Nacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Benfica were clear favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 23). Nacional had 20.1 days of rest, Benfica 19.9 and had to travel 972 km.
Away travel972 kmRest days20.1 · 19.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Nacional14%
Draw22%
Benfica64%
Nacional14%
Draw21%
Benfica65%
Nacional14%
Draw22%
Benfica64%
Nacional10%
Draw19%
Benfica71%
Nacional14%
Draw21%
Benfica65%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Nacional
Benfica
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
77
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
15
AttackIn forecast
81
13
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBenfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NacionalBenfica
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.09
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.55
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.81
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
73%
Scored inContext
91%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
55%
11.09
ShotsContext
15.00
3.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.73
35%
On target shareContext
38%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
9.64
57%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.57
13.45
Shots allowedContext
9.18
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
4.09
BlocksContext
2.18
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
62%
Save rateContext
89%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
279
PassesContext
500
204
Accurate passesContext
431
73%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.06
14.64
FoulsContext
12.45
11.91
Fouls sufferedContext
13.64
2.73
Yellow cardsContext
2.73
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.80
ShotsContext
13.90
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
36%
On target shareContext
36%
6.88
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
55%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.80
13.60
Shots allowedContext
8.70
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
4.10
BlocksContext
2.00
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
62%
Save rateContext
83%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
279
PassesContext
453
203
Accurate passesContext
385
73%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.92
14.00
FoulsContext
10.40
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nacional
Rest20.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Benfica
Rest19.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel972 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nacional |
Benfica |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 19.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 972 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
5José Gomes
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
16Alan Nuñez
6Matheus Dias
28Liziero
11Paulinho Bóia
8Miguel Baeza
17M. Nourani
9J. Ramírez
Benfica
Confirmed XI
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl
30N. Otamendi
4António Silva
17A. Dedić
5E. Barrenechea
8F. Aursnes
10H. Sudakov
18L. Barreiro
67Rodrigo Rego
14V. Pavlidis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nacional+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Benfica+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nacional · Home
0.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.20
Benfica · Away
2.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-0
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 0.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Nacional | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Estrela | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Arouca | L 1–2 H | W 5–0 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Rio Ave | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 5 of 18 · 0.83 per game | 12 of 18 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Nacional wins0 draws2 Benfica wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 8 Mar 2025Benfica3–0Nacional
- 19 Dec 2024Nacional0–2Benfica
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nacional | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 0.55 | |
| Match goals | 2.36 | 2.64 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 27% | 64% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 45% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 55% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 9% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Nacional | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.80 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nacional | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.73 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.64 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 10.37 | 8.80 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 7/11 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 6/11 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 5/11 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.09 | 2.82 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.91 | 2.82 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 5.64 | 5.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 91% 10/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 91% 10/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Nacional | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.75 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 5.70 | 5.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Nacional11 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 18 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
4
31-45
5
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Benfica9 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
