Nacional vs Academico Viseu

Primeira Liga Gameweek 11 Sat, Nov 7 · 15:30 Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira

Nacional 16th · 4 pts · 8 played LLLLL

VS— Compare

Academico Viseu 7th · 14 pts · 8 played LWWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Academico Viseu are slight favourites.

Academico Viseu are the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Academico Viseu. Nacional have 6 days of rest, Academico Viseu 5.9 and have to travel 1,196 km.

Away travel1,196 kmRest days6 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Nacional31%

Draw26%

Academico Viseu43%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.58

Nacional32%

Draw27%

Academico Viseu41%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.43

Nacional31%

Draw26%

Academico Viseu43%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.58

Nacional25%

Draw25%

Academico Viseu51%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.78

Nacional31%

Draw25%

Academico Viseu44%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.68

Over 2.5 55% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ilha da Madeira)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Nacional

Academico Viseu

17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 32

17 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

15 AttackIn forecast 28

13 DefenceIn forecast 31

5 Form indexContext 79

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nacional

Attack+9%

Defense risk−6%

Academico Viseu

Attack+38%

Defense risk−21%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Nacional

Academico Viseu

1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.38

2.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

1.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.78

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.36

63% Scored inContext 75%

13% Clean sheetsContext 25%

11.00 ShotsContext 10.00

3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

28% On target shareContext 35%

7.29 Shots in the boxContext 6.14

60% Box shareContext 59%

10% ConversionContext 14%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.50

14.63 Shots allowedContext 17.25

6.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.75

3.14 BlocksContext 4.13

3.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.38

58% Save rateContext 76%

50% PossessionIn forecast 48%

406 PassesContext 391

334 Accurate passesContext 320

82% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.61 Team ratingContext 6.90

11.13 FoulsContext 14.25

12.25 Fouls sufferedContext 13.13

1.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.88

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.38

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

1.05 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

1.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.78

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.36

60% Scored inContext 75%

20% Clean sheetsContext 25%

10.50 ShotsContext 10.00

3.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

28% On target shareContext 35%

6.78 Shots in the boxContext 6.14

60% Box shareContext 59%

11% ConversionContext 14%

1.43 OffsidesContext 1.50

14.20 Shots allowedContext 17.25

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.75

3.22 BlocksContext 4.13

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.38

63% Save rateContext 76%

49% PossessionIn forecast 48%

390 PassesContext 391

317 Accurate passesContext 320

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.61 Team ratingContext 6.90

12.20 FoulsContext 14.25

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 13.13

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.88

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 8 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nacional LLLLL

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,396 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 5 · 0 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -5.4 vs expected

L11 OctA · Rio Ave2–31.0 xPts
L19 SepH · Famalicao0–41.1 xPts
L12 SepH · Alverca1–31.4 xPts
L5 SepA · Sporting CP0–20.3 xPts
L30 AugH · Estrela2–31.6 xPts

Academico Viseu LWWWW

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,196 km480 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 79 · 12 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +6.0 vs expected

W10 OctH · Estoril2–11.8 xPts
W20 SepA · Estrela2–01.2 xPts
W12 SepH · Guimaraes2–11.4 xPts
W6 SepA · GIL Vicente1–01.0 xPts
L29 AugH · FC Porto0–30.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nacional	Academico Viseu
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 1 Nov	5.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,196 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,396 km	480 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	20.2	21.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nacional Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Rio Ave (A) 2–3, 11 Oct

1R. Bellucci(G)

21W. Kokolo 38Zé Vitor 33Francisco Gonçalves 88Deivison

31D. Dongmo 15C. Labidi

12M. Song 20M. Djaló 10Daniel Júnior

29N. Kader

Academico Viseu Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Estoril (H) 2–1, 10 Oct

98Ewerton(G)

3Miguel Brau 2N. Michelis 41A. Correia 75Robinho

7Luís Silva 8C. Kahraman

47L. Gohi 14S. Messeguem 31João Guilherme

33André Clóvis

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nacional No reported absences

Academico Viseu No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Nacional+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Academico Viseu+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Nacional · Home 0.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.50

Academico Viseu · Away 2.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-0
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Nacional	Academico Viseu
Estrela	L 2–3 H	W 2–0 A
Guimaraes	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 H
Estoril	W 2–0 H	W 2–1 H
Santa Clara	D 2–2 A	L 0–1 H
Points	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game	9 of 12 · 2.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Nacional	Academico Viseu	Forecast
Scored per game	1.13	1.38
Conceded per game	2.25	1.25
Match goals	3.38	2.63	2.90
Over 1.5	88%	75%
Over 2.5	63%	63%	55%
Over 3.5	63%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	59%
Clean sheets	13%	25%
Failed to score	38%	25%
Games	8	8

	Nacional	Academico Viseu	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.38
Conceded per game	2.00	1.25
Match goals	3.10	2.63	2.90
Over 1.5	90%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	63%	55%
Over 3.5	50%	25%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	59%
Clean sheets	20%	25%
Failed to score	40%	25%
Games	10	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nacional	Academico Viseu	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	2.75
Corners conceded	4.33	5.25
Match total	9.83	8.00	8.91
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	1.38	2.88
Opponent cards	2.63	1.75
Match total	4.01	4.63	4.55
Over 3.5	50% 4/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	50% 4/8

	Nacional	Academico Viseu	League
Corners
Corners won	5.13	2.75
Corners conceded	4.50	5.25
Match total	9.63	8.00	8.91
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.88
Opponent cards	2.50	1.75
Match total	4.20	4.63	4.55
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 4/8

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.