Nottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nottingham Forest were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Nottingham Forest had 2.8 days of rest, Leeds 8 and had to travel 97 km.
Away travel97 kmRest days2.8 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 1
Nottingham Forest43%
Draw26%
Leeds31%
Nottingham Forest42%
Draw27%
Leeds31%
Nottingham Forest43%
Draw26%
Leeds31%
Nottingham Forest36%
Draw26%
Leeds38%
Nottingham Forest43%
Draw27%
Leeds30%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)
No weather data yet
RefereeJarred Gillett
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 93
Team strength
Nottingham Forest
Leeds
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
73
68
AttackIn forecast
69
74
DefenceIn forecast
77
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLeeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Nottingham ForestLeeds
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.44
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
40%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.70
ShotsContext
12.20
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
32%
On target shareContext
29%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
66%
Box shareContext
63%
6%
ConversionContext
7%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.43
13.50
Shots allowedContext
10.20
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.13
BlocksContext
3.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
64%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
474
PassesContext
429
401
Accurate passesContext
354
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.70
11.70
FoulsContext
9.90
11.89
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.73
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
50%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.60
ShotsContext
12.20
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
35%
On target shareContext
29%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
65%
Box shareContext
63%
7%
ConversionContext
7%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.43
11.70
Shots allowedContext
10.20
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.78
BlocksContext
3.00
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
60%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
468
PassesContext
429
397
Accurate passesContext
354
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.70
13.00
FoulsContext
9.90
14.44
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nottingham Forest
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,206 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Leeds
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel97 km682 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nottingham Forest |
Leeds |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 33 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 97 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,206 km | 682 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
26M. Sels(G)
3N. Williams
5Murillo
31N. Milenković
37N. Savona
8E. Anderson
6I. Sangaré
16N. Domínguez
10M. Gibbs-White
14D. Ndoye
19Igor Jesus
Leeds
Confirmed XI
1Lucas Perri(G)
3G. Gudmundsson
15J. Bijol
6J. Rodon
2J. Bogle
18A. Stach
4E. Ampadu
8S. Longstaff
19N. Okafor
14L. Nmecha
11B. Aaronson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nottingham Forest
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Leeds
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nottingham Forest+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Leeds-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Nottingham Forest · Home
0.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Leeds · Away
0.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-4
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 2.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Nottingham Forest | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Newcastle | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Burnley | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–3 A | L 0–5 A |
| West Ham | L 0–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 15 · 0.20 per game | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Nottingham Forest wins0 draws1 Leeds wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 4 Apr 2023Leeds2–1Nottingham Forest
- 5 Feb 2023Nottingham Forest1–0Leeds
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 2.89 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 7.67 | 9.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.00 | 3.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 2.89 | |
| Match total | 10.44 | 7.67 | 9.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.00 | 3.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jarred Gillett 93 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 3.58
Red cards0.11league 0.10
Cards 5+38%league 38%
Fouls20.1league 21.9
Penalties0.22league 0.17
Home wins40%league 51%
Nottingham Forest8 with this referee
Record4-0-4
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W1 Apr 25H · Manchester United1–01
- L23 Feb 25A · Newcastle3–44
- L15 Dec 23H · Tottenham0–22
- W5 Nov 23H · Aston Villa2–01
- W26 Apr 23H · Brighton3–12
Leeds2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L23 Aug 25A · Arsenal0–52
- D9 Feb 22A · Aston Villa3–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 7 · conceded 19
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
4
46-60
61-75
8
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
4
4
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
61-75
2
5
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
