Ludogorets vs Ferencvarosi TC – 19 Feb 2026

UEFA Europa League Knockout round play-offs Thu, Feb 19 · 20:00 Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad

Ludogorets

2–1Full time

Ferencvarosi TC

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Ferencvarosi TC were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Ludogorets. Ludogorets had 21 days of rest, Ferencvarosi TC 21 and had to travel 730 km.

Away travel730 kmRest days21 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0

Ludogorets37%

Draw26%

Ferencvarosi TC36%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.40

Ludogorets32%

Draw27%

Ferencvarosi TC41%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.43

Ludogorets35%

Draw27%

Ferencvarosi TC38%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.41

Ludogorets30%

Draw26%

Ferencvarosi TC44%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.57

Ludogorets37%

Draw27%

Ferencvarosi TC37%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.39

Over 2.5 53% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Razgrad)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 100

Team strength

Ludogorets

Ferencvarosi TC

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 57

27 AttackIn forecast 61

28 DefenceIn forecast 56

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ludogorets

Attack—

Defense risk—

Ferencvarosi TC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Ludogorets

Ferencvarosi TC

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

80% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

15.60 ShotsContext 11.90

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

33% On target shareContext 34%

8.13 Shots in the boxContext 8.90

57% Box shareContext 73%

11% ConversionContext 13%

1.80 OffsidesContext 1.63

13.80 Shots allowedContext 12.60

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.38 BlocksContext 3.67

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

69% Save rateContext 65%

48% PossessionIn forecast 47%

419 PassesContext 388

349 Accurate passesContext 309

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.00 FoulsContext 16.30

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ludogorets

Rest21 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Ferencvarosi TC

Rest21 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel730 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Ludogorets	Ferencvarosi TC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	21UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan	21UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	730 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ludogorets Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

39H. Bonmann(G)

3A. Nedyalkov 4Dinis Almeida 24O. Verdon 17Son

23Deroy Duarte 30Pedro Naressi

27Vinicius Nogueira 14P. Stanić 11Caio Vidal

9K. Duah

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Ferencvarosi TC Confirmed XI

3-5-2

99D. Gróf(G)

4M. Gómez 28T. Raemaekers 27I. Cissé

20Cadu 15M. Abu Fani 23B. Ötvös 36G. Kanichowsky 25Č. Makreckis

11B. Yusuf 19F. Kovačević

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Ludogorets Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Ferencvarosi TC Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Ludogorets+2.3 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Ferencvarosi TC-1.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Ludogorets · Home No home games yet this season.

Ferencvarosi TC · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Ludogorets wins1 draws2 Ferencvarosi TC wins

Goals per game0.33 – 2.00 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 67%

6 Nov 2025Ferencvarosi TC3–1Ludogorets
12 Aug 2025Ferencvarosi TC3–0Ludogorets
6 Aug 2025Ludogorets0–0Ferencvarosi TC

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Ludogorets	Ferencvarosi TC	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.81
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	53%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	58%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Ludogorets	Ferencvarosi TC	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.50
Conceded per game	1.88	1.38
Match goals	3.38	2.88	2.81
Over 1.5	75%	88%
Over 2.5	63%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	50%	38%
Both teams scored	63%	75%	58%
Clean sheets	13%	13%
Failed to score	25%	13%
Games	8	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Ludogorets	Ferencvarosi TC	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.75
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.75
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Ludogorets	Ferencvarosi TC	League
Corners
Corners won	3.10	3.80
Corners conceded	4.70	4.30
Match total	7.80	8.10	8.75
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.50
Opponent cards	2.60	1.90
Match total	4.10	4.40	2.75
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 100 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.63league 2.75

Red cards0.20league 0.00

Cards 5+33%league 0%

Fouls22.1league 20.3

Penalties0.33league 0.00

Home wins53%league 0%

Ludogorets

No previous matches with this referee.

Ferencvarosi TC1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.7.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L10 Aug 21A · Slavia Praha0–17

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.