Nacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nacional were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Nacional had 8.8 days of rest, Santa Clara 6.9 and had to travel 964 km.
Away travel964 kmRest days8.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Nacional41%
Draw28%
Santa Clara30%
Nacional42%
Draw27%
Santa Clara31%
Nacional41%
Draw28%
Santa Clara30%
Nacional34%
Draw29%
Santa Clara37%
Nacional42%
Draw27%
Santa Clara31%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalFabio Jose Costa Verissimo
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 11
Team strength
Nacional
Santa Clara
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
15
AttackIn forecast
29
13
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSanta Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NacionalSanta Clara
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.69
1.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
75%
Scored inContext
56%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
11.56
ShotsContext
10.81
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
34%
On target shareContext
31%
7.57
Shots in the boxContext
6.31
59%
Box shareContext
57%
10%
ConversionContext
6%
2.31
OffsidesContext
2.25
14.56
Shots allowedContext
9.31
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.87
4.50
BlocksContext
2.09
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
64%
Save rateContext
76%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
299
PassesContext
365
223
Accurate passesContext
294
75%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.77
14.25
FoulsContext
14.19
12.06
Fouls sufferedContext
15.13
2.56
Yellow cardsContext
2.94
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
80%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.70
ShotsContext
10.40
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
33%
On target shareContext
32%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
60%
Box shareContext
53%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.88
14.60
Shots allowedContext
9.80
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
4.50
BlocksContext
2.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
63%
Save rateContext
74%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
326
PassesContext
365
248
Accurate passesContext
291
76%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.80
FoulsContext
14.40
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
3.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nacional
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,474 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Santa Clara
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel964 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nacional |
Santa Clara |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 Jan | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 964 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,474 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
5José Gomes
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
2João Aurélio
11Paulinho Bóia
28Liziero
6Matheus Dias
99Pablo Ruan
9J. Ramírez
8Miguel Baeza
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Gabriel Batista(G)
94Henrique Silva
13Luís Rocha
23Sidney Lima
65José Tavares
64Paulo Victor
77Gustavo Klismahn
35Serginho
42Lucas Soares
10Gabriel Silva
70Vinícius Lopes
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nacional+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nacional · Home
0.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-5
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 2.00
Santa Clara · Away
0.71points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-4
- Scored
- 0.57
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Nacional | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| AVS | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Tondela | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Alverca | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Benfica | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Estrela | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Estoril | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Moreirense | W 3–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| SC Braga | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Arouca | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Sporting CP | L 1–4 H | L 1–2 H |
| Rio Ave | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 16 of 48 · 1.00 per game | 16 of 48 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Nacional wins0 draws1 Santa Clara wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 30 Mar 2025Santa Clara1–0Nacional
- 4 Nov 2024Nacional2–0Santa Clara
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nacional | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 0.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 1.69 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 31% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 38% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 44% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Nacional | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 1.70 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nacional | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.00 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 10/16 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 9/16 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 8/16 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.88 | 3.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 3.19 | |
| Match total | 5.63 | 6.32 | 5.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 12/16 | 88% 14/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 12/16 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Nacional | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.10 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.11 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 3.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 6.50 | 5.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo Portugal · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 5.07
Red cards0.18league 0.28
Cards 5+73%league 60%
Fouls26.3league 27.4
Penalties0.36league 0.44
Home wins55%league 38%
Nacional1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D9 Nov 25A · Estrela1–14
Santa ClaraNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nacional16 games · scored 18 · conceded 23
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
6
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
8
76-90
Santa Clara16 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
4
3
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
