Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest – 22 Nov 2025

Premier League Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 22 · 15:00 Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool 8th · 18 pts · 11 played LLLWL

0–3Full time

Nottingham Forest 19th · 9 pts · 11 played LLLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were clear favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 62). Liverpool had 12.9 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 13 and had to travel 132 km.

Away travel132 kmRest days12.9 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1

Liverpool71%

Draw17%

Nottingham Forest11%

Expected goals 2.46 – 0.89

Liverpool69%

Draw19%

Nottingham Forest12%

Expected goals 2.20 – 0.81

Liverpool71%

Draw18%

Nottingham Forest11%

Expected goals 2.42 – 0.88

Liverpool64%

Draw20%

Nottingham Forest16%

Expected goals 2.19 – 1.00

Liverpool69%

Draw19%

Nottingham Forest12%

Expected goals 2.23 – 0.82

Over 2.5 65% Both score 54% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool)

No weather data yet

RefereeAndy Madley

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 120

Team strength

Liverpool

Nottingham Forest

90 L90 StrengthIn forecast 62

84 Current StrengthIn forecast 70

85 AttackIn forecast 68

84 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Liverpool

Nottingham Forest

1.64 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.91

1.55 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.82

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.53

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.36

91% Scored inContext 45%

27% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.82 ShotsContext 11.91

4.18 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.91

28% On target shareContext 33%

9.64 Shots in the boxContext 7.82

65% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 8%

2.67 OffsidesContext 1.86

11.27 Shots allowedContext 13.18

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.27

3.10 BlocksContext 3.89

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.36

61% Save rateContext 64%

61% PossessionIn forecast 53%

517 PassesContext 463

441 Accurate passesContext 390

85% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.72

10.09 FoulsContext 11.55

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

2.09 Yellow cardsContext 1.82

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 11 and 11 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.78

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext -0.68

80% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.10 ShotsContext 13.30

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

33% On target shareContext 34%

10.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.90

69% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 8%

2.78 OffsidesContext 1.86

11.10 Shots allowedContext 11.50

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

2.30 BlocksContext 3.67

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

67% Save rateContext 59%

58% PossessionIn forecast 51%

514 PassesContext 440

443 Accurate passesContext 368

86% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.81

10.70 FoulsContext 12.90

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 14.33

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool

Rest12.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km99 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nottingham Forest

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel132 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Liverpool	Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	12.9Premier League 2025-2026, 9 Nov	13Premier League 2025-2026, 9 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	132 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	99 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8	5.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1A. Becker(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5I. Konaté 8D. Szoboszlai

10A. Mac Allister 38R. Gravenberch 17C. Jones

18C. Gakpo 9A. Isak 11Mohamed Salah

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

26M. Sels(G)

3N. Williams 5Murillo 31N. Milenković 37N. Savona

8E. Anderson 6I. Sangaré

16N. Domínguez 10M. Gibbs-White 14D. Ndoye

19Igor Jesus

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Liverpool Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nottingham Forest Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Liverpool+0.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Nottingham Forest-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home 2.40points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 4-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Nottingham Forest · Away 0.40points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-3
Scored: 0.40
Conceded: 1.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 8 this season

Opponent	Liverpool	Nottingham Forest
Brentford	L 2–3 A	W 3–1 H
Manchester United	L 1–2 H	D 2–2 H
Chelsea	L 1–2 A	L 0–3 H
Crystal Palace	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 A
Burnley	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 A
Arsenal	W 1–0 H	L 0–3 A
Newcastle	W 3–2 A	L 0–2 A
Bournemouth	W 4–2 H	L 0–2 A
Points	12 of 24 · 1.50 per game	6 of 24 · 0.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Liverpool wins1 draws2 Nottingham Forest wins

Goals per game1.33 – 0.83 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%

14 Jan 2025Nottingham Forest1–1Liverpool
14 Sep 2024Liverpool0–1Nottingham Forest
2 Mar 2024Nottingham Forest0–1Liverpool
29 Oct 2023Liverpool3–0Nottingham Forest
22 Apr 2023Liverpool3–2Nottingham Forest
22 Oct 2022Nottingham Forest1–0Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Liverpool	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	1.64	0.91
Conceded per game	1.55	1.82
Match goals	3.18	2.73	3.35
Over 1.5	82%	91%
Over 2.5	73%	55%	65%
Over 3.5	27%	27%
Both teams scored	64%	45%	54%
Clean sheets	27%	0%
Failed to score	9%	55%
Games	11	11

	Liverpool	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.10
Conceded per game	1.50	1.60
Match goals	2.90	2.70	3.35
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	65%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	10%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Liverpool	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	5.18	5.09
Corners conceded	5.09	4.91
Match total	10.27	10.00	9.92
Over 8.5	73% 8/11	82% 9/11
Over 9.5	45% 5/11	64% 7/11
Over 10.5	45% 5/11	36% 4/11
Cards
Cards	2.09	1.82
Opponent cards	2.09	1.64
Match total	4.18	3.46	3.73
Over 3.5	73% 8/11	45% 5/11
Over 4.5	45% 5/11	27% 3/11

	Liverpool	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	5.22
Corners conceded	3.90	5.33
Match total	9.40	10.55	9.92
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.20
Opponent cards	2.50	1.90
Match total	4.40	4.10	3.73
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andy Madley 120 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.33league 3.63

Red cards0.11league 0.11

Cards 5+29%league 40%

Fouls23.1league 22.0

Penalties0.14league 0.18

Home wins48%league 52%

Liverpool14 with this referee

Record8-4-2 Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.9 Pens for · against0 · 2

L19 May 25A · Brighton2–30
W13 Apr 25H · West Ham2–10
W18 Jan 25A · Brentford2–03
D4 Dec 24A · Newcastle3–35
L24 Apr 24A · Everton0–23

Nottingham Forest4 with this referee

Record0-3-1 Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

D5 May 25A · Crystal Palace1–17
D26 Feb 25H · Arsenal0–01
L11 Feb 23A · Fulham0–21
D21 Jan 23A · Bournemouth1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.