Newcastle vs West Ham – 17 May 2026

Premier League Gameweek 37 Sun, May 17 · 17:30 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle 14th · 46 pts · 36 played LLLWD

3–1Full time

West Ham 18th · 36 pts · 36 played WDWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Newcastle were slight favourites.

Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 60). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for West Ham. Newcastle had 7.1 days of rest, West Ham 7 and had to travel 398 km.

Away travel398 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Newcastle56%

Draw22%

West Ham22%

Expected goals 2.08 – 1.26

Newcastle55%

Draw24%

West Ham20%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.00

Newcastle57%

Draw22%

West Ham22%

Expected goals 2.11 – 1.24

Newcastle47%

Draw24%

West Ham29%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.41

Newcastle54%

Draw23%

West Ham23%

Expected goals 1.98 – 1.22

Over 2.5 65% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

No weather data yet

RefereeJarred Gillett

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 108

Team strength

Newcastle

West Ham

76 L90 StrengthIn forecast 60

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 64

61 AttackIn forecast 68

61 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

West Ham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Newcastle

West Ham

1.39 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

1.44 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.72

1.53 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

78% Scored inContext 64%

22% Clean sheetsContext 17%

13.06 ShotsContext 10.36

4.64 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.79

36% On target shareContext 34%

8.39 Shots in the boxContext 7.53

63% Box shareContext 70%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.13

12.06 Shots allowedContext 14.94

4.28 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.14

3.85 BlocksContext 4.53

2.94 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.47

68% Save rateContext 68%

52% PossessionIn forecast 42%

447 PassesContext 368

371 Accurate passesContext 290

83% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.81

10.26 FoulsContext 11.08

12.31 Fouls sufferedContext 10.64

1.72 Yellow cardsContext 1.81

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 36 and 36 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.38

1.90 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

-0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.38

90% Scored inContext 50%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.70 ShotsContext 10.90

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30

37% On target shareContext 30%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.11

66% Box shareContext 76%

11% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.63

14.30 Shots allowedContext 15.10

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

4.40 BlocksContext 4.60

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

65% Save rateContext 68%

48% PossessionIn forecast 43%

390 PassesContext 350

311 Accurate passesContext 270

80% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.96

11.40 FoulsContext 11.20

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km453 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

West Ham

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel398 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Newcastle	West Ham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 10 May	7Premier League 2025-2026, 10 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	398 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	453 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1N. Pope(G)

3L. Hall 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 2K. Trippier

8S. Tonali 39Bruno Guimarães

41J. Ramsey 27N. Woltemade 11H. Barnes

18W. Osula

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

West Ham Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1M. Hermansen(G)

25J. Todibo 15K. Mavropanos 4A. Disasi

12E. Diouf 18Mateus Fernandes 28T. Souček 29A. Wan-Bissaka

7C. Summerville 20J. Bowen

9C. Wilson

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Newcastle Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

West Ham Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Newcastle-1.0 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
West Ham+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home 1.61points per game · 18 home games

W-D-L: 9-2-7
Scored: 1.83
Conceded: 1.61

West Ham · Away 0.94points per game · 18 away games

W-D-L: 4-5-9
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.78

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Newcastle	West Ham
Nottingham Forest	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H	L 1–2 HW 3–0 A
Brighton	W 3–1 HL 1–2 A	D 2–2 HD 1–1 A
Arsenal	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H	L 0–1 HL 0–2 A
Bournemouth	L 1–2 HD 0–0 A	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A
Crystal Palace	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H	D 0–0 AL 1–2 H
Sunderland	L 1–2 HL 0–1 A	W 3–1 HL 0–3 A
Chelsea	W 1–0 AD 2–2 H	L 2–3 AL 1–5 H
Manchester United	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A	D 1–1 HD 1–1 A
Everton	L 2–3 HW 4–1 A	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
Manchester City	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 HL 0–3 A
Tottenham	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H	W 2–1 AL 0–3 H
Brentford	L 2–3 HL 1–3 A	L 0–3 AL 0–2 H
Liverpool	L 1–4 AL 2–3 H	L 2–5 AL 0–2 H
Aston Villa	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A	L 0–2 AL 2–3 H
Wolves	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	W 4–0 HL 0–3 A
Leeds	W 4–3 HD 0–0 A	L 1–2 A
Burnley	W 3–1 AW 2–1 H	W 2–0 AW 3–2 H
Fulham	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 AL 0–1 H
Points	46 of 105 · 1.31 per game	33 of 105 · 0.94 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

4 Newcastle wins3 draws3 West Ham wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.90 Over 2.560% Both scored80% Clean sheets10% · 10%

2 Nov 2025West Ham3–1Newcastle
10 Mar 2025West Ham0–1Newcastle
25 Nov 2024Newcastle0–2West Ham
30 Mar 2024Newcastle4–3West Ham
8 Oct 2023West Ham2–2Newcastle
5 Apr 2023West Ham1–5Newcastle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Newcastle	West Ham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.39	1.17
Conceded per game	1.44	1.72
Match goals	2.83	2.89	3.34
Over 1.5	75%	86%
Over 2.5	64%	58%	65%
Over 3.5	33%	28%
Both teams scored	67%	53%	63%
Clean sheets	22%	17%
Failed to score	22%	36%
Games	36	36

	Newcastle	West Ham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.00
Conceded per game	1.50	1.30
Match goals	2.80	2.30	3.34
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	65%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	30%	63%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	10%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Newcastle	West Ham	League
Corners
Corners won	5.97	5.14
Corners conceded	5.00	6.06
Match total	10.97	11.20	10.09
Over 8.5	75% 27/36	71% 25/35
Over 9.5	58% 21/36	66% 23/35
Over 10.5	50% 18/36	60% 21/35
Cards
Cards	1.81	1.89
Opponent cards	2.44	1.97
Match total	4.25	3.86	3.90
Over 3.5	61% 22/36	56% 20/36
Over 4.5	39% 14/36	31% 11/36

	Newcastle	West Ham	League
Corners
Corners won	3.30	5.00
Corners conceded	5.10	5.70
Match total	8.40	10.70	10.09
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.20
Opponent cards	2.40	2.00
Match total	4.60	4.20	3.90
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jarred Gillett 108 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 3.78

Red cards0.09league 0.12

Cards 5+37%league 38%

Fouls20.1league 21.6

Penalties0.23league 0.21

Home wins37%league 42%

Newcastle12 with this referee

Record4-5-3 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3 Pens for · against3 · 0

L25 Jan 26H · Aston Villa0–21
L28 Sep 25H · Arsenal1–22
L19 Apr 25A · Aston Villa1–43
W23 Feb 25H · Nottingham Forest4–31
D28 Sep 24H · Manchester City1–14

West Ham9 with this referee

Record6-1-2 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.4 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W10 Apr 26H · Wolves4–02
W17 Jan 26A · Tottenham2–13
L13 Sep 25H · Tottenham0–31
W11 May 25A · Manchester United2–01
D17 Mar 24H · Aston Villa1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.