Nacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Nacional had 8 days of rest, Rio Ave 7.8 and had to travel 1,205 km.
Away travel1,205 kmRest days8 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Nacional40%
Draw28%
Rio Ave32%
Nacional40%
Draw27%
Rio Ave32%
Nacional40%
Draw28%
Rio Ave32%
Nacional33%
Draw28%
Rio Ave39%
Nacional41%
Draw27%
Rio Ave33%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalVasilica Iancu
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 5
Team strength
Nacional
Rio Ave
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
15
AttackIn forecast
18
13
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NacionalRio Ave
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.72
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
78%
Scored inContext
67%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
11.72
ShotsContext
8.89
3.94
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.13
34%
On target shareContext
41%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
5.87
59%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.40
15.00
Shots allowedContext
16.94
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.67
4.50
BlocksContext
4.67
2.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.83
63%
Save rateContext
68%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
302
PassesContext
364
226
Accurate passesContext
301
75%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.85
14.44
FoulsContext
13.11
11.72
Fouls sufferedContext
14.72
2.61
Yellow cardsContext
2.44
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
80%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.30
ShotsContext
8.00
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
32%
On target shareContext
39%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
5.57
63%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.29
16.60
Shots allowedContext
16.80
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.90
BlocksContext
5.10
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
64%
Save rateContext
62%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
315
PassesContext
368
239
Accurate passesContext
307
76%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.80
14.20
FoulsContext
12.80
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
14.70
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nacional
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,454 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Rio Ave
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,205 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nacional |
Rio Ave |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 7.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,205 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,454 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
5José Gomes
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
16Alan Nuñez
28Liziero
6Matheus Dias
26Joel Silva
11Paulinho Bóia
9J. Ramírez
27Gabriel Veron
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
22K. Chamorro(G)
6N. Abbey
32J. Brabec
23F. Petrasso
17M. Vrousai
10B. Aguilera
44T. Nikitscher
20João Tomé
18D. Špikić
11André Luiz
9Clayton
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nacional+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nacional · Home
0.88points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-5
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.13
Rio Ave · Away
1.22points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.78
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Nacional | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Santa Clara | D 3–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Guimaraes | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| AVS | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Tondela | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Alverca | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Estrela | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Estoril | D 1–1 A | L 0–4 H |
| Moreirense | W 3–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| SC Braga | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Arouca | L 1–2 H | D 3–3 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Sporting CP | L 1–4 H | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 16 of 51 · 0.94 per game | 19 of 51 · 1.12 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Nacional wins2 draws1 Rio Ave wins
Goals per game1.67 – 2.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 17 Aug 2025Rio Ave1–1Nacional
- 10 May 2025Nacional3–3Rio Ave
- 29 Dec 2024Rio Ave2–1Nacional
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nacional | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.72 | |
| Match goals | 2.78 | 2.94 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 61% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 61% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Nacional | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nacional | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.94 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.17 | 7.18 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 11.06 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 12/18 | 82% 14/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 61% 11/18 | 71% 12/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 9/18 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.89 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 5.56 | 5.34 | 5.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 72% 13/18 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 72% 13/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Nacional | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.60 | 6.67 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 11.00 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 5.30 | 5.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Vasilica Iancu Portugal · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.40league 5.02
Red cards0.40league 0.30
Cards 5+20%league 60%
Fouls25.0league 27.3
Penalties0.20league 0.46
Home wins40%league 38%
Nacional1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L19 Apr 25H · GIL Vicente0–31
Rio Ave1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W4 Jan 26H · Casa Pia3–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nacional18 games · scored 22 · conceded 28
2
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
6
31-45
4
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
9
76-90
Rio Ave18 games · scored 22 · conceded 31
2
2
0-15
4
5
16-30
3
6
31-45
3
5
46-60
5
6
61-75
5
7
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
