Feb 25H · Wolves2–12

Newcastle14 with this referee

Record4-2-8 Cards · opp.2.4 · 3.2 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds1

L25 Aug 25H · Liverpool2–33
L18 May 25A · Arsenal0–13
W30 Dec 24A · Manchester United2–01
L7 Dec 24A · Brentford2–40
L27 Oct 24A · Chelsea1–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.