Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Mar 20 · 16:00 King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Heverlee
OH Leuven 15th · 5 pts · 8 played
First leg1–1 VS— Compare
Union St. Gilloise 4th · 20 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel24 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
OH Leuven—%
Draw—%
Union St. Gilloise—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Heverlee)

Forecast from 5 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

OH LeuvenUnion St. Gilloise
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
18 Current StrengthIn forecast 70
17 AttackIn forecast 62
30 DefenceIn forecast 74
25 Form indexContext 73
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

OH Leuven

Attack—
Defense risk—

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

OH LeuvenUnion St. Gilloise
0.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.75
1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.32
2.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98
-0.32 Goals minus xGContext +1.43
63% Scored inContext 88%
13% Clean sheetsContext 63%
12.75 ShotsContext 16.88
2.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.13
19% On target shareContext 42%
8.50 Shots in the boxContext 13.50
69% Box shareContext 78%
6% ConversionContext 16%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.75
14.75 Shots allowedContext 11.13
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.75
5.14 BlocksContext 4.13
3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.43
63% Save rateContext 81%
48% PossessionIn forecast 53%
418 PassesContext 458
329 Accurate passesContext 377
79% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.72 Team ratingContext 7.14
11.25 FoulsContext 11.38
11.38 Fouls sufferedContext 11.75
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.75
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70
1.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.40
2.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96
-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.90
60% Scored inContext 90%
10% Clean sheetsContext 60%
12.70 ShotsContext 17.30
2.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
21% On target shareContext 41%
8.60 Shots in the boxContext 13.20
70% Box shareContext 75%
6% ConversionContext 13%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.78
15.00 Shots allowedContext 11.90
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40
4.78 BlocksContext 3.90
3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
66% Save rateContext 75%
47% PossessionIn forecast 51%
402 PassesContext 461
318 Accurate passesContext 379
79% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.74 Team ratingContext 7.12
10.90 FoulsContext 11.90
11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

OH Leuven
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km201 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 25 · 5 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
  • D11 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.3 xPts
  • W19 SepH · RAAL La Louvière2–01.5 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Cercle Brugge1–11.3 xPts
  • L6 SepA · SK Beveren0–31.1 xPts
  • L3 SepA · Gent0–10.6 xPts
Union St. Gilloise
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel24 km176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected
  • D15 OctH · Real Sociedad1–11.9 xPts
  • D11 OctH · OH Leuven1–12.7 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Antwerp2–02.1 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Plzen3–01.4 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Lommel United5–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
OH Leuven Union St. Gilloise
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 13 Mar7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 13 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km24 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways201 km176 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one1414

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

OH Leuven Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Union St. Gilloise (A) 1–1, 11 Oct
13K. Vroman(G)
34R. Nyakossi 3Noë Dussenne 5J. Lawrence
99D. Opoku 8S. Schrijvers 6W. George 27Óscar Gil
21W. Balikwisha 18Robin Mirisola 24Ł. Łakomy
Union St. Gilloise Last XI · not confirmed
3-1-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 1–1, 15 Oct
12H. Koffi(G)
55Nikki Havenaar 29M. Sylla 4N. Chibani
6K. Van de Perre
11G. da Silva Carvalho 28D. Olaru 23B. Zeneli 27L. Patris
38R. Mofokeng 9Mateo Biondic

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
OH Leuven Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Union St. Gilloise Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

OH Leuven · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.50
Union St. Gilloise · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
3.25
Conceded
0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentOH LeuvenUnion St. Gilloise
Charleroi L 1–3 A W 3–2 A
Points0 of 3 · 0.00 per game3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

0 OH Leuven wins2 draws3 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game0.40 – 2.60 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets20% · 60%
  • 11 Oct 2026Union St. Gilloise1–1OH Leuven
  • 24 Jan 2026OH Leuven0–0Union St. Gilloise
  • 3 Aug 2025Union St. Gilloise5–0OH Leuven
  • 2 Mar 2024OH Leuven0–2Union St. Gilloise
  • 12 Aug 2023Union St. Gilloise5–1OH Leuven

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

OH LeuvenUnion St. GilloiseForecast
Scored per game 0.752.75
Conceded per game 1.750.50
Match goals 2.503.25
Over 1.5 88%88%
Over 2.5 50%63%
Over 3.5 13%38%
Both teams scored 50%38%
Clean sheets 13%63%
Failed to score 38%13%
Games88
OH LeuvenUnion St. GilloiseForecast
Scored per game 0.902.30
Conceded per game 1.400.70
Match goals 2.303.00
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 40%60%
Over 3.5 10%30%
Both teams scored 40%40%
Clean sheets 30%60%
Failed to score 30%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

OH LeuvenUnion St. GilloiseLeague
Corners
Corners won3.255.88
Corners conceded8.253.25
Match total11.509.1310.01
Over 8.575% 6/863% 5/8
Over 9.563% 5/850% 4/8
Over 10.563% 5/838% 3/8
Cards
Cards2.131.88
Opponent cards1.631.88
Match total3.763.763.36
Over 3.575% 6/850% 4/8
Over 4.525% 2/825% 2/8
OH LeuvenUnion St. GilloiseLeague
Corners
Corners won3.604.80
Corners conceded8.203.90
Match total11.808.7010.01
Over 8.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 9.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 10.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.702.00
Opponent cards1.501.90
Match total3.203.903.36
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.520% 2/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

OH Leuven8 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
2 31-45
3 46-60
1 3 61-75
1 5 76-90
Union St. Gilloise7 games · scored 17 · conceded 4
1 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
4 46-60
3 61-75
4 76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
1 0-15
3 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 46-60
1 3 61-75
1 5 76-90
Union St. Gilloise9 games · scored 18 · conceded 7
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
4 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Lommel United Antwerp Mar 2016:00 OH Leuven Union St. Gilloise Mar 2016:00 KVC Westerlo Cercle Brugge Mar 2016:00 KV Mechelen Charleroi Mar 2016:00 Anderlecht Standard Liege Mar 2016:00 Club Brugge KV Gent Mar 2016:00 Zulte Waregem Kortrijk Mar 2016:00 St. Truiden SK Beveren Mar 2016:00 RAAL La Louvière Genk Mar 2016:00