Manchester City
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Manchester City
8th · 16 pts · 9 played
DWWWL
3–1Full time
Bournemouth
2nd · 18 pts · 9 played
DDWDW
Manchester City59.1%fair odds 1.69
Draw22.3%fair odds 4.49
Bournemouth18.6%fair odds 5.38
Expected goals2.01 – 1.04total 3.05
Likeliest score1–110.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bournemouth
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Manchester City ↓ · Bournemouth → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Manchester City goals, columns Bournemouth goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.4%9.57
- 2–19.9%10.05
- 2–09.5%10.49
- 1–09.0%11.13
- 3–16.7%15.04
- 3–06.4%15.69
- 0–05.3%18.99
- 2–25.2%19.27
- 1–25.2%19.32
- 0–14.4%22.62
Winning margin
17.9%
Manchester City by 3+
fair 5.60
18.2%
Manchester City by 2
fair 5.50
23.1%
Manchester City by 1
fair 4.33
22.3%
Draw
fair 4.49
11.8%
Bournemouth by 1
fair 8.51
4.9%
Bournemouth by 2
fair 20.31
1.9%
Bournemouth by 3+
fair 52.34
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Manchester City goals
13%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
Bournemouth goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City win | 59.1% | 56.6% | +2.5 pp |
| Draw | 22.3% | 24.2% | -1.9 pp |
| Bournemouth win | 18.6% | 19.2% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.8% | 51.9% | +6.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.6% | 51.9% | +4.7 pp |
| Expected goals Manchester City | 2.01 | 1.80 | +0.21 |
| Expected goals Bournemouth | 1.04 | 0.95 | +0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Manchester City win59.1%1.69
- Draw22.3%4.49
- Bournemouth win18.6%5.38
- Double chance Manchester City or draw81.4%1.23
- Double chance Manchester City or Bournemouth77.7%1.29
- Double chance Bournemouth or draw40.9%2.45
- Draw no bet Manchester City76.1%1.31
- Draw no bet Bournemouth23.9%4.18
Goals
- Over 0.594.7%1.06
- Over 1.581.3%1.23
- Over 2.558.8%1.70
- Over 3.536.4%2.75
- Over 4.519.3%5.18
- Under 1.518.7%5.36
- Under 2.541.2%2.43
- Under 3.563.6%1.57
Both teams to score
- Yes56.6%1.77
- No43.4%2.30
- Yes and over 2.546.1%2.17
- Manchester City win and yes29.2%3.43
- Draw and yes17.0%5.88
- Bournemouth win and yes10.4%9.62
Team goals
- Manchester City over 0.586.5%1.16
- Manchester City over 1.559.5%1.68
- Manchester City over 2.532.5%3.08
- Bournemouth over 0.564.8%1.54
- Bournemouth over 1.528.0%3.57
- Bournemouth over 2.58.8%11.31
- Manchester City clean sheet35.2%2.84
- Bournemouth clean sheet13.5%7.43
- Manchester City win to nil30.0%3.34
- Bournemouth win to nil8.2%12.21
Handicap
- Manchester City −1.536.1%2.77
- Manchester City −2.517.9%5.60
- Bournemouth +1.563.9%1.56
- Bournemouth +2.582.1%1.22
- Bournemouth −1.56.8%14.63
- Manchester City +1.593.2%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored98
Favourite won54.1%
Avg chance given to result40.4%
1X2 Brier0.589
Over 2.5 called right54.1%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 15 | 38.2% | 40.0% |
| 40–50% | 36 | 44.4% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 26 | 54.0% | 53.8% |
| 60–70% | 16 | 64.4% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 74.2% | 60.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 68 of 98 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5826 | 0.5711 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 41.7% |
| Favourite won | 54.4% | 54.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 68 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 98 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.