Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Mar 6 · 16:00 Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels
Union St. Gilloise 4th · 20 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Standard Liege 9th · 11 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel89 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Union St. Gilloise—%
Draw—%
Standard Liege—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Brussels)

Forecast from 19 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Union St. Gilloise and Standard Liege. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Union St. GilloiseStandard Liege
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
70 Current StrengthIn forecast 33
62 AttackIn forecast 29
74 DefenceIn forecast 29
73 Form indexContext 30
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

Standard Liege

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union St. GilloiseStandard Liege
2.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.63
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.63
1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.61
0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72
+1.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.02
88% Scored inContext 88%
63% Clean sheetsContext 25%
16.88 ShotsContext 13.50
7.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.88
42% On target shareContext 36%
13.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.75
78% Box shareContext 69%
16% ConversionContext 12%
2.75 OffsidesContext 2.43
11.13 Shots allowedContext 14.50
2.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.38
4.13 BlocksContext 4.29
2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86
81% Save rateContext 61%
53% PossessionIn forecast 52%
458 PassesContext 459
377 Accurate passesContext 365
82% Pass accuracyContext 79%
7.14 Team ratingContext 6.76
11.38 FoulsContext 9.88
11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 10.88
1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.13
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
1.40 xGVia Att/Def 1.58
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67
+0.90 Goals minus xGContext -0.08
90% Scored inContext 80%
60% Clean sheetsContext 20%
17.30 ShotsContext 12.70
7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80
41% On target shareContext 38%
13.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.30
75% Box shareContext 70%
13% ConversionContext 12%
2.78 OffsidesContext 2.33
11.90 Shots allowedContext 15.20
3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30
3.90 BlocksContext 4.67
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78
75% Save rateContext 61%
51% PossessionIn forecast 50%
461 PassesContext 433
379 Accurate passesContext 341
82% Pass accuracyContext 79%
7.12 Team ratingContext 6.76
11.90 FoulsContext 10.10
11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union St. Gilloise
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km164 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected
  • D15 OctH · Real Sociedad1–11.9 xPts
  • D11 OctH · OH Leuven1–12.7 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Antwerp2–02.1 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Plzen3–01.4 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Lommel United5–02.2 xPts
Standard Liege
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel89 km166 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 30 · 6 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected
  • L11 OctH · Charleroi0–11.4 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Gent1–20.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · KVC Westerlo2–41.4 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Antwerp1–01.7 xPts
  • W29 AugA · OH Leuven2–11.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union St. Gilloise Standard Liege
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 27 Feb7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 27 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km89 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways164 km166 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union St. Gilloise Last XI · not confirmed
3-1-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 1–1, 15 Oct
12H. Koffi(G)
55Nikki Havenaar 29M. Sylla 4N. Chibani
6K. Van de Perre
11G. da Silva Carvalho 28D. Olaru 23B. Zeneli 27L. Patris
38R. Mofokeng 9Mateo Biondic
Standard Liege Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Charleroi (H) 0–1, 11 Oct
1M. Epolo(G)
3Gustav Mortensen 25I. Hautekiet 20I. Karamoko 13M. Fossey
84R. Touzghar 22A. Trouillet 94C. Nielsen
11A. Abid 10D. Eckert Ayensa 17Bernard Nguene

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union St. Gilloise Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Standard Liege Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Union St. Gilloise · Home 2.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-2-0
Scored
2.25
Conceded
0.25
Standard Liege · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentUnion St. GilloiseStandard Liege
OH Leuven D 1–1 H W 2–1 A
Antwerp W 2–0 A W 1–0 H
Charleroi W 3–2 A L 0–1 H
KVC Westerlo W 5–1 A L 2–4 A
Points10 of 12 · 2.50 per game6 of 12 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 Union St. Gilloise wins1 draws0 Standard Liege wins
Goals per game1.75 – 0.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%
  • 14 Feb 2026Standard Liege1–1Union St. Gilloise
  • 16 Aug 2025Union St. Gilloise3–0Standard Liege
  • 25 Feb 2024Union St. Gilloise2–1Standard Liege
  • 4 Aug 2023Standard Liege0–1Union St. Gilloise

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Union St. GilloiseStandard LiegeForecast
Scored per game 2.751.63
Conceded per game 0.501.63
Match goals 3.253.25
Over 1.5 88%75%
Over 2.5 63%63%
Over 3.5 38%38%
Both teams scored 38%63%
Clean sheets 63%25%
Failed to score 13%13%
Games88
Union St. GilloiseStandard LiegeForecast
Scored per game 2.301.40
Conceded per game 0.701.40
Match goals 3.002.80
Over 1.5 90%70%
Over 2.5 60%50%
Over 3.5 30%30%
Both teams scored 40%60%
Clean sheets 60%30%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union St. GilloiseStandard LiegeLeague
Corners
Corners won5.886.00
Corners conceded3.255.00
Match total9.1311.0010.01
Over 8.563% 5/863% 5/8
Over 9.550% 4/850% 4/8
Over 10.538% 3/850% 4/8
Cards
Cards1.881.25
Opponent cards1.881.25
Match total3.762.503.36
Over 3.550% 4/825% 2/8
Over 4.525% 2/80% 0/8
Union St. GilloiseStandard LiegeLeague
Corners
Corners won4.805.50
Corners conceded3.905.40
Match total8.7010.9010.01
Over 8.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 9.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 10.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards2.001.50
Opponent cards1.901.70
Match total3.903.203.36
Over 3.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Union St. Gilloise7 games · scored 17 · conceded 4
1 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
4 46-60
3 61-75
4 76-90
Standard Liege8 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
2 1 0-15
1 16-30
2 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
1 6 76-90
Union St. Gilloise9 games · scored 18 · conceded 7
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
4 2 76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2 2 0-15
2 16-30
3 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
6 2 61-75
1 7 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
OH Leuven Genk Mar 616:00 KVC Westerlo Anderlecht Mar 616:00 KV Mechelen Kortrijk Mar 616:00 Club Brugge KV SK Beveren Mar 616:00 Zulte Waregem Cercle Brugge Mar 616:00 Gent Charleroi Mar 616:00 St. Truiden Antwerp Mar 616:00 Union St. Gilloise Standard Liege Mar 616:00 RAAL La Louvière Lommel United Mar 616:00