Guimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel310 kmRest days20.1 · 20Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Guimaraes—%
Draw—%
Estrela—%
Weather (Guimarães)
Forecast from 13 Nov
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Guimaraes and Estrela. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Guimaraes
+0.32
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.39xG against1.07
-
Trend
Estrela
75%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Estrela
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Estrela
−0.66
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.09xG against1.75
Attack
-
Insight
Guimaraes
+0.32
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.39xG against1.07
-
Trend
Estrela
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Estrela
75%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
GuimaraesEstrela
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
28
AttackIn forecast
24
39
DefenceIn forecast
27
13
Form indexContext
24
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GuimaraesEstrela
0.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.88
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-0.85
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
50%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
17.25
ShotsContext
12.63
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.13
23%
On target shareContext
33%
10.63
Shots in the boxContext
8.63
62%
Box shareContext
68%
4%
ConversionContext
14%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.60
9.13
Shots allowedContext
10.88
3.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
3.00
BlocksContext
2.13
2.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
62%
Save rateContext
61%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
449
PassesContext
412
370
Accurate passesContext
345
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.70
15.63
FoulsContext
10.75
9.88
Fouls sufferedContext
11.75
2.63
Yellow cardsContext
2.38
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
-0.89
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
40%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.60
ShotsContext
11.10
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
23%
On target shareContext
34%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
62%
Box shareContext
69%
3%
ConversionContext
14%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.50
8.90
Shots allowedContext
11.50
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.63
BlocksContext
2.40
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
62%
Save rateContext
63%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
448
PassesContext
384
370
Accurate passesContext
317
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.70
14.70
FoulsContext
11.00
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Guimaraes
LDLDL
Rest20.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 13 · 2 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected
Estrela
DWDLL
Rest20 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel310 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 24 · 5 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Guimaraes |
Estrela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 8 Nov | 20Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 310 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Guimaraes
Last XI · not confirmed
48O. Zych(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
28Thiago Balieiro
21T. Borevković
23T. Strata
8Gonçalo Nogueira
44L. Doucet
7O. Camara
20Samu
17M. Nogueira
9A. Jakupovic
Estrela
Last XI · not confirmed
24Léo Linck(G)
55Rafa Soares
5S. Leković
30Patrick Luan
21M. Scholze
39G. Doue
78Santiago Serra
10I. Stoica
14L. Zvonarek
99A. Marcus
37Leandro Antonetti
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Guimaraes
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Estrela
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Guimaraes · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Estrela · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Guimaraes | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| Academico Viseu | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Nacional | W 1–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Sporting CP | L 2–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Arouca | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 3 of 15 · 0.60 per game | 7 of 15 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
5 Guimaraes wins1 draws0 Estrela wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 14 Feb 2026Guimaraes2–1Estrela
- 14 Sep 2025Estrela0–2Guimaraes
- 16 Mar 2025Guimaraes2–0Estrela
- 27 Oct 2024Estrela2–2Guimaraes
- 21 Jan 2024Guimaraes3–0Estrela
- 13 Aug 2023Estrela0–1Guimaraes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Guimaraes | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.63 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.88 | |
| Match goals | 1.88 | 3.63 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 75% | |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 63% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 75% | |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Guimaraes | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 3.30 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 70% | |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Guimaraes | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 4.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.71 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 9.57 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.25 | 4.88 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Guimaraes | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 9.78 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.90 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Guimaraes7 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Estrela8 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Guimaraes9 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
1
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
