Manchester United vs Newcastle – 26 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 18 Fri, Dec 26 · 20:00 Old Trafford, Manchester

Manchester United 7th · 26 pts · 17 played WDWDL

1–0Full time

Newcastle 11th · 23 pts · 17 played WDWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Manchester United. Manchester United had 5.1 days of rest, Newcastle 6.3 and had to travel 171 km.

Away travel171 kmRest days5.1 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 2

Manchester United40%

Draw26%

Newcastle35%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.43

Manchester United40%

Draw27%

Newcastle33%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.27

Manchester United41%

Draw26%

Newcastle33%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.37

Manchester United32%

Draw25%

Newcastle42%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.60

Manchester United39%

Draw27%

Newcastle35%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.32

Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

No weather data yet

RefereeAnthony Taylor

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 200

Team strength

Manchester United

Newcastle

73 L90 StrengthIn forecast 78

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

72 AttackIn forecast 61

80 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester United

Newcastle

1.82 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.35

1.65 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29

1.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

82% Scored inContext 76%

6% Clean sheetsContext 29%

16.53 ShotsContext 12.12

5.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.35

35% On target shareContext 36%

11.31 Shots in the boxContext 7.35

65% Box shareContext 59%

11% ConversionContext 11%

1.73 OffsidesContext 1.89

11.12 Shots allowedContext 10.53

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.88

3.20 BlocksContext 3.67

2.53 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

58% Save rateContext 72%

54% PossessionIn forecast 51%

461 PassesContext 438

377 Accurate passesContext 363

82% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.93

10.25 FoulsContext 10.81

11.82 Fouls sufferedContext 11.76

1.47 Yellow cardsContext 1.35

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

+0.39 Goals minus xGContext +0.24

90% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 10%

17.10 ShotsContext 12.00

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

37% On target shareContext 44%

11.78 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

63% Box shareContext 68%

13% ConversionContext 15%

1.88 OffsidesContext 2.50

12.50 Shots allowedContext 12.20

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.78 BlocksContext 3.80

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

56% Save rateContext 72%

55% PossessionIn forecast 51%

468 PassesContext 441

383 Accurate passesContext 371

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.93

10.44 FoulsContext 9.63

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester United

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km227 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Newcastle

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel171 km33 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester United	Newcastle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.1Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Dec	6.3Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	171 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	227 km	33 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	4	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester United Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31S. Lammens(G)

23L. Shaw 6L. Martínez 26A. Heaven 2Diogo Dalot

25M. Ugarte 18Casemiro

10Matheus Cunha 7Mason Mount 13P. Dorgu

30B. Šeško

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

32A. Ramsdale(G)

3L. Hall 5F. Schär 12M. Thiaw 67L. Miley

41J. Ramsey 39Bruno Guimarães 8S. Tonali

10A. Gordon 27N. Woltemade 23J. Murphy

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester United Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Newcastle Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester United-1.2 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Newcastle+1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Manchester United · Home 1.75points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-2
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.50

Newcastle · Away 0.75points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-4
Scored: 0.88
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Manchester United	Newcastle
Aston Villa	L 1–2 A	D 0–0 A
Bournemouth	D 4–4 H	D 0–0 A
Wolves	W 4–1 A	W 1–0 H
West Ham	D 1–1 H	L 1–3 A
Everton	L 0–1 H	W 4–1 A
Tottenham	D 2–2 A	D 2–2 H
Nottingham Forest	D 2–2 A	W 2–0 H
Brighton	W 4–2 H	L 1–2 A
Liverpool	W 2–1 A	L 2–3 H
Sunderland	W 2–0 H	L 0–1 A
Brentford	L 1–3 A	L 1–3 A
Chelsea	W 2–1 H	D 2–2 H
Manchester City	L 0–3 A	W 2–1 H
Burnley	W 3–2 H	W 2–1 H
Fulham	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 H
Arsenal	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 H
Points	23 of 48 · 1.44 per game	22 of 48 · 1.38 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Manchester United wins2 draws4 Newcastle wins

Goals per game1.60 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored60% Clean sheets10% · 40%

13 Apr 2025Newcastle4–1Manchester United
30 Dec 2024Manchester United0–2Newcastle
15 May 2024Manchester United3–2Newcastle
2 Dec 2023Newcastle1–0Manchester United
2 Apr 2023Newcastle2–0Manchester United
16 Oct 2022Manchester United0–0Newcastle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester United	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.82	1.35
Conceded per game	1.65	1.29
Match goals	3.47	2.65	2.96
Over 1.5	88%	71%
Over 2.5	71%	65%	57%
Over 3.5	41%	35%
Both teams scored	76%	65%	60%
Clean sheets	6%	29%
Failed to score	18%	24%
Games	17	17

	Manchester United	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.70
Conceded per game	1.70	1.70
Match goals	3.90	3.40	2.96
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	90%	57%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	90%	90%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester United	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.71	6.12
Corners conceded	4.53	5.65
Match total	9.24	11.77	9.83
Over 8.5	53% 9/17	76% 13/17
Over 9.5	47% 8/17	59% 10/17
Over 10.5	24% 4/17	47% 8/17
Cards
Cards	1.53	1.47
Opponent cards	2.53	2.47
Match total	4.06	3.94	3.88
Over 3.5	65% 11/17	47% 8/17
Over 4.5	47% 8/17	35% 6/17

	Manchester United	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	5.80
Corners conceded	4.90	7.20
Match total	10.00	13.00	9.83
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.80
Opponent cards	2.10	3.10
Match total	3.90	4.90	3.88
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.71league 3.72

Red cards0.15league 0.12

Cards 5+35%league 39%

Fouls21.1league 21.8

Penalties0.28league 0.21

Home wins35%league 48%

Manchester United22 with this referee

Record7-6-9 Cards · opp.2.5 · 0.8 Pens for · against4 · 3 Reds3

W25 Oct 25H · Brighton4–22
L14 Sep 25A · Manchester City0–30
L4 May 25A · Brentford3–42
D9 Mar 25H · Arsenal1–10
W26 Jan 25A · Fulham1–01

Newcastle13 with this referee

Record7-1-5 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

W26 Dec 24H · Aston Villa3–02
W10 Nov 24A · Nottingham Forest3–11
W4 May 24A · Burnley4–12
W10 Feb 24A · Nottingham Forest3–22
L1 Jan 24A · Liverpool2–45

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.