Manchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Manchester United
3rd · 65 pts · 36 played
LWWWD
3–2Full time
Nottingham Forest
16th · 43 pts · 36 played
DWWWD
Our take
Manchester United were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Nottingham Forest. Manchester United had 7.9 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 6.9 and had to travel 93 km.
Away travel93 kmRest days7.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 3
Manchester United51%
Draw24%
Nottingham Forest25%
Manchester United49%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest25%
Manchester United49%
Draw25%
Nottingham Forest27%
Manchester United44%
Draw25%
Nottingham Forest31%
Manchester United50%
Draw25%
Nottingham Forest25%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Salisbury
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 87
Team strength
Manchester UnitedNottingham Forest
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
76
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
72
AttackIn forecast
68
80
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester UnitedNottingham Forest
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
1.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
89%
Scored inContext
61%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
15.44
ShotsContext
12.50
5.58
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
36%
On target shareContext
33%
10.26
Shots in the boxContext
7.64
64%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.04
11.58
Shots allowedContext
12.75
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.19
3.85
BlocksContext
4.45
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
67%
Save rateContext
67%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
467
PassesContext
407
386
Accurate passesContext
334
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.09
FoulsContext
11.06
11.06
Fouls sufferedContext
11.74
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.61
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.77
90%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.90
ShotsContext
10.70
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
38%
On target shareContext
42%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
59%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
19%
1.40
OffsidesContext
1.78
13.30
Shots allowedContext
13.30
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
4.50
BlocksContext
4.10
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
76%
Save rateContext
83%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
464
PassesContext
389
383
Accurate passesContext
322
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.99
11.00
FoulsContext
12.00
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester United
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km336 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nottingham Forest
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel93 km496 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester United |
Nottingham Forest |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Premier League 2025-2026, 9 May | 6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 93 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 336 km | 496 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
31S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
6L. Martínez
5J. Maguire
2Diogo Dalot
37K. Mainoo
18Casemiro
10Matheus Cunha
8Bruno Fernandes
16A. Diallo
19B. Mbeumo
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
26M. Sels(G)
25L. Netz
4Morato
31N. Milenković
3N. Williams
10M. Gibbs-White
8E. Anderson
16N. Domínguez
21O. Hutchinson
11C. Wood
19Igor Jesus
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester United
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nottingham Forest
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester United+2.6 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Nottingham Forest-1.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester United · Home
2.17points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 12-3-3
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.22
Nottingham Forest · Away
1.33points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-8
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 1.39
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Manchester United | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | W 5–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Liverpool | W 3–2 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Brentford | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Chelsea | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H | W 3–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Leeds | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | L 1–3 AW 3–1 H |
| Bournemouth | D 2–2 AD 4–4 H | L 0–2 A |
| Aston Villa | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Newcastle | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Everton | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H | L 0–2 HL 0–3 A |
| West Ham | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Tottenham | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Fulham | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Arsenal | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Manchester City | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Burnley | D 2–2 AW 3–2 H | W 4–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Wolves | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Brighton | W 4–2 H | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Points | 64 of 105 · 1.83 per game | 42 of 105 · 1.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Manchester United wins1 draws3 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.25
Over 2.563%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets38% · 13%
- 1 Nov 2025Nottingham Forest2–2Manchester United
- 1 Apr 2025Nottingham Forest1–0Manchester United
- 7 Dec 2024Manchester United2–3Nottingham Forest
- 28 Feb 2024Nottingham Forest0–1Manchester United
- 30 Dec 2023Nottingham Forest2–1Manchester United
- 26 Aug 2023Manchester United3–2Nottingham Forest
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester United | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 2.56 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 53% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 72% | 44% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 39% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Manchester United | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.90 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester United | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.69 | 5.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 4.81 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 9.98 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 20/35 | 75% 27/36 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 19/35 | 58% 21/36 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 13/35 | 42% 15/36 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 1.64 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.22 | 1.81 | |
| Match total | 3.97 | 3.45 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 22/36 | 44% 16/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 16/36 | 22% 8/36 | |
| Manchester United | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 9.20 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.10 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Salisbury 87 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.64league 3.80
Red cards0.20league 0.12
Cards 5+37%league 39%
Fouls22.3league 21.6
Penalties0.29league 0.20
Home wins49%league 42%
Manchester United3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.0.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W8 Dec 25A · Wolves4–12
- W24 Apr 24H · Sheffield Utd4–20
- W3 Jan 23H · Bournemouth3–00
Nottingham Forest6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D12 Apr 26H · Aston Villa1–12
- W15 Mar 25A · Ipswich4–21
- L10 Mar 24A · Brighton0–14
- L12 Nov 23A · West Ham2–32
- W23 Apr 22A · Peterborough1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester United36 games · scored 63 · conceded 48
7
5
0-15
7
5
16-30
12
6
31-45
11
10
46-60
11
8
61-75
15
14
76-90
Nottingham Forest36 games · scored 45 · conceded 47
8
5
0-15
2
6
16-30
8
12
31-45
9
7
46-60
6
3
61-75
12
14
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
3
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
6
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 20 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
