Newcastle
Attack−4%
Defense risk+18%
Our take
Aston Villa were slight favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 73). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Aston Villa. Aston Villa were without A. Onana. Newcastle had 4.9 days of rest, Aston Villa 2.9 and had to travel 278 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel278 kmRest days4.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Newcastle33%
Draw23%
Aston Villa44%
Newcastle34%
Draw27%
Aston Villa38%
Newcastle33%
Draw23%
Aston Villa45%
Newcastle26%
Draw21%
Aston Villa53%
Newcastle33%
Draw23%
Aston Villa44%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 70%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)
10°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 8 km/h
- Humidity 64%
RefereeJarred Gillett
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 115
Team strength
Newcastle
Aston Villa
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
83
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
61
AttackIn forecast
83
61
DefenceIn forecast
78
61
Form indexContext
84
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAston Villa
Attack+12%
Defense risk−5%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
NewcastleAston Villa
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
100%
Scored inContext
50%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
11.67
ShotsContext
11.33
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.75
34%
On target shareContext
28%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
60%
Box shareContext
62%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.75
17.83
Shots allowedContext
15.83
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
7.50
BlocksContext
2.80
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
62%
Save rateContext
70%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
435
PassesContext
406
364
Accurate passesContext
338
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.66
11.83
FoulsContext
10.67
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
12.83
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
90%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.10
ShotsContext
13.80
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.25
37%
On target shareContext
36%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
62%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.63
17.30
Shots allowedContext
14.40
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
6.40
BlocksContext
3.63
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
69%
Save rateContext
74%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
435
PassesContext
396
363
Accurate passesContext
336
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.60
FoulsContext
10.90
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Newcastle
WDLWL
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km571 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 7 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
Aston Villa
WLWDW
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel278 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 84 · 10 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Newcastle |
Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Oct | 2.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 14 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 278 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 571 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Newcastle
Confirmed XI
21L. Horníček(G)
3L. Hall
4S. Botman
12M. Thiaw
67L. Miley
7Joelinton
6Nico González
11H. Barnes
28J. Willock
20M. Fernandez-Pardo
9Y. Wissa
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
1Z. Suzuki(G)
29A. Wan-Bissaka
5T. Mings
3V. Lindelöf
2M. Cash
35João Gomes
8B. Kamara
10E. Buendía
44J. Manzambi
47Alysson Edward
11N. Jackson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Newcastle
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −13.0% · Defence line −4.2% of weighted minutes
- MID J. Ramsey Rotation 6.66 Att −4.0% Def −1.8%
- ATT A. Elanga Rotation 6.66 Att −6.3%
- DEF T. Livramento Rotation 6.56 Def −2.4%
- ATT B. Toure Rotation 6.74 Att −2.6%
Aston Villa
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −14.3% · Defence line −13.7% of weighted minutes
- MID A. Onana Starter 7.05 Att −7.5% Def −4.9%
- DEF I. Maatsen Rotation 6.58 Def −4.9%
- MID R. Barkley Rotation 6.83 Att −2.0% Def −1.3%
- ATT I. Mbaye Rotation 6.87 Att −3.9%
- DEF M. Ruggeri Rotation 6.80 Def −2.1%
- MID George Hemmings Rotation 6.42 Att −0.8% Def −0.5%
Total impact vs full squads
- Newcastle+0.6 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Aston Villa-0.6 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Newcastle · Home
1.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Aston Villa · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Newcastle | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Hull City | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–0 A | W 3–2 A |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
5 Newcastle wins1 draws4 Aston Villa wins
Goals per game1.70 – 1.30
Over 2.560%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets40% · 40%
- 25 Jan 2026Newcastle0–2Aston Villa
- 16 Aug 2025Aston Villa0–0Newcastle
- 19 Apr 2025Aston Villa4–1Newcastle
- 26 Dec 2024Newcastle3–0Aston Villa
- 30 Jan 2024Aston Villa1–3Newcastle
- 12 Aug 2023Newcastle5–1Aston Villa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Newcastle | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.83 | 2.83 | 3.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Newcastle | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Newcastle | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 2.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 7.16 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 4.34 | 4.84 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Newcastle | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 9.00 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.20 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jarred Gillett 115 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.73league 3.91
Red cards0.10league 0.19
Cards 5+37%league 44%
Fouls20.3league 23.0
Penalties0.22league 0.17
Home wins37%league 39%
Newcastle13 with this referee
Record5-5-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.3
Pens for · against3 · 0
- W17 May 26H · West Ham3–11
- L25 Jan 26H · Aston Villa0–21
- L28 Sep 25H · Arsenal1–22
- L19 Apr 25A · Aston Villa1–43
- W23 Feb 25H · Nottingham Forest4–31
Aston Villa14 with this referee
Record6-3-5
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L31 Aug 26H · Arsenal0–13
- L4 Mar 26H · Chelsea1–43
- W25 Jan 26A · Newcastle2–02
- W19 Apr 25H · Newcastle4–11
- W8 Mar 25A · Brentford1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Newcastle6 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Aston Villa5 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 17 · conceded 18
5
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Aston Villa9 games · scored 20 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
6
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
