Nacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Alverca. Nacional had 6.8 days of rest, Alverca 6.9 and had to travel 992 km.
Away travel992 kmRest days6.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Nacional39%
Draw26%
Alverca35%
Nacional42%
Draw26%
Alverca32%
Nacional39%
Draw26%
Alverca35%
Nacional32%
Draw26%
Alverca42%
Nacional39%
Draw25%
Alverca35%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Nacional
Alverca
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
15
AttackIn forecast
38
13
DefenceIn forecast
42
20
Form indexContext
15
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NacionalAlverca
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.88
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.00
ShotsContext
9.80
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
28%
On target shareContext
31%
6.25
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
53%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.20
OffsidesContext
2.33
16.80
Shots allowedContext
13.00
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.20
BlocksContext
3.75
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
66%
Save rateContext
65%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
395
PassesContext
348
321
Accurate passesContext
275
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.57
10.80
FoulsContext
12.40
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
70%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.00
ShotsContext
8.70
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
33%
On target shareContext
33%
6.56
Shots in the boxContext
5.30
55%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
1.14
OffsidesContext
2.43
15.60
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.20
BlocksContext
3.88
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
76%
Save rateContext
65%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
371
PassesContext
351
296
Accurate passesContext
280
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.64
12.40
FoulsContext
13.10
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nacional
DWLLL
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,944 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 20 · 4 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
Alverca
LDLDL
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel992 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 15 · 2 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · -3.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nacional |
Alverca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 5 Sep | 6.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 992 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,944 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1R. Bellucci(G)
21W. Kokolo
38Zé Vitor
33Francisco Gonçalves
52Wesley Gasolina
8Miguel Baeza
6Matheus Dias
10Daniel Júnior
7M. Jensen
99Pablo Ruan
11S. Gavriel
Alverca
Confirmed XI
31Matheus Mendes(G)
12Isaac James
21Sergi Gómez
4Y. Bojang
55Francisco Chissumba
25Ian Luccas
6D. Gui
20Diogo Spencer
22Figueiredo
19D. Camara
10Chiquinho
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nacional+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alverca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nacional · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Alverca · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Nacional | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Estrela | L 2–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| Santa Clara | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Nacional wins0 draws1 Alverca wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 18 Apr 2026Nacional1–0Alverca
- 7 Dec 2025Alverca1–0Nacional
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nacional | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Nacional | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.30 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nacional | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.75 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.25 | 10.25 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.60 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Nacional | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.00 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.40 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Nacional5 games · scored 6 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Alverca5 games · scored 5 · conceded 10
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
7
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
