Manchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Manchester United
9th · 21 pts · 13 played
WDDLW
1–1Full time
West Ham
18th · 11 pts · 13 played
LWWDL
Our take
Manchester United were slight favourites.
Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 54). Manchester United had 4.3 days of rest, West Ham 4.2 and had to travel 262 km.
Away travel262 kmRest days4.3 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Manchester United58%
Draw23%
West Ham19%
Manchester United57%
Draw24%
West Ham19%
Manchester United59%
Draw23%
West Ham19%
Manchester United50%
Draw25%
West Ham25%
Manchester United56%
Draw24%
West Ham20%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeAndrew Kitchen
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 64
Team strength
Manchester UnitedWest Ham
74
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
72
AttackIn forecast
68
80
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWest Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester UnitedWest Ham
1.62
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.15
1.54
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.08
1.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
77%
Scored inContext
62%
8%
Clean sheetsContext
8%
15.15
ShotsContext
9.77
5.23
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.27
35%
On target shareContext
37%
10.42
Shots in the boxContext
6.75
65%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.58
OffsidesContext
2.20
11.08
Shots allowedContext
15.23
3.85
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.54
2.92
BlocksContext
4.50
2.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.54
60%
Save rateContext
64%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
453
PassesContext
378
369
Accurate passesContext
303
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.17
FoulsContext
10.69
12.23
Fouls sufferedContext
10.23
1.31
Yellow cardsContext
1.62
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
80%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.90
ShotsContext
9.10
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
37%
On target shareContext
34%
9.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.11
62%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.60
Shots allowedContext
16.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
2.78
BlocksContext
5.22
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
63%
Save rateContext
68%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
451
PassesContext
359
365
Accurate passesContext
282
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.33
FoulsContext
11.60
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester United
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
West Ham
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel262 km301 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester United |
West Ham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.3Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 524 km | 301 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
31S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
26A. Heaven
3N. Mazraoui
2Diogo Dalot
8Bruno Fernandes
18Casemiro
16A. Diallo
10Matheus Cunha
19B. Mbeumo
11J. Zirkzee
West Ham
Confirmed XI
23A. Areola(G)
12E. Diouf
25J. Todibo
15K. Mavropanos
29A. Wan-Bissaka
32F. Potts
27S. Magassa
18Mateus Fernandes
20J. Bowen
28T. Souček
9C. Wilson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester United
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
West Ham
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester United-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- West Ham+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester United · Home
2.00points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-2
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 1.17
West Ham · Away
0.83points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Manchester United | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Everton | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Tottenham | D 2–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Nottingham Forest | D 2–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| Liverpool | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Sunderland | W 2–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Brentford | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 H | L 1–5 H |
| Burnley | W 3–2 H | W 3–2 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 17 of 30 · 1.70 per game | 7 of 30 · 0.70 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
6 Manchester United wins0 draws4 West Ham wins
Goals per game1.20 – 0.90
Over 2.540%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets40% · 30%
- 11 May 2025Manchester United0–2West Ham
- 27 Oct 2024West Ham2–1Manchester United
- 4 Feb 2024Manchester United3–0West Ham
- 23 Dec 2023West Ham2–0Manchester United
- 7 May 2023West Ham1–0Manchester United
- 30 Oct 2022Manchester United1–0West Ham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester United | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.62 | 1.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.54 | 2.08 | |
| Match goals | 3.15 | 3.23 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 69% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 54% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 8% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 38% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Manchester United | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester United | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.23 | 5.54 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.69 | 6.54 | |
| Match total | 8.92 | 12.08 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 5/13 | 85% 11/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 5/13 | 77% 10/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 3/13 | 77% 10/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.38 | 1.77 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.62 | 1.46 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.23 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 8/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 6/13 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Manchester United | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 6.60 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 11.70 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.00 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andrew Kitchen 64 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.11league 3.65
Red cards0.08league 0.12
Cards 5+22%league 40%
Fouls23.7league 22.0
Penalties0.11league 0.19
Home wins47%league 49%
Manchester UnitedNo previous matches with this referee.
West Ham1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D19 Apr 25H · Southampton1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester United13 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
3
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
6
76-90
West Ham13 games · scored 15 · conceded 27
2
4
0-15
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
6
61-75
7
5
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 11 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
