OH Leuven vs Genk – 6 Mar 2027

Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Mar 6 · 16:00 King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Heverlee

OH Leuven 15th · 5 pts · 8 played LLDWD

VS— Compare

Genk 7th · 12 pts · 8 played WDDLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel58 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

OH Leuven—%

Draw—%

Genk—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Heverlee)

Forecast from 19 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

OH Leuven

Genk

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

17 AttackIn forecast 46

30 DefenceIn forecast 50

25 Form indexContext 49

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

OH Leuven

Attack—

Defense risk—

Genk

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

OH Leuven

Genk

0.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 2.18

2.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.89

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.18

63% Scored inContext 75%

13% Clean sheetsContext 38%

12.75 ShotsContext 13.88

2.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

19% On target shareContext 36%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.38

69% Box shareContext 66%

6% ConversionContext 14%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.83

14.75 Shots allowedContext 13.50

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.75

5.14 BlocksContext 5.29

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

63% Save rateContext 67%

48% PossessionIn forecast 54%

418 PassesContext 499

329 Accurate passesContext 432

79% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.97

11.25 FoulsContext 11.25

11.38 Fouls sufferedContext 10.38

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.88

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.01 xGVia Att/Def 2.14

2.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.87

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext -0.34

60% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.70 ShotsContext 15.50

2.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

21% On target shareContext 37%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

70% Box shareContext 68%

6% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.75

15.00 Shots allowedContext 13.40

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

4.78 BlocksContext 5.11

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

66% Save rateContext 72%

47% PossessionIn forecast 54%

402 PassesContext 497

318 Accurate passesContext 429

79% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.74 Team ratingContext 7.01

10.90 FoulsContext 11.30

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

OH Leuven LLDWD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km220 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 25 · 5 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected

D11 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.3 xPts
W19 SepH · RAAL La Louvière2–01.5 xPts
D12 SepH · Cercle Brugge1–11.3 xPts
L6 SepA · SK Beveren0–31.1 xPts
L3 SepA · Gent0–10.6 xPts

Genk WDDLW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel58 km315 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 49 · 8 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected

W10 OctH · Kortrijk3–02.4 xPts
L20 SepA · Club Brugge KV0–30.9 xPts
D13 SepH · Gent1–11.7 xPts
D6 SepA · Anderlecht0–01.3 xPts
W28 AugH · SK Beveren4–02.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	OH Leuven	Genk
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 27 Feb	7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 27 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	58 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	220 km	315 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

OH Leuven Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Union St. Gilloise (A) 1–1, 11 Oct

13K. Vroman(G)

34R. Nyakossi 3Noë Dussenne 5J. Lawrence

99D. Opoku 8S. Schrijvers 6W. George 27Óscar Gil

21W. Balikwisha 18Robin Mirisola 24Ł. Łakomy

Genk Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Kortrijk (H) 3–0, 10 Oct

28L. Brughmans(G)

18J. Kayembe 44J. Kongolo 6M. Smets 20K. Amaro

8B. Heynen 38D. Heymans 4B. Tahirović

32N. Adedeji-Sternberg 17R. Durosinmi 10J. Ito

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

OH Leuven Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Genk Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

OH Leuven · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.50

Genk · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	OH Leuven	Genk
SK Beveren	L 0–3 A	W 4–0 H
Gent	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Club Brugge KV	L 0–3 H	L 0–3 A
Points	0 of 9 · 0.00 per game	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 OH Leuven wins1 draws4 Genk wins

Goals per game0.83 – 1.67 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 33%

23 May 2026OH Leuven0–2Genk
12 Apr 2026Genk0–0OH Leuven
30 Nov 2025Genk2–1OH Leuven
15 Aug 2025OH Leuven1–2Genk
31 Jan 2024OH Leuven2–1Genk
12 Nov 2023Genk3–1OH Leuven

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	OH Leuven	Genk
Scored per game	0.75	2.00
Conceded per game	1.75	1.50
Match goals	2.50	3.50
Over 1.5	88%	88%
Over 2.5	50%	75%
Over 3.5	13%	38%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Clean sheets	13%	38%
Failed to score	38%	25%
Games	8	8

	OH Leuven	Genk
Scored per game	0.90	2.20
Conceded per game	1.40	2.20
Match goals	2.30	4.40
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	80%
Over 3.5	10%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	60%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	OH Leuven	Genk	League
Corners
Corners won	3.25	3.88
Corners conceded	8.25	5.88
Match total	11.50	9.76	10.01
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	88% 7/8
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	63% 5/8	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.13	1.88
Opponent cards	1.63	2.00
Match total	3.76	3.88	3.36
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	38% 3/8

	OH Leuven	Genk	League
Corners
Corners won	3.60	4.60
Corners conceded	8.20	5.40
Match total	11.80	10.00	10.01
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.70
Opponent cards	1.50	1.80
Match total	3.20	3.50	3.36
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.