UEFA Europa League Matchday 8 Thu, Jan 29 · 20:00 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
Nottingham Forest 16th · 11 pts · 7 played
4–0Full time
Ferencvarosi TC 7th · 15 pts · 7 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Nottingham Forest were slight favourites.

Nottingham Forest were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 46). Nottingham Forest had 4.3 days of rest, Ferencvarosi TC 7 and had to travel 1,552 km.

Away travel1,552 kmRest days4.3 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1
Nottingham Forest59%
Draw23%
Ferencvarosi TC19%
Expected goals 1.98 – 1.04
Nottingham Forest56%
Draw24%
Ferencvarosi TC20%
Expected goals 1.81 – 0.99
Nottingham Forest57%
Draw23%
Ferencvarosi TC19%
Expected goals 1.90 – 1.02
Nottingham Forest51%
Draw25%
Ferencvarosi TC25%
Expected goals 1.76 – 1.17
Nottingham Forest58%
Draw23%
Ferencvarosi TC19%
Expected goals 1.95 – 1.03
Over 2.5 58% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)

No weather data yet

RefereeSebastian Gishamer
  • Cards per match 4.0
  • Penalties per match 0.24
  • Matches 37

Team strength

Nottingham ForestFerencvarosi TC
66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 46
70 Current StrengthIn forecast 57
68 AttackIn forecast 61
74 DefenceIn forecast 56
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nottingham Forest

Attack—
Defense risk—

Ferencvarosi TC

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nottingham ForestFerencvarosi TC
1.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.71
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.50
0.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.93
-0.40 Goals minus xGContext +0.21
71% Scored inContext 100%
43% Clean sheetsContext 14%
15.14 ShotsContext 11.57
6.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.86
42% On target shareContext 33%
9.57 Shots in the boxContext 8.71
65% Box shareContext 74%
10% ConversionContext 15%
1.75 OffsidesContext 1.83
6.29 Shots allowedContext 12.14
2.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.29
2.60 BlocksContext 3.57
1.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.29
53% Save rateContext 70%
54% PossessionIn forecast 46%
480 PassesContext 390
417 Accurate passesContext 312
87% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.91
14.43 FoulsContext 15.57
13.71 Fouls sufferedContext 9.71
2.43 Yellow cardsContext 2.57
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.50
1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.93
-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.40
60% Scored inContext 100%
30% Clean sheetsContext 20%
13.40 ShotsContext 12.50
4.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30
32% On target shareContext 34%
7.90 Shots in the boxContext 9.30
57% Box shareContext 73%
9% ConversionContext 15%
2.17 OffsidesContext 1.71
11.70 Shots allowedContext 11.70
3.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30
4.40 BlocksContext 3.44
2.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33
63% Save rateContext 68%
46% PossessionIn forecast 47%
428 PassesContext 374
355 Accurate passesContext 295
83% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.84 Team ratingContext 6.95
11.10 FoulsContext 16.50
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.60
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nottingham Forest
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,106 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Ferencvarosi TC
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,552 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Nottingham Forest Ferencvarosi TC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 25Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.3Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Jan7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,552 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways3,106 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 51 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one2.821

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
26M. Sels(G)
3N. Williams 4Morato 31N. Milenković 44Z. Abbott
6I. Sangaré 22R. Yates
14D. Ndoye 16N. Domínguez 24J. McAtee
19Igor Jesus
+8 more reported missing outside this XI
Ferencvarosi TC Confirmed XI
3-5-2
99D. Gróf(G)
22G. Szalai 27I. Cissé 23B. Ötvös
20Cadu 10J. Levi 36G. Kanichowsky 66Júlio Romão 25Č. Makreckis
16K. Zachariassen 11B. Yusuf
+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Nottingham Forest Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Ferencvarosi TC Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.12 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Nottingham Forest+1.2 pp
  • Draw-0.7 pp
  • Ferencvarosi TC-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Nottingham Forest · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-0-1
Scored
2.33
Conceded
1.00
Ferencvarosi TC · Away 2.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
1.67
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Nottingham ForestFerencvarosi TCForecast
Scored per game 1.571.71
Conceded per game 1.001.00
Match goals 2.572.71 3.02
Over 1.5 71%86%
Over 2.5 57%43% 58%
Over 3.5 29%29%
Both teams scored 43%86% 56%
Clean sheets 43%14%
Failed to score 29%0%
Games77
Nottingham ForestFerencvarosi TCForecast
Scored per game 1.101.71
Conceded per game 1.101.00
Match goals 2.202.71 3.02
Over 1.5 70%86%
Over 2.5 50%43% 58%
Over 3.5 10%29%
Both teams scored 40%86% 56%
Clean sheets 30%14%
Failed to score 40%0%
Games107

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Nottingham ForestFerencvarosi TCLeague
Corners
Corners won4.404.00
Corners conceded5.404.71
Match total9.808.719.07
Over 8.560% 3/557% 4/7
Over 9.560% 3/543% 3/7
Over 10.560% 3/529% 2/7
Cards
Cards2.572.71
Opponent cards2.002.00
Match total4.574.714.35
Over 3.586% 6/757% 4/7
Over 4.557% 4/743% 3/7
Nottingham ForestFerencvarosi TCLeague
Corners
Corners won4.803.90
Corners conceded4.604.10
Match total9.408.009.07
Over 8.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 9.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Over 10.550% 5/1020% 2/10
Cards
Cards1.802.70
Opponent cards2.002.20
Match total3.804.904.35
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sebastian Gishamer 37 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.73league 4.13
Red cards0.22league 0.21
Cards 5+35%league 42%
Fouls23.2league 24.2
Penalties0.24league 0.36
Home wins59%league 51%
Nottingham Forest

No previous matches with this referee.

Ferencvarosi TC

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Nottingham Forest7 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
1 0-15
5 2 16-30
1 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 61-75
3 2 76-90
Ferencvarosi TC7 games · scored 12 · conceded 7
1 0-15
2 16-30
3 31-45
4 46-60
3 2 61-75
2 2 76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1 1 0-15
1 1 16-30
4 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 2 76-90
Ferencvarosi TC10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
1 1 0-15
1 3 16-30
4 1 31-45
5 1 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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