Newcastle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Newcastle were clear favourites.
Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 56). Newcastle had 3.8 days of rest, Burnley 2.8 and had to travel 136 km.
Away travel136 kmRest days3.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d3 · 2
Newcastle61%
Draw22%
Burnley17%
Newcastle60%
Draw23%
Burnley17%
Newcastle61%
Draw22%
Burnley17%
Newcastle53%
Draw24%
Burnley23%
Newcastle60%
Draw23%
Burnley18%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)
No weather data yet
RefereeStuart Attwell
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 127
Team strength
Newcastle
Burnley
79
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
61
AttackIn forecast
27
61
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBurnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NewcastleBurnley
1.36
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.07
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.10
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
79%
Scored inContext
64%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
12.29
ShotsContext
8.21
4.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.58
35%
On target shareContext
37%
7.71
Shots in the boxContext
4.86
61%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.86
Shots allowedContext
16.00
4.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.83
BlocksContext
4.69
3.15
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.71
73%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
431
PassesContext
373
354
Accurate passesContext
291
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.66
10.85
FoulsContext
9.86
11.79
Fouls sufferedContext
9.43
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
100%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.50
ShotsContext
8.50
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
41%
On target shareContext
40%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.10
68%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.60
Shots allowedContext
14.60
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.80
BlocksContext
4.00
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
73%
Save rateContext
67%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
448
PassesContext
404
376
Accurate passesContext
323
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.66
10.13
FoulsContext
10.30
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Newcastle
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km390 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Burnley
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel136 km576 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Newcastle |
Burnley |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.8Premier League 2025-2026, 2 Dec | 2.8Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 136 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 390 km | 576 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 4 | 2 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Newcastle
Confirmed XI
32A. Ramsdale(G)
33D. Burn
12M. Thiaw
5F. Schär
21V. Livramento
41J. Ramsey
39Bruno Guimarães
28J. Willock
10A. Gordon
27N. Woltemade
20A. Elanga
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
23Lucas Pires
5M. Estève
18H. Ekdal
2K. Walker
16Florentino
24J. Cullen
8L. Ugochukwu
7J. Bruun Larsen
27A. Broja
9L. Foster
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Newcastle
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Burnley
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Newcastle-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Burnley+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Newcastle · Home
1.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-2
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 1.29
Burnley · Away
0.43points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-6
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Newcastle | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | D 2–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Manchester City | W 2–1 H | L 1–5 A |
| Brentford | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| West Ham | L 1–3 A | L 2–3 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Arsenal | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Wolves | W 1–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Leeds | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Liverpool | L 2–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| Aston Villa | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 12 of 30 · 1.20 per game | 7 of 30 · 0.70 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
6 Newcastle wins0 draws0 Burnley wins
Goals per game2.33 – 0.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 4 May 2024Burnley1–4Newcastle
- 30 Sep 2023Newcastle2–0Burnley
- 22 May 2022Burnley1–2Newcastle
- 4 Dec 2021Newcastle1–0Burnley
- 11 Apr 2021Burnley1–2Newcastle
- 3 Oct 2020Newcastle3–1Burnley
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Newcastle | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.36 | 1.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.64 | 3.07 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 36% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Newcastle | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.20 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Newcastle | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.93 | 2.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.71 | 6.36 | |
| Match total | 11.64 | 9.22 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 10/14 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 8/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 7/14 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.14 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.21 | |
| Match total | 3.14 | 2.78 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 36% 5/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 3/14 | 14% 2/14 | |
| Newcastle | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 2.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.30 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 12.90 | 8.90 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.80 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stuart Attwell 127 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.94league 3.64
Red cards0.13league 0.11
Cards 5+43%league 39%
Fouls21.0league 21.9
Penalties0.19league 0.19
Home wins50%league 49%
Newcastle14 with this referee
Record8-1-5
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L9 Nov 25A · Brentford1–33
- L18 Jan 25H · Bournemouth1–41
- W21 Dec 24A · Ipswich4–00
- W4 Nov 23H · Arsenal1–05
- W24 Sep 23A · Sheffield Utd8–00
Burnley3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L30 Dec 23A · Aston Villa2–33
- L7 Oct 23H · Chelsea1–42
- W21 Apr 22H · Southampton2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Newcastle14 games · scored 19 · conceded 18
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
9
76-90
Burnley14 games · scored 15 · conceded 28
1
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
10
76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 19 · conceded 15
4
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 11 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
