Ludogorets
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Ludogorets were slight favourites.
Nice were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 26). Absences weigh more on Nice. Ludogorets had 7 days of rest, Nice 4.3 and had to travel 1,546 km.
Away travel1,546 kmRest days7 · 4.3Matches / 14d1 · 3
Ludogorets42%
Draw26%
Nice32%
Ludogorets39%
Draw27%
Nice34%
Ludogorets40%
Draw26%
Nice33%
Ludogorets35%
Draw26%
Nice39%
Ludogorets42%
Draw26%
Nice32%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Razgrad)
No weather data yet
RefereeOndrej Berka
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 15
Team strength
Ludogorets
Nice
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
27
AttackIn forecast
26
28
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LudogoretsNice
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
71%
Scored inContext
71%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.57
ShotsContext
10.86
4.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
31%
On target shareContext
28%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.57
58%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.86
Shots allowedContext
14.43
5.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.86
2.80
BlocksContext
4.57
3.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
66%
Save rateContext
61%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
414
PassesContext
358
344
Accurate passesContext
289
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.70
11.00
FoulsContext
10.00
12.57
Fouls sufferedContext
14.29
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
70%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.80
ShotsContext
12.10
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
32%
On target shareContext
33%
8.13
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
61%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
1.70
OffsidesContext
1.88
13.40
Shots allowedContext
13.40
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
3.00
BlocksContext
2.60
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
63%
Save rateContext
61%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
412
PassesContext
428
340
Accurate passesContext
357
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.68
12.20
FoulsContext
11.40
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ludogorets
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km5,143 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Nice
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,546 km2,518 km in 14d
Schedule load40%High
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ludogorets |
Nice |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | High · 40 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan | 4.3Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,546 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 5,143 km | 2,518 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ludogorets
Confirmed XI
39H. Bonmann(G)
3A. Nedyalkov
4Dinis Almeida
24O. Verdon
17Son
23Deroy Duarte
30Pedro Naressi
77Erick Marcus
14P. Stanić
11Caio Vidal
29E. Bille
Nice
Confirmed XI
80Y. Diouf(G)
36Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga
28A. Bah
33A. Mendy
20T. Louchet
39D. Coulibaly
41E. Pereira da Silva
21I. Jansson
22T. Ndombélé
47Tiago Gouveia
90Kevin Carlos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ludogorets
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nice
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ludogorets+1.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Nice-1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Ludogorets · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.33
Nice · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Ludogorets | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | W 3–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Ludogorets | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.14 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.71 | 3.00 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 86% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 71% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Ludogorets | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.14 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.71 | 3.40 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 40% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ludogorets | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.86 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 5.29 | |
| Match total | 7.29 | 9.29 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.71 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 4.42 | 4.57 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 6/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Ludogorets | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 7.40 | 9.90 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.80 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ondrej Berka 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.67league 4.13
Red cards0.00league 0.21
Cards 5+67%league 42%
Fouls26.5league 24.2
Penalties0.13league 0.36
Home wins33%league 51%
Ludogorets1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W9 Nov 23H · Fenerbahce2–04
NiceNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ludogorets7 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Nice7 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
76-90
Ludogorets10 games · scored 16 · conceded 21
3
0-15
4
16-30
1
7
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 11 · conceded 23
2
5
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
7
31-45
3
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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