UEFA Europa League Matchday 8 Thu, Jan 29 · 20:00 TSC Arena, Bačka Topola
Maccabi Tel Aviv 36th · 1 pts · 7 played
0–3Full time
Bologna 15th · 12 pts · 7 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Bologna were slight favourites.

Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Maccabi Tel Aviv had 7.1 days of rest, Bologna 4.3 and had to travel 666 km.

Away travel666 kmRest days7.1 · 4.3Matches / 14d1 · 3
Maccabi Tel Aviv22%
Draw24%
Bologna53%
Expected goals 1.09 – 1.79
Maccabi Tel Aviv22%
Draw25%
Bologna53%
Expected goals 1.03 – 1.73
Maccabi Tel Aviv22%
Draw24%
Bologna54%
Expected goals 1.07 – 1.79
Maccabi Tel Aviv17%
Draw22%
Bologna61%
Expected goals 0.98 – 2.01
Maccabi Tel Aviv23%
Draw25%
Bologna52%
Expected goals 1.10 – 1.75
Over 2.5 55% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bačka Topola)

No weather data yet

RefereeGoga Kikacheishvili
  • Cards per match 4.8
  • Penalties per match 0.43
  • Matches 14

Team strength

Maccabi Tel AvivBologna
17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52
19 Current StrengthIn forecast 47
19 AttackIn forecast 35
20 DefenceIn forecast 48
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Attack—
Defense risk—

Bologna

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Maccabi Tel AvivBologna
0.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.57
2.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.81
2.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19
-0.55 Goals minus xGContext -0.24
29% Scored inContext 71%
14% Clean sheetsContext 14%
7.71 ShotsContext 20.00
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.71
33% On target shareContext 34%
5.00 Shots in the boxContext 14.00
68% Box shareContext 68%
4% ConversionContext 8%
1.60 OffsidesContext 2.71
14.29 Shots allowedContext 8.57
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
3.17 BlocksContext 2.20
3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60
57% Save rateContext 72%
39% PossessionIn forecast 56%
338 PassesContext 427
280 Accurate passesContext 357
83% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.56 Team ratingContext 7.00
12.71 FoulsContext 12.14
12.57 Fouls sufferedContext 13.29
2.14 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.13
2.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41
-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.17
40% Scored inContext 80%
10% Clean sheetsContext 0%
8.78 ShotsContext 14.30
3.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10
39% On target shareContext 29%
5.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.44
68% Box shareContext 63%
6% ConversionContext 9%
1.71 OffsidesContext 1.86
13.00 Shots allowedContext 10.40
5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
3.29 BlocksContext 3.14
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11
57% Save rateContext 64%
43% PossessionIn forecast 54%
338 PassesContext 429
280 Accurate passesContext 354
83% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.56 Team ratingContext 6.76
12.78 FoulsContext 12.80
12.56 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.30
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Maccabi Tel Aviv
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Bologna
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel666 km381 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Maccabi Tel Aviv Bologna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan4.3Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium—666 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km381 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 11 / 3 / 7
Next matchdays after this one—5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Maccabi Tel Aviv Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
22O. Melika(G)
4Heitor 13R. Shlomo 41I. Ben Hamo
3R. Revivo 23B. Lederman 28I. Sissokho 21N. Ben Harush
10K. Andrade 42D. Peretz
19E. Madmon
+4 more reported missing outside this XI
Bologna Confirmed XI
4-3-3
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
33Juan Miranda 16N. Casale 41M. Vitík 20N. Zortea
19L. Ferguson 8R. Freuler 6N. Moro
11J. Rowe 9S. Castro 7R. Orsolini
+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Maccabi Tel Aviv Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bologna Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Maccabi Tel Aviv+0.6 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Bologna-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Maccabi Tel Aviv · Home 0.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
0.33
Conceded
4.00
Bologna · Away 2.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
2-0-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentMaccabi Tel AvivBologna
SC Freiburg L 0–1 A D 1–1 H
Aston Villa L 0–2 A L 0–1 A
Points0 of 6 · 0.00 per game1 of 6 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Maccabi Tel AvivBolognaForecast
Scored per game 0.291.57
Conceded per game 2.711.00
Match goals 3.002.57 2.89
Over 1.5 71%71%
Over 2.5 57%57% 55%
Over 3.5 43%29%
Both teams scored 29%71% 56%
Clean sheets 14%14%
Failed to score 71%29%
Games77
Maccabi Tel AvivBolognaForecast
Scored per game 0.291.30
Conceded per game 2.711.80
Match goals 3.003.10 2.89
Over 1.5 71%90%
Over 2.5 57%60% 55%
Over 3.5 43%40%
Both teams scored 29%80% 56%
Clean sheets 14%0%
Failed to score 71%20%
Games710

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Maccabi Tel AvivBolognaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.008.00
Corners conceded5.334.50
Match total8.3312.509.07
Over 8.550% 3/683% 5/6
Over 9.533% 2/683% 5/6
Over 10.517% 1/667% 4/6
Cards
Cards2.292.14
Opponent cards1.432.57
Match total3.724.714.35
Over 3.557% 4/786% 6/7
Over 4.514% 1/729% 2/7
Maccabi Tel AvivBolognaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.884.78
Corners conceded5.634.00
Match total9.518.789.07
Over 8.563% 5/833% 3/9
Over 9.550% 4/822% 2/9
Over 10.538% 3/822% 2/9
Cards
Cards2.002.30
Opponent cards1.802.00
Match total3.804.304.35
Over 3.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Over 4.520% 2/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Goga Kikacheishvili 14 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.64league 4.13
Red cards0.14league 0.21
Cards 5+64%league 42%
Fouls22.8league 24.2
Penalties0.43league 0.36
Home wins57%league 51%
Maccabi Tel Aviv

No previous matches with this referee.

Bologna

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Maccabi Tel Aviv7 games · scored 2 · conceded 19
1 1 0-15
4 16-30
4 31-45
1 4 46-60
3 61-75
3 76-90
Bologna7 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
2 2 0-15
2 1 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
3 61-75
1 76-90
Maccabi Tel Aviv10 games · scored 8 · conceded 22
2 2 0-15
4 16-30
2 6 31-45
2 4 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
2 0-15
2 2 16-30
2 4 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 5 61-75
2 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures UEFA Europa League

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