Nacional
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Nacional40.0%fair odds 2.50
Draw27.8%fair odds 3.60
Rio Ave32.3%fair odds 3.10
Expected goals1.37 – 1.21total 2.58
Likeliest score1–113.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Rio Ave
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Nacional ↓ · Rio Ave → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Nacional goals, columns Rio Ave goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%7.55
- 1–09.8%10.24
- 2–18.6%11.61
- 0–18.5%11.75
- 0–08.3%12.08
- 1–27.6%13.20
- 2–07.1%14.00
- 0–25.5%18.08
- 2–25.2%19.27
- 3–13.9%25.44
Winning margin
6.9%
Nacional by 3+
fair 14.49
12.0%
Nacional by 2
fair 8.35
21.1%
Nacional by 1
fair 4.74
27.8%
Draw
fair 3.60
18.5%
Rio Ave by 1
fair 5.41
9.3%
Rio Ave by 2
fair 10.78
4.5%
Rio Ave by 3+
fair 22.26
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Nacional goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Rio Ave goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional win | 40.0% | 40.8% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 27.8% | 26.6% | +1.2 pp |
| Rio Ave win | 32.3% | 32.7% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.5% | 52.5% | -4.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.9% | 56.7% | -3.8 pp |
| Expected goals Nacional | 1.37 | 1.48 | -0.11 |
| Expected goals Rio Ave | 1.21 | 1.30 | -0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Nacional win40.0%2.50
- Draw27.8%3.60
- Rio Ave win32.3%3.10
- Double chance Nacional or draw67.7%1.48
- Double chance Nacional or Rio Ave72.2%1.38
- Double chance Rio Ave or draw60.0%1.67
- Draw no bet Nacional55.3%1.81
- Draw no bet Rio Ave44.7%2.24
Goals
- Over 0.591.7%1.09
- Over 1.573.4%1.36
- Over 2.547.5%2.10
- Over 3.525.9%3.87
- Over 4.511.9%8.39
- Under 1.526.6%3.77
- Under 2.552.5%1.91
- Under 3.574.1%1.35
Both teams to score
- Yes52.9%1.89
- No47.1%2.12
- Yes and over 2.539.7%2.52
- Nacional win and yes18.3%5.46
- Draw and yes19.5%5.13
- Rio Ave win and yes15.1%6.61
Team goals
- Nacional over 0.574.6%1.34
- Nacional over 1.539.8%2.51
- Nacional over 2.515.9%6.28
- Rio Ave over 0.570.0%1.43
- Rio Ave over 1.533.9%2.95
- Rio Ave over 2.512.2%8.21
- Nacional clean sheet30.0%3.34
- Rio Ave clean sheet25.4%3.93
- Nacional win to nil21.7%4.61
- Rio Ave win to nil17.1%5.84
Handicap
- Nacional −1.518.9%5.30
- Nacional −2.56.9%14.49
- Rio Ave +1.581.1%1.23
- Rio Ave +2.593.1%1.07
- Rio Ave −1.513.8%7.26
- Nacional +1.586.2%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored166
Favourite won60.2%
Avg chance given to result44.1%
1X2 Brier0.536
Over 2.5 called right58.4%
BTTS called right55.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 30 | 37.6% | 43.3% |
| 40–50% | 57 | 44.9% | 50.9% |
| 50–60% | 35 | 54.3% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 21 | 65.5% | 85.7% |
| 70–80% | 18 | 75.3% | 77.8% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 84.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 137 of 166 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5317 | 0.5165 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.3% | 46.1% |
| Favourite won | 61.3% | 61.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 137 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Estoril 4–2 Guimaraes39·27·33
- ✓Arouca 1–2 Sporting CP11·19·70
- ✓Moreirense 1–0 Santa Clara50·26·24
- ✗Casa Pia 3–3 AVS56·25·19
- ✓Estrela 0–5 Estoril35·28·36
- ✓Guimaraes 0–1 FC Porto23·25·52
- ✓Tondela 0–1 SC Braga17·23·60
- ✓Santa Clara 0–1 Famalicao35·28·37
- ✓Rio Ave 0–2 Benfica14·22·64
- ✓AVS 0–1 Arouca31·28·41
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 166 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.