Manchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Manchester City were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Manchester City. Manchester City had 7 days of rest, Arsenal 8.2 and had to travel 262 km.
Away travel262 kmRest days7 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Manchester City41%
Draw26%
Arsenal33%
Manchester City33%
Draw27%
Arsenal39%
Manchester City40%
Draw26%
Arsenal33%
Manchester City34%
Draw26%
Arsenal40%
Manchester City40%
Draw28%
Arsenal33%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Taylor
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 200
Team strength
Manchester City
Arsenal
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
94
91
Current StrengthIn forecast
94
92
AttackIn forecast
86
82
DefenceIn forecast
95
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester CityArsenal
2.03
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.94
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.73
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
87%
Scored inContext
91%
42%
Clean sheetsContext
47%
14.87
ShotsContext
14.66
5.32
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.88
36%
On target shareContext
33%
10.97
Shots in the boxContext
10.78
73%
Box shareContext
74%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.74
OffsidesContext
2.14
9.84
Shots allowedContext
7.81
3.42
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.78
3.07
BlocksContext
3.00
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
74%
Save rateContext
75%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
589
PassesContext
472
522
Accurate passesContext
398
89%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.11
Team ratingContext
7.04
10.10
FoulsContext
10.25
11.26
Fouls sufferedContext
11.03
1.84
Yellow cardsContext
1.28
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.76
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
90%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
16.70
ShotsContext
13.70
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
36%
On target shareContext
34%
11.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
69%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.83
11.50
Shots allowedContext
8.40
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.44
BlocksContext
2.22
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
74%
Save rateContext
86%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
605
PassesContext
444
544
Accurate passesContext
371
90%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.99
10.40
FoulsContext
9.40
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester City
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Arsenal
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel262 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester City |
Arsenal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 12 Apr | 8.2Premier League 2025-2026, 11 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 524 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly
15A. Guéhi
45A. Khusanov
27M. Nunes
16Rodri
20Bernardo Silva
11J. Doku
10M. Cherki
42A. Semenyo
9E. Haaland
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
5P. Hincapié
6Gabriel Magalhães
2W. Saliba
3Cristhian Mosquera
41D. Rice
36Martín Zubimendi
8M. Ødegaard
10E. Eze
29K. Havertz
20C. Madueke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester City
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Arsenal
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester City+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Arsenal-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester City · Home
2.40points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-3-1
- Scored
- 2.40
- Conceded
- 0.73
Arsenal · Away
2.00points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-5-2
- Scored
- 1.63
- Conceded
- 0.81
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Manchester City | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| West Ham | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Nottingham Forest | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Leeds | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H | W 4–0 AW 5–0 H |
| Newcastle | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Fulham | W 3–0 HW 5–4 A | W 1–0 A |
| Liverpool | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Tottenham | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H | W 4–1 AW 4–1 H |
| Wolves | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Manchester United | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H | L 2–3 HW 1–0 A |
| Brighton | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Sunderland | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H | W 3–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Bournemouth | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Aston Villa | L 0–1 A | W 4–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Everton | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Brentford | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Burnley | W 5–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 63 of 90 · 2.10 per game | 69 of 93 · 2.23 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
5 Manchester City wins3 draws2 Arsenal wins
Goals per game1.90 – 1.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets30% · 20%
- 21 Sep 2025Arsenal1–1Manchester City
- 2 Feb 2025Arsenal5–1Manchester City
- 22 Sep 2024Manchester City2–2Arsenal
- 31 Mar 2024Manchester City0–0Arsenal
- 8 Oct 2023Arsenal1–0Manchester City
- 26 Apr 2023Manchester City4–1Arsenal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester City | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.03 | 1.94 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.94 | 2.69 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 53% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 42% | 47% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 9% | |
| Games | 31 | 32 |
| Manchester City | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester City | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.87 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.83 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 9.40 | 10.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 19/30 | 53% 16/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 14/30 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 10/30 | 47% 14/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.84 | 1.28 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 1.94 | |
| Match total | 3.97 | 3.22 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 20/31 | 44% 14/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 11/31 | 22% 7/32 | |
| Manchester City | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.20 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 9.40 | 10.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.20 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 3.76
Red cards0.15league 0.12
Cards 5+38%league 39%
Fouls21.1league 21.5
Penalties0.24league 0.21
Home wins36%league 42%
Manchester City23 with this referee
Record10-5-8
Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.1
Pens for · against3 · 4
Reds1
- L17 Jan 26A · Manchester United0–23
- W2 Nov 25H · Bournemouth3–12
- W14 Sep 25H · Manchester United3–00
- L23 Feb 25H · Liverpool0–20
- D14 Jan 25A · Brentford2–20
Arsenal21 with this referee
Record12-7-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.1
Pens for · against4 · 2
Reds1
- D8 Jan 26H · Liverpool0–02
- D30 Nov 25A · Chelsea1–16
- W18 Oct 25A · Fulham1–00
- D11 May 25A · Liverpool2–23
- D9 Mar 25A · Manchester United1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester City31 games · scored 63 · conceded 28
8
0-15
8
3
16-30
19
5
31-45
8
6
46-60
12
8
61-75
8
6
76-90
Arsenal32 games · scored 62 · conceded 24
6
2
0-15
5
1
16-30
12
6
31-45
14
3
46-60
10
4
61-75
15
8
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
2
0-15
3
4
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Arsenal10 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
