Nacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nacional were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Nacional had 8 days of rest, Tondela 7.9 and had to travel 1,175 km.
Away travel1,175 kmRest days8 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Nacional46%
Draw28%
Tondela26%
Nacional47%
Draw26%
Tondela26%
Nacional46%
Draw28%
Tondela26%
Nacional39%
Draw29%
Tondela32%
Nacional47%
Draw26%
Tondela26%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalRicardo Baixinho
- Cards per match 7.1
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 32
Team strength
Nacional
Tondela
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
15
AttackIn forecast
16
13
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NacionalTondela
0.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.54
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.69
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.53
69%
Scored inContext
31%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
11.08
ShotsContext
10.92
3.69
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.62
33%
On target shareContext
33%
7.18
Shots in the boxContext
6.31
56%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
5%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.92
14.46
Shots allowedContext
13.69
4.31
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.69
4.38
BlocksContext
3.58
2.92
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.15
65%
Save rateContext
73%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
288
PassesContext
312
213
Accurate passesContext
247
74%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.71
14.54
FoulsContext
14.08
11.46
Fouls sufferedContext
12.23
2.62
Yellow cardsContext
2.62
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.52
70%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.40
ShotsContext
11.30
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
33%
On target shareContext
33%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
53%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
6%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.89
13.10
Shots allowedContext
13.80
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.80
BlocksContext
3.80
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
67%
Save rateContext
77%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
306
PassesContext
315
227
Accurate passesContext
247
74%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.40
FoulsContext
14.50
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nacional
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,984 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Tondela
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,175 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nacional |
Tondela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,175 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,984 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
24Lenny Vallier
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
88Deivison
28Liziero
6Matheus Dias
8Miguel Baeza
11Paulinho Bóia
9J. Ramírez
7Witi
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
60N. Maviram
20Brayan Medina
4Christian Marques
48Tiago Manso
15S. Sithole
32Juan Rodríguez
17Ivan Cavaleiro
79Hugo Félix
7Pedro Henryque
29J. Siebatcheu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nacional+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Tondela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nacional · Home
0.50points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.17
Tondela · Away
1.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 1.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Nacional | Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Estrela | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Estoril | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| SC Braga | W 1–0 A | L 0–3 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Sporting CP | L 1–4 H | L 0–3 H |
| Rio Ave | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 6 of 30 · 0.60 per game | 5 of 30 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Nacional | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.92 | 0.54 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.69 | |
| Match goals | 2.31 | 2.23 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 62% | |
| Over 2.5 | 31% | 54% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 23% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 69% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Nacional | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.20 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nacional | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.31 | 3.31 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.77 | 5.62 | |
| Match total | 10.08 | 8.93 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 8/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 7/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 6/13 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.92 | 2.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.69 | 2.15 | |
| Match total | 5.61 | 4.84 | 5.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 85% 11/13 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 85% 11/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Nacional | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 8.60 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 5.40 | 5.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo Baixinho Portugal · 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.63league 5.15
Red cards0.50league 0.29
Cards 5+81%league 63%
Fouls31.3league 27.5
Penalties0.25league 0.45
Home wins41%league 36%
NacionalNo previous matches with this referee.
TondelaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nacional13 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
7
76-90
Tondela13 games · scored 7 · conceded 22
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
7
31-45
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
6
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Tondela10 games · scored 7 · conceded 15
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
