Moreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 9 Mon, Oct 27 · 20:15
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Our take
FC Porto were slight favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 31). Moreirense had 23.2 days of rest, FC Porto 4.1 and had to travel 35 km.
Away travel35 kmRest days23.2 · 4.1Matches / 14d0 · 1
Moreirense21%
Draw25%
FC Porto54%
Moreirense21%
Draw25%
FC Porto54%
Moreirense21%
Draw25%
FC Porto54%
Moreirense16%
Draw23%
FC Porto61%
Moreirense21%
Draw25%
FC Porto54%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves
- Cards per match 6.9
- Penalties per match 0.86
- Matches 7
Team strength
Moreirense
FC Porto
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
17
AttackIn forecast
74
27
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MoreirenseFC Porto
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.38
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.13
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.90
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.44
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
75%
Scored inContext
88%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
88%
9.50
ShotsContext
14.88
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.63
34%
On target shareContext
38%
6.25
Shots in the boxContext
10.13
64%
Box shareContext
68%
16%
ConversionContext
16%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.88
Shots allowedContext
9.00
4.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
3.71
BlocksContext
3.25
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.57
72%
Save rateContext
92%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
398
PassesContext
441
333
Accurate passesContext
379
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.04
14.38
FoulsContext
13.63
14.13
Fouls sufferedContext
9.63
3.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.88
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.40
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.67
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
70%
10.30
ShotsContext
14.30
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
40%
On target shareContext
32%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
65%
Box shareContext
67%
17%
ConversionContext
13%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.60
Shots allowedContext
9.20
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
3.22
BlocksContext
3.20
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.44
72%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
384
PassesContext
446
319
Accurate passesContext
381
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.95
14.50
FoulsContext
12.40
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
3.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Moreirense
Rest23.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Porto
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel35 km2,855 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Moreirense |
FC Porto |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 5 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 23.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 4.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 35 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 2,855 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
27Kiko
26Maracás
44Marcelo
76Dinis Pinto
8M. Stjepanović
20Benny
7Cedric Teguia
11Alan
2Diogo Travassos
99Maranhão
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
74Francisco Moura
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
20Alberto Baio
10Gabri Veiga
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
17Borja Sainz
9Samu Omorodion
11Pepê
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Moreirense · Home
3.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 0.75
FC Porto · Away
3.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 2.75
- Conceded
- 0.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Moreirense | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Nacional | L 2–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Casa Pia | W 2–1 H | W 4–0 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Rio Ave | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Guimaraes | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 9 of 18 · 1.50 per game | 18 of 18 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Moreirense wins0 draws4 FC Porto wins
Goals per game0.50 – 3.25
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 2 May 2025FC Porto3–1Moreirense
- 21 Dec 2024Moreirense0–3FC Porto
- 20 Jan 2024FC Porto5–0Moreirense
- 14 Aug 2023Moreirense1–2FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Moreirense | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 0.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 2.50 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 63% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 13% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 88% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Moreirense | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 0.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 2.30 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 70% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 20% | |
| Games | 8 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Moreirense | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.71 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.25 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.25 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.75 | 5.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Moreirense | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.66 | 9.20 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 5.60 | 5.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves Portugal · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.00league 5.19
Red cards0.86league 0.26
Cards 5+86%league 64%
Fouls29.8league 27.8
Penalties0.86league 0.46
Home wins29%league 38%
Moreirense1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 6.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 May 25A · AVS3–03
FC PortoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Moreirense8 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
6
76-90
FC Porto8 games · scored 19 · conceded 1
4
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
31-45
6
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
8
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 19 · conceded 4
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
