Liverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Liverpool were clear favourites.
Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 45). Liverpool usually keep the ball (60% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Liverpool had 3.3 days of rest, Sunderland 4.2 and had to travel 196 km.
Away travel196 kmRest days3.3 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Liverpool76%
Draw15%
Sunderland9%
Liverpool73%
Draw17%
Sunderland10%
Liverpool76%
Draw16%
Sunderland9%
Liverpool69%
Draw19%
Sunderland12%
Liverpool73%
Draw17%
Sunderland10%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool)
No weather data yet
RefereeStuart Attwell
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 126
Team strength
Liverpool
Sunderland
86
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
85
AttackIn forecast
62
84
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LiverpoolSunderland
1.54
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.31
1.54
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
85%
Scored inContext
69%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
14.85
ShotsContext
9.77
4.23
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.17
29%
On target shareContext
30%
9.77
Shots in the boxContext
7.82
65%
Box shareContext
73%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.82
11.23
Shots allowedContext
14.46
4.55
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.69
3.42
BlocksContext
3.92
2.73
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.92
60%
Save rateContext
80%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
525
PassesContext
374
450
Accurate passesContext
298
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.46
FoulsContext
10.15
10.85
Fouls sufferedContext
10.77
1.92
Yellow cardsContext
2.08
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.96
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.00
ShotsContext
9.60
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
36%
On target shareContext
30%
11.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.75
68%
Box shareContext
72%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
3.29
OffsidesContext
1.89
10.70
Shots allowedContext
16.20
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.80
BlocksContext
4.30
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
61%
Save rateContext
78%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
516
PassesContext
351
447
Accurate passesContext
275
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.60
FoulsContext
10.80
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Liverpool
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km573 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Sunderland
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel196 km774 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Liverpool |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.3Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 196 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 573 km | 774 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
1A. Becker(G)
26A. Robertson
4V. van Dijk
5I. Konaté
2J. Gomez
10A. Mac Allister
38R. Gravenberch
18C. Gakpo
7F. Wirtz
8D. Szoboszlai
9A. Isak
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
15O. Alderete
5D. Ballard
20N. Mukiele
7C. Talbi
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
32T. Hume
9B. Brobbey
28E. Le Fée
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Liverpool
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sunderland
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Liverpool+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Sunderland+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Liverpool · Home
2.00points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Sunderland · Away
1.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 11 this season
| Opponent | Liverpool | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham | W 2–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Nottingham Forest | L 0–3 H | W 1–0 A |
| Aston Villa | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Brentford | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Manchester United | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Chelsea | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Crystal Palace | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Everton | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Burnley | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Arsenal | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Bournemouth | W 4–2 H | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 18 of 33 · 1.64 per game | 19 of 33 · 1.73 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Liverpool | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.54 | 1.31 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.54 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 2.31 | 3.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 38% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 46% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 31% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Liverpool | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.20 | 3.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 30% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Liverpool | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.15 | 3.54 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.31 | 4.46 | |
| Match total | 10.46 | 8.00 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 77% 10/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 6/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 6/13 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 2.15 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.77 | |
| Match total | 3.92 | 3.92 | 3.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 8/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 5/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Liverpool | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 7.80 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.40 | 3.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stuart Attwell 126 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.95league 3.67
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+44%league 40%
Fouls21.0league 22.0
Penalties0.19league 0.20
Home wins51%league 49%
Liverpool15 with this referee
Record12-2-1
Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.5
Pens for · against3 · 1
- W1 Nov 25H · Aston Villa2–02
- W20 Apr 25A · Leicester1–02
- W25 Aug 24H · Brentford2–02
- W4 Apr 24H · Sheffield Utd3–10
- W3 Dec 23H · Fulham4–30
Sunderland3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.4.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L4 Oct 25A · Manchester United0–24
- L17 Feb 25A · Leeds1–26
- L9 Mar 24A · Southampton2–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Liverpool13 games · scored 20 · conceded 20
1
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
9
6
76-90
Sunderland13 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
5
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
5
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
