Maritimo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel0 kmRest days19.2 · 20.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Maritimo—%
Draw—%
Nacional—%
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
Forecast from 12 Nov
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Maritimo and Nacional. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Maritimo
75%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Nacional
−0.71
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.05xG against1.76
-
Alert
Nacional
2.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Nacional
6
Losses in a row
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row -
Insight
Maritimo
−0.36
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.05xG against1.41
-
Alert
Maritimo
1.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Alert
Nacional
2.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Nacional
−0.71
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.05xG against1.76
-
Alert
Maritimo
1.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Maritimo
−0.36
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.05xG against1.41
Team strength
MaritimoNacional
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
15
AttackIn forecast
15
20
DefenceIn forecast
13
12
Form indexContext
5
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MaritimoNacional
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.25
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.92
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
88%
Scored inContext
63%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
10.00
ShotsContext
11.00
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
33%
On target shareContext
28%
6.75
Shots in the boxContext
7.29
65%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
14.13
Shots allowedContext
14.63
5.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.25
3.57
BlocksContext
3.14
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
67%
Save rateContext
58%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
366
PassesContext
406
291
Accurate passesContext
334
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.55
Team ratingContext
6.61
15.25
FoulsContext
11.13
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.25
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
90%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.90
ShotsContext
10.50
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
30%
On target shareContext
28%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
64%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.43
13.60
Shots allowedContext
14.20
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.33
BlocksContext
3.22
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
69%
Save rateContext
63%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
372
PassesContext
390
300
Accurate passesContext
317
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.61
16.00
FoulsContext
12.20
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Maritimo
LLLDL
Rest19.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 12 · 1 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected
Nacional
LLLLL
Rest20.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 5 · 0 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -5.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Maritimo |
Nacional |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 19.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 8 Nov | 20.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 7 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.8 | 8.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Maritimo
Last XI · not confirmed
30Fran Vieites(G)
23Paulo Henrique
22G. Szalai
44Romain Correia
2Igor Julião
14R. Guzzo
21Ibrahim Alani
10Martín Tejón
8M. Dominguez
15Tomás Tavares
17Adrián Butzke
Nacional
Last XI · not confirmed
1R. Bellucci(G)
21W. Kokolo
38Zé Vitor
33Francisco Gonçalves
88Deivison
31D. Dongmo
15C. Labidi
12M. Song
20M. Djaló
10Daniel Júnior
29N. Kader
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Maritimo
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Nacional
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Maritimo · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.75
Nacional · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Maritimo | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | W 2–1 A | L 0–4 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Maritimo | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 3.38 | |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 63% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 63% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Maritimo | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 3.10 | |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 40% | |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 40% | |
| Games | 8 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Maritimo | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.88 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 7.38 | 9.83 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 13% 1/8 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/8 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/8 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.63 | 1.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.63 | |
| Match total | 3.88 | 4.01 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Maritimo | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 9.63 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.20 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Maritimo8 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Nacional8 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Maritimo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
3
7
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
