Manchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Manchester City
8th · 16 pts · 9 played
DWWWL
3–1Full time
Bournemouth
2nd · 18 pts · 9 played
DDWDW
Our take
Manchester City were slight favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 75). Manchester City had 7.1 days of rest, Bournemouth 7.1 and had to travel 308 km.
Away travel308 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Manchester City59%
Draw22%
Bournemouth19%
Manchester City57%
Draw24%
Bournemouth19%
Manchester City60%
Draw22%
Bournemouth18%
Manchester City51%
Draw24%
Bournemouth24%
Manchester City57%
Draw24%
Bournemouth19%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Taylor
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 191
Team strength
Manchester CityBournemouth
88
L90 StrengthIn forecast
75
91
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
92
AttackIn forecast
83
82
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBournemouth
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester CityBournemouth
1.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.78
0.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.55
78%
Scored inContext
89%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
13.67
ShotsContext
12.44
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
35%
On target shareContext
37%
9.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.22
71%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.33
9.56
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.00
BlocksContext
3.00
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
74%
Save rateContext
71%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
559
PassesContext
421
493
Accurate passesContext
340
88%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.89
9.00
FoulsContext
12.56
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.78
1.56
Yellow cardsContext
2.56
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
90%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.80
ShotsContext
13.20
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
37%
On target shareContext
36%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
72%
Box shareContext
57%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.30
8.30
Shots allowedContext
10.20
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
2.89
BlocksContext
3.00
1.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
72%
Save rateContext
71%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
612
PassesContext
429
550
Accurate passesContext
346
90%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.14
Team ratingContext
6.93
9.50
FoulsContext
13.20
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester City
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km227 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bournemouth
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel308 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester City |
Bournemouth |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 308 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 227 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly
24J. Gvardiol
3Rúben Dias
27M. Nunes
47P. Foden
14Nico González
20Bernardo Silva
11J. Doku
10M. Cherki
9E. Haaland
Bournemouth
Confirmed XI
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert
5M. Senesi
18B. Diakité
20Álex Jiménez
8A. Scott
12T. Adams
24A. Semenyo
16M. Tavernier
7D. Brooks
22E. Kroupi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester City
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bournemouth
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester City-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Bournemouth+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester City · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.75
Bournemouth · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Manchester City | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Tottenham | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Wolves | W 4–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
5 Manchester City wins0 draws1 Bournemouth wins
Goals per game3.17 – 0.83
Over 2.583%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 20 May 2025Manchester City3–1Bournemouth
- 2 Nov 2024Bournemouth2–1Manchester City
- 24 Feb 2024Bournemouth0–1Manchester City
- 4 Nov 2023Manchester City6–1Bournemouth
- 25 Feb 2023Bournemouth1–4Manchester City
- 13 Aug 2022Manchester City4–0Bournemouth
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.89 | 1.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.78 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.00 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 56% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 56% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.89 | 1.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.78 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.00 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 56% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 56% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 5.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 9.76 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.56 | 2.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.89 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.45 | 4.56 | 3.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 9.44 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.30 | 3.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Taylor 191 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.54
Red cards0.15league 0.11
Cards 5+34%league 39%
Fouls21.0league 21.8
Penalties0.28league 0.18
Home wins35%league 51%
Manchester City23 with this referee
Record10-6-7
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against3 · 4
Reds1
- W14 Sep 25H · Manchester United3–00
- L23 Feb 25H · Liverpool0–20
- D14 Jan 25A · Brentford2–20
- L15 Dec 24H · Manchester United1–21
- W18 Aug 24A · Chelsea2–01
Bournemouth7 with this referee
Record0-2-5
Cards · opp.2.6 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L15 Aug 25A · Liverpool2–42
- L14 Sep 24H · Chelsea0–16
- L19 May 24A · Chelsea1–23
- D9 Mar 24H · Sheffield Utd2–23
- L23 Apr 23H · West Ham0–41
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester City9 games · scored 17 · conceded 7
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Bournemouth9 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 19 · conceded 7
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
