La Liga Gameweek 15 Sun, Dec 6 · 16:00 Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla
Sevilla 6th · 14 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Malaga 20th · 4 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel156 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Sevilla—%
Draw—%
Malaga—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Sevilla)

Forecast from 21 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Sevilla and Malaga. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

SevillaMalaga
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
50 Current StrengthIn forecast 41
48 AttackIn forecast 28
57 DefenceIn forecast 31
67 Form indexContext 15
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sevilla

Attack—
Defense risk—

Malaga

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SevillaMalaga
1.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67
1.78 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.05 xGVia Att/Def 0.84
1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68
+0.51 Goals minus xGContext -0.17
100% Scored inContext 56%
22% Clean sheetsContext 11%
11.78 ShotsContext 11.33
4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00
37% On target shareContext 27%
7.44 Shots in the boxContext 6.67
61% Box shareContext 62%
13% ConversionContext 6%
2.14 OffsidesContext 1.63
12.67 Shots allowedContext 14.89
5.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.89
3.29 BlocksContext 4.00
3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78
60% Save rateContext 64%
41% PossessionIn forecast 51%
344 PassesContext 481
267 Accurate passesContext 417
78% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.74 Team ratingContext 6.70
14.67 FoulsContext 11.56
12.89 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.44
0.22 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.03 xGVia Att/Def 0.84
1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68
+0.37 Goals minus xGContext -0.04
90% Scored inContext 60%
20% Clean sheetsContext 10%
11.50 ShotsContext 11.40
4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20
36% On target shareContext 28%
7.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
59% Box shareContext 64%
12% ConversionContext 7%
2.13 OffsidesContext 1.63
12.60 Shots allowedContext 14.70
5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90
3.00 BlocksContext 3.70
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90
60% Save rateContext 66%
42% PossessionIn forecast 51%
353 PassesContext 474
278 Accurate passesContext 408
79% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.72 Team ratingContext 6.74
15.20 FoulsContext 10.90
12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
2.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sevilla
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,482 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 67 · 7 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.1 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Real Madrid1–40.4 xPts
  • D12 OctA · Levante3–31.2 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Barcelona1–30.5 xPts
  • W16 SepA · Deportivo La Coruna1–01.2 xPts
  • W11 SepH · Valencia1–01.7 xPts
Malaga
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel156 km1,436 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 15 · 2 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Real Sociedad2–51.5 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Espanyol1–11.6 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Getafe0–11.2 xPts
  • L17 SepH · Villarreal1–31.3 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Celta Vigo1–11.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Sevilla Malaga
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 29 Nov7La Liga 2026-2027, 29 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km156 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,482 km1,436 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 21 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sevilla Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Real Madrid (A) 1–4, 18 Oct
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
17G. Suazo 4Kike Salas 5A. López Gallo 2Juan Iglesias
24Y. Fofana 6L. Agoumé
20Félix Correia 10Peque Fernández 11R. Vargas
9R. Ure
Malaga Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 2–5, 18 Oct
1Alfonso Herrero(G)
12José Salinas 15Ángel Recio 20F. Calero Villa 31Rafita
18Pablo Martínez 8Carlos Dotor 23Izan Merino 10David Larrubia
9Chupe 21Adrián Niño

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Sevilla Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Malaga Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Sevilla · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-0-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.75
Malaga · Away 0.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-1-3
Scored
0.25
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentSevillaMalaga
Real Madrid L 1–4 A L 0–4 A
Levante D 3–3 A D 0–0 H
Deportivo La Coruna W 1–0 A D 1–1 H
Espanyol D 1–1 A D 1–1 H
Atletico Madrid L 1–3 H L 0–2 A
Points5 of 15 · 1.00 per game3 of 15 · 0.60 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

SevillaMalagaForecast
Scored per game 1.560.67
Conceded per game 1.782.00
Match goals 3.332.67
Over 1.5 78%78%
Over 2.5 67%33%
Over 3.5 56%33%
Both teams scored 78%56%
Clean sheets 22%11%
Failed to score 0%44%
Games99
SevillaMalagaForecast
Scored per game 1.400.67
Conceded per game 1.702.00
Match goals 3.102.67
Over 1.5 70%78%
Over 2.5 60%33%
Over 3.5 50%33%
Both teams scored 70%56%
Clean sheets 20%11%
Failed to score 10%44%
Games109

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SevillaMalagaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.005.56
Corners conceded3.564.89
Match total6.5610.459.91
Over 8.522% 2/978% 7/9
Over 9.522% 2/967% 6/9
Over 10.511% 1/944% 4/9
Cards
Cards3.332.44
Opponent cards2.112.33
Match total5.444.774.73
Over 3.578% 7/967% 6/9
Over 4.556% 5/967% 6/9
SevillaMalagaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.005.70
Corners conceded3.605.10
Match total6.6010.809.91
Over 8.520% 2/1080% 8/10
Over 9.520% 2/1070% 7/10
Over 10.510% 1/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards3.102.60
Opponent cards2.002.30
Match total5.104.904.73
Over 3.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 4.550% 5/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Sevilla9 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
2 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 31-45
5 2 46-60
1 3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Malaga9 games · scored 6 · conceded 18
1 2 0-15
5 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
2 4 76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 31-45
5 3 46-60
1 3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Malaga10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
1 2 0-15
5 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 1 46-60
3 3 61-75
2 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Celta Vigo Dec 616:00 Atletico Madrid Real Betis Dec 616:00 Athletic Club Real Madrid Dec 616:00 Villarreal Real Sociedad Dec 616:00 Sevilla Malaga Dec 616:00 Alaves Espanyol Dec 616:00 Getafe Valencia Dec 616:00 Osasuna Elche Dec 616:00 Rayo Vallecano Levante Dec 616:00 Racing Santander Deportivo La Coruna Dec 616:00