Nottingham Forest vs Brighton – 30 Nov 2025

Premier League Gameweek 13 Sun, Nov 30 · 14:05 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire

Nottingham Forest 16th · 12 pts · 12 played LLDWW

0–2Full time

Brighton 8th · 19 pts · 12 played WLWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 67). Absences weigh more on Nottingham Forest. Nottingham Forest had 2.8 days of rest, Brighton 8 and had to travel 244 km.

Away travel244 kmRest days2.8 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Nottingham Forest36%

Draw26%

Brighton38%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.48

Nottingham Forest37%

Draw27%

Brighton36%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.33

Nottingham Forest37%

Draw26%

Brighton37%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.42

Nottingham Forest29%

Draw25%

Brighton46%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.66

Nottingham Forest35%

Draw27%

Brighton38%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.38

Over 2.5 55% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Oliver

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 193

Team strength

Nottingham Forest

Brighton

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 76

70 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

68 AttackIn forecast 87

74 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nottingham Forest

Brighton

1.08 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.58

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.30 xGVia Att/Def 1.50

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

-0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.08

50% Scored inContext 83%

8% Clean sheetsContext 17%

12.17 ShotsContext 12.25

4.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.58

34% On target shareContext 37%

7.92 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

66% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 13%

1.88 OffsidesContext 2.67

13.83 Shots allowedContext 10.58

5.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

4.40 BlocksContext 2.18

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

65% Save rateContext 67%

50% PossessionIn forecast 50%

442 PassesContext 440

370 Accurate passesContext 366

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.86

11.25 FoulsContext 12.17

11.73 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.67

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.39

60% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.10 ShotsContext 12.40

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

37% On target shareContext 38%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

63% Box shareContext 62%

12% ConversionContext 15%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.14

11.70 Shots allowedContext 10.90

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

4.63 BlocksContext 2.44

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

61% Save rateContext 70%

50% PossessionIn forecast 49%

428 PassesContext 436

355 Accurate passesContext 361

83% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.91

12.40 FoulsContext 11.50

14.22 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nottingham Forest

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km264 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brighton

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel244 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nottingham Forest	Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov	8Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	244 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	264 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.2	3.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

26M. Sels(G)

3N. Williams 4Morato 31N. Milenković 37N. Savona

8E. Anderson 6I. Sangaré

16N. Domínguez 10M. Gibbs-White 14D. Ndoye

19Igor Jesus

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

24F. Kadıoğlu 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 27M. Wieffer

25D. Gómez 26Y. Ayari

29M. De Cuyper 10G. Rutter 11Y. Minteh

18D. Welbeck

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nottingham Forest Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brighton Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nottingham Forest-1.5 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Brighton+1.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Nottingham Forest · Home 1.17points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-3
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.83

Brighton · Away 0.83points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-3
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 7 this season

Opponent	Nottingham Forest	Brighton
Leeds	W 3–1 H	W 3–0 H
Manchester United	D 2–2 H	L 2–4 A
Bournemouth	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 A
Chelsea	L 0–3 H	W 3–1 A
Newcastle	L 0–2 A	W 2–1 H
Crystal Palace	D 1–1 A	D 0–0 A
Brentford	W 3–1 H	W 2–1 H
Points	8 of 21 · 1.14 per game	13 of 21 · 1.86 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Nottingham Forest wins2 draws2 Brighton wins

Goals per game2.33 – 1.17 Over 2.567% Both scored50% Clean sheets33% · 33%

1 Feb 2025Nottingham Forest7–0Brighton
22 Sep 2024Brighton2–2Nottingham Forest
10 Mar 2024Brighton1–0Nottingham Forest
25 Nov 2023Nottingham Forest2–3Brighton
26 Apr 2023Nottingham Forest3–1Brighton
18 Oct 2022Brighton0–0Nottingham Forest

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nottingham Forest	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.08	1.58
Conceded per game	1.67	1.33
Match goals	2.75	2.92	2.90
Over 1.5	92%	92%
Over 2.5	58%	67%	55%
Over 3.5	25%	25%
Both teams scored	42%	75%	59%
Clean sheets	8%	17%
Failed to score	50%	17%
Games	12	12

	Nottingham Forest	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.80
Conceded per game	1.30	1.30
Match goals	2.80	3.10	2.90
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	80%	55%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	80%	59%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	40%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nottingham Forest	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.17	5.25
Corners conceded	5.17	4.00
Match total	10.34	9.25	9.92
Over 8.5	83% 10/12	58% 7/12
Over 9.5	67% 8/12	58% 7/12
Over 10.5	42% 5/12	50% 6/12
Cards
Cards	1.67	2.67
Opponent cards	1.67	2.33
Match total	3.34	5.00	3.84
Over 3.5	42% 5/12	75% 9/12
Over 4.5	25% 3/12	58% 7/12

	Nottingham Forest	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.38	5.70
Corners conceded	6.13	4.30
Match total	11.51	10.00	9.92
Over 8.5	88% 7/8	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	75% 6/8	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.60
Opponent cards	1.70	2.10
Match total	3.70	4.70	3.84
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 193 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.61league 3.73

Red cards0.14league 0.11

Cards 5+34%league 42%

Fouls22.5league 22.0

Penalties0.27league 0.21

Home wins43%league 52%

Nottingham Forest10 with this referee

Record4-1-5 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.6 Pens for · against2 · 1

W21 Dec 24A · Brentford2–04
L4 Dec 24A · Manchester City0–34
W14 Sep 24A · Liverpool1–04
D17 Aug 24H · Bournemouth1–11
W2 Apr 24H · Fulham3–11

Brighton9 with this referee

Record4-3-2 Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.0 Pens for · against3 · 0 Reds1

W1 Nov 25H · Leeds3–00
W10 May 25A · Wolves2–01
W25 Feb 25H · Bournemouth2–12
L15 Dec 24H · Crystal Palace1–31
D26 Oct 24H · Wolves2–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.