Newcastle vs Tottenham – 2 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 14 Tue, Dec 2 · 20:15 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle 14th · 18 pts · 13 played WLLWW

2–2Full time

Tottenham 13th · 18 pts · 13 played WLDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Newcastle were slight favourites.

Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 69). Newcastle had 3.1 days of rest, Tottenham 3 and had to travel 398 km.

Away travel398 kmRest days3.1 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 2

Newcastle53%

Draw24%

Tottenham23%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.14

Newcastle52%

Draw25%

Tottenham23%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.05

Newcastle53%

Draw24%

Tottenham23%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.11

Newcastle45%

Draw26%

Tottenham29%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.28

Newcastle52%

Draw25%

Tottenham23%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.07

Over 2.5 57% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

No weather data yet

RefereeThomas Bramall

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 93

Team strength

Newcastle

Tottenham

80 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

61 AttackIn forecast 56

61 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Newcastle

Tottenham

1.31 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.62

1.23 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.23

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 0.92

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.70

77% Scored inContext 85%

38% Clean sheetsContext 31%

11.77 ShotsContext 9.54

4.08 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.23

35% On target shareContext 34%

7.31 Shots in the boxContext 7.08

60% Box shareContext 69%

11% ConversionContext 17%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.25

11.08 Shots allowedContext 11.69

4.31 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.23

3.73 BlocksContext 2.42

3.15 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.55

73% Save rateContext 77%

50% PossessionIn forecast 54%

430 PassesContext 432

353 Accurate passesContext 361

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.87

11.33 FoulsContext 11.77

11.77 Fouls sufferedContext 9.31

1.08 Yellow cardsContext 2.46

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.71 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.67

100% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.40 ShotsContext 9.20

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

43% On target shareContext 35%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 6.67

68% Box shareContext 66%

14% ConversionContext 19%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.30 Shots allowedContext 12.90

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.67 BlocksContext 3.10

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88

76% Save rateContext 71%

51% PossessionIn forecast 49%

450 PassesContext 398

377 Accurate passesContext 327

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.82

11.50 FoulsContext 11.67

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km390 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Tottenham

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel398 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load14%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Newcastle	Tottenham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1Premier League 2025-2026, 29 Nov	3Premier League 2025-2026, 29 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	398 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	390 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.8	3.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

32A. Ramsdale(G)

3L. Hall 33D. Burn 12M. Thiaw 21V. Livramento

7Joelinton 8S. Tonali 67L. Miley

11H. Barnes 27N. Woltemade 23J. Murphy

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1G. Vicario(G)

13I. Udogie 4K. Danso 17C. Romero 23Pedro Porro

29P. Sarr 30R. Bentancur

22B. Johnson 15L. Bergvall 20M. Kudus

39R. Kolo Muani

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Newcastle Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Tottenham Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Newcastle-0.5 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Tottenham+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home 2.00points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 4-0-2
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 1.17

Tottenham · Away 2.17points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 4-1-1
Scored: 2.17
Conceded: 1.17

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

Opponent	Newcastle	Tottenham
Everton	W 4–1 A	W 3–0 A
Manchester City	W 2–1 H	W 2–0 A
West Ham	L 1–3 A	W 3–0 A
Fulham	W 2–1 H	L 1–2 H
Brighton	L 1–2 A	D 2–2 A
Arsenal	L 1–2 H	L 1–4 A
Bournemouth	D 0–0 A	L 0–1 H
Wolves	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 H
Leeds	D 0–0 A	W 2–1 A
Aston Villa	D 0–0 A	L 1–2 H
Points	15 of 30 · 1.50 per game	14 of 30 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

5 Newcastle wins2 draws3 Tottenham wins

Goals per game2.30 – 1.90 Over 2.590% Both scored90% Clean sheets10% · 0%

4 Jan 2025Tottenham1–2Newcastle
1 Sep 2024Newcastle2–1Tottenham
13 Apr 2024Newcastle4–0Tottenham
10 Dec 2023Tottenham4–1Newcastle
23 Apr 2023Newcastle6–1Tottenham
23 Oct 2022Tottenham1–2Newcastle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Newcastle	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.31	1.62
Conceded per game	1.23	1.23
Match goals	2.54	2.85	2.96
Over 1.5	69%	85%
Over 2.5	62%	69%	57%
Over 3.5	31%	23%
Both teams scored	62%	54%	58%
Clean sheets	38%	31%
Failed to score	23%	15%
Games	13	13

	Newcastle	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.60
Conceded per game	1.30	1.50
Match goals	2.80	3.10	2.96
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	80%	57%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	58%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Newcastle	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	5.54	6.33
Corners conceded	5.54	4.83
Match total	11.08	11.16	9.86
Over 8.5	69% 9/13	75% 9/12
Over 9.5	54% 7/13	67% 8/12
Over 10.5	46% 6/13	58% 7/12
Cards
Cards	1.23	2.46
Opponent cards	1.92	1.46
Match total	3.15	3.92	3.84
Over 3.5	38% 5/13	62% 8/13
Over 4.5	23% 3/13	54% 7/13

	Newcastle	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	4.60
Corners conceded	6.60	4.90
Match total	11.90	9.50	9.86
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.10	2.40
Opponent cards	2.00	1.40
Match total	3.10	3.80	3.84
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Bramall 93 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.63league 3.72

Red cards0.15league 0.12

Cards 5+40%league 42%

Fouls22.1league 22.1

Penalties0.16league 0.20

Home wins48%league 50%

Newcastle4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.8 Pens for · against1 · 1

W14 Dec 24H · Leicester4–03
L24 Apr 24A · Crystal Palace0–23
D3 Feb 24H · Luton4–42
W30 Sep 23H · Burnley2–01

Tottenham2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W4 Oct 25A · Leeds2–13
L27 Apr 25A · Liverpool1–51

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.