Nacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were slight favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nacional. Nacional had 7 days of rest, FC Porto 5.8 and had to travel 1,195 km.
Away travel1,195 kmRest days7 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Nacional18%
Draw25%
FC Porto57%
Nacional15%
Draw21%
FC Porto64%
Nacional18%
Draw25%
FC Porto57%
Nacional13%
Draw23%
FC Porto64%
Nacional18%
Draw25%
FC Porto57%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
No weather data yet
RefereeJosé Bessa
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 27
Team strength
Nacional
FC Porto
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
76
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
15
AttackIn forecast
74
13
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NacionalFC Porto
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.55
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
76%
Scored inContext
95%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
71%
11.95
ShotsContext
14.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
34%
On target shareContext
38%
7.63
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
59%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.19
OffsidesContext
2.16
14.52
Shots allowedContext
9.38
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.17
4.24
BlocksContext
3.52
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.06
68%
Save rateContext
89%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
314
PassesContext
456
239
Accurate passesContext
389
76%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.99
14.57
FoulsContext
13.33
11.43
Fouls sufferedContext
11.81
2.62
Yellow cardsContext
2.19
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.57
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.90
ShotsContext
13.80
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
32%
On target shareContext
36%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
61%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.11
15.70
Shots allowedContext
9.20
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.56
4.40
BlocksContext
3.30
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
74%
Save rateContext
82%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
353
PassesContext
454
278
Accurate passesContext
388
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.92
14.50
FoulsContext
13.20
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nacional
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,944 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
FC Porto
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,195 km407 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nacional |
FC Porto |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 5.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 9 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,195 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,944 km | 407 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
5José Gomes
38Zé Vitor
33Francisco Gonçalves
16Alan Nuñez
28Liziero
6Matheus Dias
26Joel Silva
11Paulinho Bóia
9J. Ramírez
7Witi
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
12Z. Sanusi
5J. Bednarek
3Thiago Silva
20Alberto Baio
86Rodrigo Mora
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
77O. Pietuszewski
27D. Gül
11Pepê
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nacional+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nacional · Home
1.10points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-5
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.70
FC Porto · Away
2.73points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 10-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Nacional | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | L 1–2 AW 4–0 H |
| Sporting CP | L 1–2 AL 1–4 H | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Santa Clara | D 3–3 H | W 1–0 A |
| Guimaraes | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| AVS | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Tondela | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Alverca | L 0–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Estrela | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Estoril | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Moreirense | W 3–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| SC Braga | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Arouca | L 1–2 H | W 4–0 A |
| Points | 21 of 60 · 1.05 per game | 53 of 60 · 2.65 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Nacional wins0 draws2 FC Porto wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets33% · 67%
- 13 Sep 2025FC Porto1–0Nacional
- 17 May 2025FC Porto3–0Nacional
- 12 Jan 2025Nacional2–0FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nacional | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 2.33 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 52% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 29% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 71% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 5% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Nacional | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nacional | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.06 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.85 | 3.39 | |
| Match total | 10.25 | 8.45 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 14/20 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 13/20 | 28% 5/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 10/20 | 22% 4/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.86 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 5.29 | 5.19 | 5.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 14/21 | 81% 17/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 14/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Nacional | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.11 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 8.57 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.70 | 5.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Bessa 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 4.94
Red cards0.30league 0.28
Cards 5+56%league 60%
Fouls25.1league 26.9
Penalties0.22league 0.45
Home wins44%league 41%
Nacional1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.7.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L17 May 25A · FC Porto0–37
FC Porto3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 5.0
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W9 Nov 25A · Famalicao1–02
- W17 May 25H · Nacional3–01
- W4 May 24A · Chaves3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nacional21 games · scored 27 · conceded 30
2
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
6
31-45
5
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
7
10
76-90
FC Porto21 games · scored 42 · conceded 7
5
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
7
1
31-45
10
2
46-60
8
1
61-75
7
1
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 19 · conceded 6
3
0-15
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
5
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
