Nacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Moreirense were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 23). Nacional had 5.9 days of rest, Moreirense 7 and had to travel 1,230 km.
Away travel1,230 kmRest days5.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Nacional35%
Draw28%
Moreirense36%
Nacional36%
Draw27%
Moreirense36%
Nacional35%
Draw28%
Moreirense36%
Nacional29%
Draw28%
Moreirense43%
Nacional36%
Draw27%
Moreirense36%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalHelder Malheiro
- Cards per match 5.8
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 48
Team strength
Nacional
Moreirense
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
15
AttackIn forecast
17
13
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMoreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NacionalMoreirense
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.14
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
71%
Scored inContext
71%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
10.14
ShotsContext
9.43
3.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
35%
On target shareContext
33%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
54%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.43
Shots allowedContext
13.43
4.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.57
4.29
BlocksContext
3.67
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.57
67%
Save rateContext
78%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
276
PassesContext
419
199
Accurate passesContext
352
72%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.84
15.14
FoulsContext
14.14
10.57
Fouls sufferedContext
14.43
2.71
Yellow cardsContext
3.14
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.59
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.90
ShotsContext
9.80
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
33%
On target shareContext
42%
6.88
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
54%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.88
12.60
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.80
BlocksContext
3.67
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
59%
Save rateContext
73%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
288
PassesContext
384
215
Accurate passesContext
320
75%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.85
14.60
FoulsContext
14.10
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
15.10
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
3.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nacional
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,479 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Moreirense
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,230 km608 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nacional |
Moreirense |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,230 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,479 km | 608 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 22 | 23.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
5José Gomes
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
16Alan Nuñez
6Matheus Dias
28Liziero
11Paulinho Bóia
15C. Labidi
99Pablo Ruan
9J. Ramírez
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
22Caio Secco(G)
27Kiko
26Maracás
44Marcelo
76Dinis Pinto
15Vasco Sousa
8M. Stjepanović
11Alan
10Kiko Bondoso
99Maranhão
2Diogo Travassos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nacional+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nacional · Home
0.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.67
Moreirense · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Nacional | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Sporting CP | L 1–4 H | L 0–3 A |
| Rio Ave | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Nacional wins1 draws0 Moreirense wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 27 Apr 2025Moreirense1–1Nacional
- 14 Dec 2024Nacional1–0Moreirense
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nacional | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 2.57 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 57% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Nacional | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 2.57 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 57% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nacional | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.14 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.86 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.50 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.14 | 3.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 5.43 | 5.00 | 5.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 6/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 86% 6/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Nacional | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 9.22 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 5.60 | 5.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Helder Malheiro Portugal · 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.50league 5.08
Red cards0.33league 0.23
Cards 5+67%league 63%
Fouls29.0league 27.9
Penalties0.44league 0.41
Home wins50%league 34%
Nacional2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L6 Apr 25H · Estrela0–11
- L20 Sep 24H · SC Braga0–33
Moreirense4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 4.5
Pens for · against2 · 2
- W10 Aug 25H · Alverca2–13
- D4 Jan 25H · AVS1–13
- D11 Dec 23A · GIL Vicente1–13
- L14 Aug 23H · FC Porto1–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nacional7 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Moreirense7 games · scored 10 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
2
4
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
