Nacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nacional were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Estrela. Nacional had 7 days of rest, Estrela 15 and had to travel 969 km.
Away travel969 kmRest days7 · 15Matches / 14d2 · 0
Nacional45%
Draw25%
Estrela31%
Nacional49%
Draw25%
Estrela26%
Nacional45%
Draw25%
Estrela31%
Nacional37%
Draw25%
Estrela38%
Nacional45%
Draw24%
Estrela31%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalCarlos Macedo
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 41
Team strength
Nacional
Estrela
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
15
AttackIn forecast
24
13
DefenceIn forecast
27
41
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NacionalEstrela
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.29
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.77
67%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.33
ShotsContext
9.00
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
19%
On target shareContext
56%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
58%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
22%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
17.00
Shots allowedContext
14.50
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
4.33
BlocksContext
1.50
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
71%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
416
PassesContext
373
338
Accurate passesContext
306
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.67
FoulsContext
12.50
15.33
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
70%
Scored inContext
60%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.00
ShotsContext
10.50
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
31%
On target shareContext
35%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
54%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.14
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.60
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
4.90
BlocksContext
3.56
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
81%
Save rateContext
64%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
364
PassesContext
325
289
Accurate passesContext
256
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.50
FoulsContext
13.00
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nacional
DWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,474 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 41 · 4 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · +0.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nacional |
Estrela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 23 Aug | 15Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 15 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 969 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,474 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1R. Bellucci(G)
38Zé Vitor
6Matheus Dias
34Léo Santos
21W. Kokolo
22Filipe Soares
28Liziero
52Wesley Gasolina
10Daniel Júnior
8Miguel Baeza
99Pablo Ruan
Estrela
Confirmed XI
24Léo Linck(G)
55Rafa Soares
5S. Leković
30Luan Patrick
21M. Scholze
8Robinho
39G. Doue
14L. Zvonarek
10I. Stoica
37Leandro Antonetti
99A. Marcus
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nacional+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estrela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nacional · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Estrela · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Nacional wins1 draws2 Estrela wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 4 Apr 2026Nacional2–0Estrela
- 9 Nov 2025Estrela1–1Nacional
- 6 Apr 2025Nacional0–1Estrela
- 10 Nov 2024Estrela2–0Nacional
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nacional | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 4.00 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 100% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 2 |
| Nacional | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.80 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nacional | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 9.00 | 8.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.34 | 5.50 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Nacional | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.13 | 8.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 5.70 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Carlos Macedo Portugal · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.93league 3.89
Red cards0.20league 0.18
Cards 5+39%league 32%
Fouls28.2league 25.3
Penalties0.34league 0.29
Home wins54%league 43%
NacionalNo previous matches with this referee.
Estrela3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L14 Feb 26A · Guimaraes1–22
- D31 Aug 25A · Santa Clara0–02
- W29 Oct 23H · Famalicao1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nacional3 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Estrela2 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
2
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
31-45
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
