Nottingham Forest vs Fulham – 15 Mar 2026

Premier League Gameweek 30 Sun, Mar 15 · 14:00 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire

Nottingham Forest 18th · 28 pts · 29 played LDLLD

0–0Full time

Fulham 12th · 40 pts · 29 played LLWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Nottingham Forest were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Nottingham Forest had 2.8 days of rest, Fulham 10.8 and had to travel 175 km.

Away travel175 kmRest days2.8 · 10.8Matches / 14d3 · 2

Nottingham Forest42%

Draw26%

Fulham33%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.38

Nottingham Forest41%

Draw27%

Fulham32%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.25

Nottingham Forest42%

Draw26%

Fulham33%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.38

Nottingham Forest34%

Draw26%

Fulham40%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.55

Nottingham Forest41%

Draw26%

Fulham32%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.29

Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)

No weather data yet

RefereeSamuel Barrott

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 78

Team strength

Nottingham Forest

Fulham

63 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

70 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

68 AttackIn forecast 66

74 DefenceIn forecast 68

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fulham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nottingham Forest

Fulham

0.97 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.38

1.48 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.48

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

1.51 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

55% Scored inContext 79%

21% Clean sheetsContext 17%

12.86 ShotsContext 12.24

4.07 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.89

31% On target shareContext 31%

7.72 Shots in the boxContext 8.46

62% Box shareContext 67%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.14 OffsidesContext 1.92

12.86 Shots allowedContext 11.76

4.28 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

4.54 BlocksContext 3.55

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.84

63% Save rateContext 68%

48% PossessionIn forecast 52%

416 PassesContext 478

344 Accurate passesContext 401

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.83

10.79 FoulsContext 11.10

11.79 Fouls sufferedContext 9.45

1.52 Yellow cardsContext 2.07

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.48 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

70% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 0%

17.70 ShotsContext 13.90

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

30% On target shareContext 32%

10.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

60% Box shareContext 68%

7% ConversionContext 11%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.50

11.20 Shots allowedContext 12.40

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.33 BlocksContext 3.40

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

63% Save rateContext 63%

47% PossessionIn forecast 53%

423 PassesContext 512

352 Accurate passesContext 436

83% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.20 FoulsContext 10.90

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 8.40

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nottingham Forest

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km673 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fulham

Rest10.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel175 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nottingham Forest	Fulham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 12 Mar	10.8Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	175 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	673 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.2	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

26M. Sels(G)

3N. Williams 5Murillo 31N. Milenković 34T. Aina

8E. Anderson 6I. Sangaré

10M. Gibbs-White 16N. Domínguez 7C. Hudson-Odoi

19Igor Jesus

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Fulham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Leno(G)

33A. Robinson 3C. Bassey 5J. Andersen 2K. Tete

16S. Berge 17A. Iwobi

14O. Bobb 24J. King 8H. Wilson

7R. Jiménez

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nottingham Forest Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fulham Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nottingham Forest+0.3 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Fulham-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Nottingham Forest · Home 0.93points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 3-4-7
Scored: 0.93
Conceded: 1.36

Fulham · Away 1.00points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 4-2-8
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 1.79

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Nottingham Forest	Fulham
Manchester City	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H	L 0–3 AL 4–5 H
Brighton	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
Liverpool	L 0–1 HW 3–0 A	D 2–2 H
Wolves	D 0–0 HW 1–0 A	W 3–0 H
Leeds	L 1–3 AW 3–1 H	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H
Crystal Palace	D 1–1 HD 1–1 A	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H
Brentford	W 2–0 AW 3–1 H	W 3–1 H
Arsenal	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A	L 0–1 H
West Ham	W 2–1 AL 0–3 H	L 0–1 HW 1–0 A
Aston Villa	L 1–3 A	L 1–3 A
Everton	L 0–2 HL 0–3 A	L 1–2 HL 0–2 A
Tottenham	W 3–0 H	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Manchester United	D 2–2 H	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H
Bournemouth	L 0–2 A	L 1–3 A
Chelsea	L 0–3 H	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A
Newcastle	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 A
Sunderland	L 0–1 H	W 3–1 AW 1–0 H
Burnley	D 1–1 A	W 3–2 A
Points	28 of 84 · 1.00 per game	37 of 84 · 1.32 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

2 Nottingham Forest wins0 draws7 Fulham wins

Goals per game0.78 – 2.11 Over 2.556% Both scored33% Clean sheets11% · 56%

22 Dec 2025Fulham1–0Nottingham Forest
15 Feb 2025Fulham2–1Nottingham Forest
28 Sep 2024Nottingham Forest0–1Fulham
2 Apr 2024Nottingham Forest3–1Fulham
6 Dec 2023Fulham5–0Nottingham Forest
11 Feb 2023Fulham2–0Nottingham Forest

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nottingham Forest	Fulham	Forecast
Scored per game	0.97	1.38
Conceded per game	1.48	1.48
Match goals	2.45	2.86	2.97
Over 1.5	79%	76%
Over 2.5	52%	59%	57%
Over 3.5	21%	28%
Both teams scored	41%	62%	60%
Clean sheets	21%	17%
Failed to score	45%	21%
Games	29	29

	Nottingham Forest	Fulham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.40
Conceded per game	1.20	1.60
Match goals	2.50	3.00	2.97
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	80%	57%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	60%
Clean sheets	30%	0%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nottingham Forest	Fulham	League
Corners
Corners won	5.45	4.69
Corners conceded	4.66	5.69
Match total	10.11	10.38	10.01
Over 8.5	76% 22/29	79% 23/29
Over 9.5	62% 18/29	69% 20/29
Over 10.5	45% 13/29	45% 13/29
Cards
Cards	1.55	2.07
Opponent cards	1.79	1.86
Match total	3.34	3.93	3.90
Over 3.5	41% 12/29	59% 17/29
Over 4.5	21% 6/29	45% 13/29

	Nottingham Forest	Fulham	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	4.60
Corners conceded	3.80	5.80
Match total	10.00	10.40	10.01
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.90
Opponent cards	1.40	2.60
Match total	2.70	4.50	3.90
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Samuel Barrott 78 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.62league 3.76

Red cards0.06league 0.12

Cards 5+29%league 39%

Fouls20.3league 21.6

Penalties0.24league 0.21

Home wins37%league 42%

Nottingham Forest9 with this referee

Record5-2-2 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W25 Jan 26A · Brentford2–00
W14 Dec 25H · Tottenham3–01
L26 Oct 25A · Bournemouth0–21
W18 May 25A · West Ham2–13
W14 Dec 24H · Aston Villa2–10

Fulham5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.2 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L7 Dec 25H · Crystal Palace1–20
D16 Aug 25A · Brighton1–13
W26 Dec 24A · Chelsea2–13
L16 Dec 23A · Newcastle0–33
W7 Oct 23H · Sheffield Utd3–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.