Nottingham Forest vs Fenerbahce – 26 Feb 2026

UEFA Europa League Knockout round play-offs Thu, Feb 26 · 20:00 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire

Nottingham Forest 1st · 3 pts · 1 played W

First leg3–0 1–2Full time

Fenerbahce 16th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Nottingham Forest were clear favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Nottingham Forest. Nottingham Forest had 4.3 days of rest, Fenerbahce 3.1 and had to travel 2,613 km.

Away travel2,613 kmRest days4.3 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 3

Nottingham Forest60%

Draw22%

Fenerbahce18%

Expected goals 2.03 – 1.02

Nottingham Forest45%

Draw27%

Fenerbahce28%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.16

Nottingham Forest58%

Draw23%

Fenerbahce19%

Expected goals 1.91 – 1.01

Nottingham Forest52%

Draw24%

Fenerbahce23%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.15

Nottingham Forest60%

Draw23%

Fenerbahce17%

Expected goals 1.96 – 0.97

Over 2.5 59% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMaurizio Mariani

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 102

Team strength

Nottingham Forest

Fenerbahce

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 65

70 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

68 AttackIn forecast 75

74 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nottingham Forest

Fenerbahce

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.68 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.35

60% Scored inContext 80%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

17.60 ShotsContext 14.60

5.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

30% On target shareContext 36%

10.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

57% Box shareContext 57%

8% ConversionContext 12%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.71

10.80 Shots allowedContext 11.80

3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.33 BlocksContext 3.00

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

68% Save rateContext 69%

47% PossessionIn forecast 60%

421 PassesContext 491

348 Accurate passesContext 425

83% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.90

11.10 FoulsContext 9.90

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nottingham Forest

Rest4.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km5,226 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fenerbahce

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel2,613 km1,807 km in 14d

Schedule load48%High

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nottingham Forest	Fenerbahce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	High · 48
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.3Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Feb	3.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 23 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,613 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	5,226 km	1,807 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 6	1 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

27S. Ortega(G)

5Murillo 4Morato 23Jair 3N. Williams

8E. Anderson 22R. Yates

21O. Hutchinson 16N. Domínguez 24J. McAtee

20L. Lucca

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI

3-5-2

13T. Çetin(G)

18M. Müldür 6M. Guendouzi 14Y. Demir

3A. Brown 5İ. Yüksek 17N. Kanté 70O. Aydın 45D. Nene

9M. Aktürkoğlu 26S. Chérif

+12 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nottingham Forest Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fenerbahce Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.13 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nottingham Forest+2.4 pp
Draw-1.2 pp
Fenerbahce-1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Nottingham Forest · Home No home games yet this season.

Fenerbahce · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Nottingham Forest wins0 draws0 Fenerbahce wins

Goals per game3.00 – 0.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%

19 Feb 2026Fenerbahce0–3Nottingham Forest

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nottingham Forest	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	3.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	3.05
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	59%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	56%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Nottingham Forest	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.70
Conceded per game	0.70	1.20
Match goals	2.00	2.90	3.05
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	59%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	60%	56%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nottingham Forest	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	9.00	3.00
Corners conceded	3.00	9.00
Match total	12.00	12.00	10.55
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	0.00	4.00
Opponent cards	4.00	0.00
Match total	4.00	4.00	4.00
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Nottingham Forest	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	5.60
Corners conceded	4.80	5.70
Match total	11.00	11.30	10.55
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	100% 10/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.80
Opponent cards	1.70	2.90
Match total	3.20	5.70	4.00
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Maurizio Mariani Italy · 102 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.94league 4.00

Red cards0.21league 0.08

Cards 5+39%league 42%

Fouls23.9league 23.3

Penalties0.24league 0.00

Home wins46%league 17%

Nottingham Forest

No previous matches with this referee.

Fenerbahce

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.