Manchester United vs Bournemouth – 15 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 16 Mon, Dec 15 · 20:00 Old Trafford, Manchester

Manchester United 8th · 25 pts · 15 played DLWDW

4–4Full time

Bournemouth 15th · 20 pts · 15 played LDLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester United were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Bournemouth. Manchester United had 7 days of rest, Bournemouth 9.2 and had to travel 308 km.

Away travel308 kmRest days7 · 9.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Manchester United51%

Draw24%

Bournemouth25%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.21

Manchester United48%

Draw26%

Bournemouth26%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.12

Manchester United49%

Draw25%

Bournemouth26%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.21

Manchester United43%

Draw25%

Bournemouth32%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.36

Manchester United49%

Draw26%

Bournemouth25%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.12

Over 2.5 58% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

No weather data yet

RefereeSimon Hooper

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 133

Team strength

Manchester United

Bournemouth

75 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

72 AttackIn forecast 83

80 DefenceIn forecast 82

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester United

Bournemouth

1.73 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.47 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.83 xGVia Att/Def 1.40

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.00

80% Scored inContext 73%

7% Clean sheetsContext 33%

16.07 ShotsContext 13.07

5.47 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

34% On target shareContext 37%

11.29 Shots in the boxContext 8.43

66% Box shareContext 59%

11% ConversionContext 11%

1.79 OffsidesContext 2.33

10.87 Shots allowedContext 11.40

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

3.07 BlocksContext 3.00

2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14

59% Save rateContext 66%

54% PossessionIn forecast 52%

465 PassesContext 434

380 Accurate passesContext 354

82% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.82

10.50 FoulsContext 13.00

12.33 Fouls sufferedContext 10.93

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.53

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 15 and 15 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.72 xGVia Att/Def 1.46

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

+0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

90% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.00 ShotsContext 12.80

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

38% On target shareContext 41%

11.44 Shots in the boxContext 8.44

66% Box shareContext 58%

13% ConversionContext 12%

1.78 OffsidesContext 2.40

11.70 Shots allowedContext 13.10

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

3.10 BlocksContext 3.70

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

62% Save rateContext 65%

54% PossessionIn forecast 54%

473 PassesContext 458

384 Accurate passesContext 379

81% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.80

10.78 FoulsContext 13.60

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester United

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km200 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bournemouth

Rest9.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel308 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester United	Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 8 Dec	9.2Premier League 2025-2026, 6 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	308 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	200 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	4.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester United Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

31S. Lammens(G)

23L. Shaw 26A. Heaven 15L. Yoro

2Diogo Dalot 18Casemiro 8Bruno Fernandes 16A. Diallo

7Mason Mount 19B. Mbeumo

10Matheus Cunha

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 18B. Diakité 15A. Smith

12T. Adams 16M. Tavernier

24A. Semenyo 19J. Kluivert 20Álex Jiménez

9Evanilson

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester United Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bournemouth Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester United+1.3 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Bournemouth-0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Manchester United · Home 1.86points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-2
Scored: 1.71
Conceded: 1.14

Bournemouth · Away 0.71points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-4
Scored: 1.57
Conceded: 2.71

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 12 this season

Opponent	Manchester United	Bournemouth
Wolves	W 4–1 A	W 1–0 H
West Ham	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 H
Crystal Palace	W 2–1 A	D 3–3 A
Everton	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 H
Tottenham	D 2–2 A	W 1–0 A
Nottingham Forest	D 2–2 A	W 2–0 H
Brighton	W 4–2 H	W 2–1 H
Liverpool	W 2–1 A	L 2–4 A
Sunderland	W 2–0 H	L 2–3 A
Chelsea	W 2–1 H	D 0–0 H
Manchester City	L 0–3 A	L 1–3 A
Fulham	D 1–1 A	W 3–1 H
Points	22 of 36 · 1.83 per game	18 of 36 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Manchester United wins2 draws2 Bournemouth wins

Goals per game1.17 – 1.50 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%

27 Apr 2025Bournemouth1–1Manchester United
22 Dec 2024Manchester United0–3Bournemouth
13 Apr 2024Bournemouth2–2Manchester United
9 Dec 2023Manchester United0–3Bournemouth
20 May 2023Bournemouth0–1Manchester United
3 Jan 2023Manchester United3–0Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester United	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	1.73	1.40
Conceded per game	1.47	1.60
Match goals	3.20	3.00	3.01
Over 1.5	87%	67%
Over 2.5	67%	60%	58%
Over 3.5	40%	53%
Both teams scored	73%	53%	59%
Clean sheets	7%	33%
Failed to score	20%	27%
Games	15	15

	Manchester United	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.50
Conceded per game	1.40	1.90
Match goals	3.40	3.40	3.01
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	70%	58%
Over 3.5	50%	70%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	59%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester United	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	5.31
Corners conceded	4.53	4.92
Match total	9.20	10.23	9.92
Over 8.5	47% 7/15	69% 9/13
Over 9.5	47% 7/15	62% 8/13
Over 10.5	27% 4/15	54% 7/13
Cards
Cards	1.47	2.60
Opponent cards	2.60	2.27
Match total	4.07	4.87	3.78
Over 3.5	67% 10/15	73% 11/15
Over 4.5	47% 7/15	47% 7/15

	Manchester United	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	5.00
Corners conceded	4.70	5.44
Match total	9.20	10.44	9.92
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.50
Opponent cards	2.30	2.10
Match total	4.00	4.60	3.78
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simon Hooper 133 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.93league 3.64

Red cards0.06league 0.11

Cards 5+36%league 38%

Fouls21.7league 21.9

Penalties0.17league 0.20

Home wins49%league 49%

Manchester United9 with this referee

Record4-2-3 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.2 Pens for · against2 · 0

L17 Aug 25H · Arsenal0–11
L30 Dec 24H · Newcastle0–21
D30 Mar 24A · Brentford1–12
W9 Mar 24H · Everton2–01
L23 Dec 23A · West Ham0–23

Bournemouth7 with this referee

Record4-0-3 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

W3 Oct 25H · Fulham3–10
W30 Aug 25A · Tottenham1–04
W5 Dec 24H · Tottenham1–02
L31 Dec 23A · Tottenham1–32
L27 Dec 22A · Chelsea0–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.